Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Frontier Developments Plc LSE:FDEV London Ordinary Share GB00BBT32N39 ORD 0.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -25.00 -0.75% 3,300.00 97,419 16:29:57
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
3,300.00 3,310.00 3,350.00 3,240.00 3,325.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Software & Computer Services 76.09 16.22 41.30 79.9 1,284
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:44:40 O 5 3,281.672 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
13/1/202117:07Frontier Developments - Elite gaming.....6,124

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Frontier Developments Daily Update: Frontier Developments Plc is listed in the Software & Computer Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FDEV. The last closing price for Frontier Developments was 3,325p.
Frontier Developments Plc has a 4 week average price of 2,890p and a 12 week average price of 2,290p.
The 1 year high share price is 3,410p while the 1 year low share price is currently 952p.
There are currently 38,911,810 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 142,689 shares. The market capitalisation of Frontier Developments Plc is £1,284,089,730.
adamb1978: Just had a look at my forecasts and those which are showing on Capital IQ (S&P database). Given the clear guide on revenue, the biggest disparity and difference of opinion will come from the margins assumed. FDEV increased EBITDA margins to 44% for FY20 up from 34% the year before however consensus forecasts have them reducing back to 39% for FY22 and FY23. Those margins, according to Capital IQ, drive 71p EPS in FY22 and 85p EPS in FY23. Each % point of EBITDA margin drives around 3p-4p EPS. Also worth noting that the Cap IQ figures are post share based payments...and the forecasts generally need you to have a view on operating leverage and capitalised vs expenses R&D. My figures assume EBIT margins increasing a couple % points from FY21 to FY22 and EPS in 80s that year and around 100p in FY23. Are those multiples justified? I think so given the rapid growth of the business and the fact that with the increased number of titles, earnings will be a lot more consistent going forwards.
adamb1978: Excellent TS this morning! Upgrades revenue expectations for FY21 despite titles moving to FY22 and in effect gives guidance for Fy22. They quote analyst forecasts for Fy22 but then say that the titles for this year which have moved into FY22 supplement that guidance. Big, big news in it for me is that this guidance really unpins the share price for the next 18 months. The price had run up very strongly but the FY22 revenue guidance even without titles moving from FY21 to FY22 would translate into EPS in the 80p-100p range, meaning the 3300p share price is arguably cheap given the growth. Very, very good news
adamb1978: Agreed p1nkfish, and the way I rationalise it is that my financial position and risk tolerence is now in a better position than a couple years ago (re school fees, mortgage, work etc). Therefore I'm far more likely to now run another FDEV/BOO assuming I stumble on one P.S. My current best bet for 10-bagger is MXCT. In at 170p, now 460p and think it could go up 10x from here over say 5 years
endion: There is quite a fair bit of hype surrounding the first person shooter mechanics being introduced by Elite: Odysssey. This may explain some of the strength shown in the share price. Mix that in with wider market conditions, the bearish outlook for many co's due to covid, but gaming sector largely up and seen as a safe haven. I would normally have expected a bit more consolidation around this area, but the situation is such that the share price has been well supported and driven.
adamb1978: Presumably the share price action over the last couple weeks is linked to the CDM offer - an assumption that FDEV is next
p1nkfish: I think the outsourcing is extra labour, which is a bottleneck. A spec is written and the "grunt" to deliver the spec is via outsourced labour. No strings just more horsepower when needed to speed up growth. Tools used, could be FDEVs own or product delivered in a format that can be integrated. Acquisitions - more headcount or nascent titles? May even be enhancing the FDEV publishing capabilities for all I know. Sounds like a strategy that needs opportune time to execute on. So long as caution is the word then sounds OK to me and could help accelerate FDEV.
adamb1978: Just had a proper look at the figures given that I was away last week when the TU came out. Personally I think their guidance, given after just 3 months into the financial year, is likely to be on the conservative side as thats how they've historically operated. Therefore it wouldnt surprise me if turnover comes in in excess of £100m for the year, which pushes EPS above 50p. Looking longer-term to thikn about valuation, they're continuing to progress towards being a c.£200m revenue business which I'd expect in 3 years or so. The larger industry participants trade on between 5.5x and 7.7x revenues, so if you assume FDEV trade at the lower end of htat range you'd get a 2900p share price. That said, whilst you could argue that the leaders warrant a higher multiple for defensive nature, FDEV will be faster growing which should lead to a higher multiple. All in all though, I've held this for 3 years and since 330p and happy to hold for another 3 years.
adamb1978: Need to go through my figures again later however I think we now have reasonably decent visibility over where this will get to in the next 3 years. I think turnover will be in the £170 - £200m range in FY23, giving EPS potentially in the 100p-130p range. I can see fdev share price comfortably getting to 2500p-3000p per share in that time-frame, assuming it doesnt get taken out before then. Happy to hold!
mark4231: I have RNS emailed to me for companies I'm interested in. I saw an F1 related RNS but didn't open it, as assumed it was some minor thing related to Codemasters - will look later I thought, totally not noticing it was an FDEV RNS. Only when I saw the big rise in FDEV share price this morning did I go hunting for the reason. :-) lol Well done FDEV! Wow!
rar100: I guess that Swedbank see the share price low, and as this has been a cyclical share insofar as when a new game comes out the share price goes up, but then the next year doesn't have a new game, the share price goes down. So last revenue was 34mil (2018), The next - Sept '19. results projection 83 mil (2020 results drop down to 68). That's the ONLY reason I'm holding. Maybe at this share price it is a good bet, that come Sept. the share price will rise dramatically, if I wasn't already invested, I'd maybe bet on it with throw away money, but I just want to cut losses if I can and forget FDEV, I have zero confidence in them and their business strategy. So does the market hence the low volumes. The existing products maybe fine, but there seems to be nothing really new, same old doesn't inspire...
Frontier Developments share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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