Flybe Share Discussion Threads

[europa79] 31/1/2018 17:12

Even finish today - a tad disappointing but not a bad thing!

[europa79] 31/1/2018 12:50

I'm happy with that RNS (for a change!)
This is a buy!!

[phillis] 31/1/2018 12:41

In her concluding statement C O-W mentions "strong" progress and "strong" unit revenue performance
Quite a bullish tone

[owenski] 31/1/2018 11:30

Thanks for that post DS

[netcurtains] 31/1/2018 11:15

phew I called that right (for once)

[kumala] 31/1/2018 11:07

:)Looking better these last two weeks with steady upward momentum, esp. Today considering lots of red on my screens inc. Individual stock and ftse index's alike. So far so good today. Strong blue stansing out against a lota red.Regards to allPs. Interesting looking numbers.K

[dangersimpson2] 31/1/2018 10:33

One of the good news about the latest Flybe disclosures is you can pretty much work out what the current results are on target for.

Although 12.2% increase in cost per seat for Q3 sounds high this is actually less that costs increased in H1 (in part due to increased maintenance already reported) which means that I reckon they made a profit for Q3 of around £4.5m. This is actually a good result given that this quarter has almost always been loss making in the past.

Based on the forward data on Q4 if they can hold a similar cost per seat in Q4 then the FY will look something like this:


17/18 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FYSeat Capacity (m) 3.4 3.5 3.0 2.9 12.8Passenger Numbers (m) 2.4 2.8 2.3 2.2 9.7 Load Factor 72.5% 80.0% 75.8% 75.3% 75.7% Passenger Revenue (£m) 174.0 204.9 158.8 200.8 738.5 Revenue per Pass. (£) 71.33 75.63 69.81 73.39 76.10Revenue per Seat (£) 51.18 58.54 52.93 68.74 57.60Cost Per Seat (£) 59.43 59.43 56.70 56.70 58.17 Cost (£m) 202.1 208.0 170.1 165.6 745.8 Passenger Revenue (£m) 174 204.9 160.6 161.5 700.9White Label Rev. (£m) 8.3 11.3 9.5 9.8 38.8Other Revenue (£m) 10.1 10.1 4.5 4.5 29.1Total Revenue 192.3 226.2 174.6 175.7 768.8 PBT (£m) -9.8 18.2 4.5 10.1 23.0



Keeping same cost per seat in Q4 is probably a bit aggressive and with FlyBe there is always the chance that something will go wrong! But so far the market has failed to run the numbers & spot that these Q3 results are actually pretty good news.

[owenski] 31/1/2018 08:50

I think the next Flybe disappointment, which seems to be standard with this company, will be fuel costs, hedging and FX translation. I believe that TU contains a veiled warning to this.

No reason to buy at present IMO

[netcurtains] 31/1/2018 08:41

whole market down. Nothing to do with flybe. Figs good.

[anony mous] 31/1/2018 08:33

Numbers are good, infact the best they have ever been.Not sure what would ever move the share price here.If it goes below 30p then i will be selling my lot at massive loss. Had enough and been holding 4yrs.

[toffeeman] 31/1/2018 08:22

So not good enough it seems - a tad baffling - as Dahhad says looks like it's the cost per seat.

[toffeeman] 31/1/2018 08:05

4 minutes into the trading session and just one PI trade shows how off the radar this is.

[s34icknote] 31/1/2018 07:43

Looks positive to me !Sicknote

[dahhad] 31/1/2018 07:12

Encouraging with the exception of the increase in cost per seat which seems to have increased more than customer revenue which presumably (?) will affect margins. Year-end will be interesting?

[toffeeman] 30/1/2018 19:09

We'll know at 07.00 tomorrow

If they have finished with the IT spend (doubtful)
sorted out the maintenance as a one-off (best would be a two off)
improved load factors (most likely)

then this should fly:)

But I am not holding my breath.

[dahhad] 30/1/2018 17:21

Surely we are due one set of trading results that don't contain bad news!! Or maybe that is just wishful thinking - yet again!!

[toffeeman] 29/1/2018 17:31

Key resistance levels (still)

38
40
44

[s34icknote] 29/1/2018 16:43

Looking good !Sicknote

[spursspurs] 29/1/2018 16:00

Well at least its finally moving in the right direction, can only buy 20000 at 36.67
can sell 100000 at 35.8!

[dangersimpson2] 29/1/2018 13:17

They managed to hit 80% load factor in Q2 but of course that is the strongest quarter. Q3 & Q4 should benefit from the smaller fleet so could be close if routes continue to mature as expected.

The real issue with H1 17/18 was that they spent an extra £15m on maintenance vs H1 16/17. They spent more on maintenance in H1 than the whole of FY16/17. If this is a one off to improve the fleet this shouldn't be an issue however if this is ongoing cost then this will impact profitability.

IMO they either need to show significant growth or greater cost control. At the moment they are stuck somewhere in between with decent revenue growth but costs growing at the same rate. Of course some of the new CEO's initiatives may take time to bed in but I would like there to be a greater sense of defined strategy. e.g. flagging improved maintenance as strategic priority ahead of time rather than announcing to the market 'oops we've spent more than planned.'

[toffeeman] 29/1/2018 11:19

If FLybe could get average occupancy of 80% then this would be flying :)

[mill5ey] 29/1/2018 10:02

Something similar for me, I've been holding stock that I bought at 75p, the price has never got close since.
Have to wonder what Flybe need to do to get the stock price to rise, of the options above which other airline would want this business (or perhaps the slots)? If there is to be a big time recovery where is that opportunity likely to come from? Going bust doesn't seem likely, every flight I've been on recently has been at least 80% full. The recent code-sharing venture with Eastern is not likely to yield much really, most of their flights were empty, I just don't see where the new business opps are? Having said that, I really hope this airline doesn't go away because flying within the UK and being able to use small and regional airports is fantastic! I'm in and out of Southampton and Leeds fairly regularly, it's so much faster and easier than any of the hub airports - this is where time is saved and lost compared to driving or using the train.

[toffeeman] 29/1/2018 08:37

Trading statement Wednesday

[lullabite] 28/1/2018 01:54

What about the Rising fuel cost on an upcoming bull oil market ?