Flybe Share Discussion Threads

[s34icknote] 04/3/2018 20:28

May be stobart have big plans for Southend airport . Would be interesting to see how busy the smaller airports get in ten years time ! Sicknote

[sporazene2] 04/3/2018 20:16

I personally doubt if valuing the slots is how Stobart or any other potential buyer will be seeing. IMO, towards the top of the list for Stobart will be how they can capitalise on Southend with Flybe. the airport is closer to London(just) than Stansted yet stansted carries 20x more passengers. Southend passengers numbers to major european cities is very small, approx half of the passengers have travelled to holiday destinations.

[netcurtains] 04/3/2018 20:00

..so Jerseyman1: You're saying FlyBe's Hearthow Slots and its London City Slots dont have any value or they are worth a bomb??? I dont think you have really explained it well.. On paper they are worh about £200 Million (or so)... but perhaps not. You sort of saying the London slots are worth a fortune - so therefore FlyBe must be worth a fortune....????

[s34icknote] 04/3/2018 19:55

I would have thought all slots would have some value. Even regional slots . Although I have no real knowledge . Do you still have to buy regional slots ? Would stobart have to buy regional slots to enter the market if they don't take control of flybe ?Great debate and thank you for all your posts . My aim was accessing the true asset value of flybe Sicknote

[jerseyman1] 04/3/2018 19:50

Gatwick and Heathrow are effectively full, Gatwick less so other than at popular times, which depend on the destination at the other end. Manchester, Edinburgh etc not so full hence no real value in slots. Value depends on availability and how much profit you can make on the route you use them for, hence Heathrow with mostly long haul can make £30-50m per slot pair per route, Gatwick is generally shorter haul and less business traffic which is high yield hence less profit per slot pair hence lower price for slots.It's all about supply and demand.

[netcurtains] 04/3/2018 18:23

portugull: Sorry I'm no avaiation expert - can you tell me why Flybe's Heathrow slots to Edinburgh have no value? I would have thought slots in Heathrow are worth money as are slots in Edinburgh and Manchester and all the rest. Why are Gatwicks slots of value and Heathrow not of value etc etc...

Either you're writing bollx or, more likely, its my lack of aviation understanding.

Can you explain in a bit more detail why Gatwick is worth money and nothing else is???

[portugull] 04/3/2018 17:49

S34icknote on the subject of slots Flybe sold their LGW slots to EZJ about 3 years ago for £20 million. These were the only slots of real value.

[cashandcard] 04/3/2018 17:39

As for EZJ or RYA coming in, I doubt it very much. Does not match their model, will add new aircraft type which is against the most fundamental principle of LCC's. There might be synergies in a number of bases, but still too much of a gap in the model. It would make sense for a national/legacy airline to take over so they can funnel traffic from the regions into their hubs serving long haul routes. Therefore, I would expect to see more interest from the likes of IAG, Airfrance, Lufthansa or others. I would rule out holiday groups like TUI, TCG, Jet2 (DTG) as it does not match their model.Cash

[s34icknote] 04/3/2018 17:30

All getting rather interesting . Just guessing how the institution that hold the shares and the board will look at it . Surely they would not sell below asset level ? That would give a 70 p starting block ?Or am I being a tad ambitious ?I do believe flybe will turn itself round and is well on its way . I've seen a lot of bombed out sticks recover !I don't think stobart will get a second opportunity to take flybe over . All in my opinion of course . Having bought in at 34p mid Jan and topped up at 42/43p . Any thoughts on easy jet or Ryan air or wizz air expanding for small change ?Sicknote

[anony mous] 04/3/2018 16:47

sickThat's good detective work.It does make sense though.

[cashandcard] 04/3/2018 16:28

S34icknote,Monarch was a different situation. It was breakup value to the highest bidder - which is why the sum of the parts achieved good takeout prices.Flybe is not a breakup situation, so in my opinion, it will not benefit from good 'parts' valuations as the entity looking to takeover wants to continue running and intergrate the operation. I see a straight cash or cash/shares offer based on prevailing/recent market value. I see that as being around 60p, possibly higher if a competitor steps in.Cash

[s34icknote] 04/3/2018 14:06

Accounts state net assets at 153 million . So guess fifty percent higher than current price gives us 70pDo we know if the slots are included in this net asset figure ? Sicknote

[s34icknote] 04/3/2018 13:52

Flybe Slots post from lse I did a wikipedia and flybe has 210 destinations. By comparison monarch had 45 destinations. Monarch liquidators sold Gatwick and Luton slots for £50MM+ and let's say in total £60MM roughly!! So in absence of any other data pro-rata 45 monarch destinations to 210 flybe destinations say x5. So would it be fair to say (considering the quality of some of the Heathrow, Manchester, Birmingham slots particularly) that we should as a MINIMUM expect a value of 5×£60MM= £300MM for the slots IN ADDITION to the revised £150MM asset value calculated before. I think that would be a fair and logical assessment, meaning the share price asset value is .... drum roll... 4.5x company capitalization=200p + Blimey... no wonder Stobart are desperate (oops i mean playing the gentlemen's game). What a bargain!!! Let's call Warren and see what he says and equally i welcome anyone else's opinion on this.

[s34icknote] 02/3/2018 20:32

Evening net .Do you think easy jet or Ryan air could make a move for flybe ?A bit like supermarkets buying small express stores ?Sicknote N a I

[ali47fish] 02/3/2018 19:43

thanks Toff- how silly i am not thinking of it!

[netcurtains] 02/3/2018 19:43

ali47fish: All risks are relative to other risks. Its only possible to say what you should do with the money you now have if we know the other options you are considering so we can make a comparison? We certainly know that other people think FlyBe is a good risk as they are buying the stock in relatiely large quantities. I mean someone bought £46,000 at about 4pm (100,000 shares) so people do obviously like the risk. Only you know your other options so none of us can really give you any advice - at the end of the day, we all live and die alone and when it comes to the crunch we all trade alone. Good luck! Via FLYBE!!!

[toffeeman] 02/3/2018 19:00

I expect an offer - but it may not come.

If it doesn't then the price will drop back to c 30p.

So if you buy more now you MAY be ok - but you could be down (another) 30% if no bid materialises

[ali47fish] 02/3/2018 18:54

if my average purchase price is 111p then surely the current share price good opprutunity to average down before the offer comes- please comment if this makes sense!

[hippo] 02/3/2018 18:13

Would not surprise me to see an offer next week.....all a question of how much they have already secured through talks.Hope it don't go less than 60p

[toffeeman] 02/3/2018 17:20

50p is next key level - it seems to have held 44 quite well.

[s34icknote] 02/3/2018 16:43

A good finish into weekend.Slow march next week to 50p and the deadline looms and the herds realise how cheap this is !Sicknote N a I Safe travel all

[uk2day] 02/3/2018 16:16

looks ready to blow!!!!!

[sporazene2] 02/3/2018 16:08

decent volume today, a close above the recent high would be nice

[s34icknote] 02/3/2018 15:29

Moving back up nicely .Sicknote

[phillis] 02/3/2018 10:11

Stobart not saving up its pennies then