Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[sarahbudd] 15/4/2021 13:34

Lovely dividend, but aargh all that tax!

[bellbottom] 15/4/2021 13:02

I suppose it's a Catch-22 situation. Under NATO guidelines or rules, membership of NATO is not possible whilst there are territorial disputes with neighbouring countries. Putin already knows this and only has to maintain the instability for Ukraine to remain outside NATO.

It's been nearly thirteen years since NATO agreed that Ukraine would eventually be admitted as a member and seven years since Russia 'invaded' and effectively scuppered any possibility of a consensus amongst existing members. As long as Russia keeps up its war against Ukraine, there may be support from UK/US/EU but NO NATO membership.

BB

[sf5] 15/4/2021 10:22

BBC has a more pragmatic view on the sabre-rattling

[bellbottom] 15/4/2021 09:11

I note all 30 NATO states have universally condemned Russian aggression and build up of troops and military hardware.

[bellbottom] 15/4/2021 08:48

Yes, excellent article r9505571 - I suppose 'passportisation' policy should be included under the umbrella term of 'hybrid war' as it destabilises Donbas and Luhansk regions. The Russian government have successfully used this strategy elsewhere before.
NATO or the EU's answer might be to not recognise these passports but how they would monitor and judge would prove problematic. Maybe we should all be dishing out passports like candies.

I notice that the online versions of The Daily Mail and The Mirror are consistently reporting the potential invasion stats. I'm no fan of either media outlet!





And the US has cancelled deployment of its two destroyers to The Black Sea.



BB

[podgyted] 15/4/2021 00:48

Well China may say this and China might say that but spot iron ore prices currently are at worst stable at elevated levels or drifting up in the case of 65% content.

[r9505571] 14/4/2021 20:08

Good reading on it here...https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020C41/

[r9505571] 14/4/2021 20:06

I don't think either side has any appetite for war here. It doesn't benefit anymore. It is a Great War 'exercise' for Putin and the Russian army. But will bring all parties to table. Putin will get what he wants I guess by the sheer might of his army. He hasn't dished out over 200,000 passports for nothing. passportisation has worked in the past in Georgia and Moldova. counteracting, in the long term, both Russia's population decline and shortages in its labour market.

[r9505571] 14/4/2021 19:45

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/warships-heading-black-sea-warned-23908182.amp

[bozzy_s] 14/4/2021 16:08

The pellet price keeps on climbing. At $170 - $180 we were thinking it'd be great to stay here for a while before dropping back. Now it's at $267! It can fall 10% - 20% and FXPO will still be trading on a P/E of under 3.

Was hoping to buy at 350-360 ish with dividend money. Looks like I'll have to wait a bit.

[bellbottom] 14/4/2021 15:23

Interesting to try and get some alternative views. This from TASS, the Russian news Agency, claiming Western destabilisation of Crimea.




Whatever the truth of the whole troubling situation, it will require give and take on both sides. I am not sure that will happen. More likely a continuation of the hybrid war and issuing of fake news and denials and cover ups. The only alternative to that is some kind of war situation, either controlled/limited or a quick but massively destructive war that sets new boundaries.

I just hope that all parties are sincere in trying to reach what must be a compromise.
What that compromise is, I have no idea. Trouble is there is an inevitability where big boys with big boy's toys are one day going to use them.

The global spend on military is going to be around two trillion dollars for 2021. Almost half of that ($989 billion)will be spent by the USA.

BB

[r9505571] 14/4/2021 14:59

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-ukraine-on-doorstep-war-23910447.amp

[bellbottom] 14/4/2021 11:34

To be clear. I still have a holding in FXPO, having retained a few thousand.

BB

[bellbottom] 14/4/2021 08:33

Hi Bozzy,

Thanks I'll have a look at AAZ.

Agree, likelihood of invasion is slight, in my opinion, but still a possibility. Just been listening the BBC Radio 4 comments on situation. Muscle flexing as a warning and testing the waters. However, I can't see any deal being done in the near future. I expect more of the same subterfuge and 'hybrid' warmongering to generally undermine. But this has not had any success in Donbass since 2014. Ukraine has held fast. It is a stalemate there and that makes it more likely that it will either escalate or deescalate. To deescalate, Putin needs to get out without losing face. To escalate, needs a more traditional invasion policy. Which will happen, I don't know, but under the circumstances I have temporarily de-risked.

If I was Putin I would be negotiating to pull out of Ukraine with a deal done to keep Crimea and have it recognised as part of Russia and associated sanctions lifted. Ukraine of course would not agree to this but membership of Nato for Ukraine would be part of the deal with both Russia and Ukraine having to agree to these terms. Just my thoughts on what could be on the table for a resolution. Probably wide of the mark. Hope to be back into fxpo soon.

BB

[bozzy_s] 13/4/2021 22:16

Thanks for everyone's links and comments above. Personally I'm not overly worried about FXPO being affected by the Russia / Ukraine situation.

I expect Putin's just flexing his muscles, in the way dictators need to from time to time. I don't think he's stupid enough to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine. More likely that Russia will try to infiltrate and influence by more subtle means. I hope that's the case anyway.

Obviously the FXPO share price would be affected by an escalation in fighting. Operations probably would be affected to some degree. But I don't think it'd be the end of the company.

At today's share price, I expect anyone buying would get their money back via dividends within ~6 years.

BB take a look at AAZ - it's my other shareholding. A gold / copper miner yielding about 5% at the current share price. I think there's some short term pain to come - this year's production could be down. But they've recently regained access to huge gold deposits, after the Azerbaijan / Armenia war (ironically Russia saved the day and deployed peacekeepers).

[bellbottom] 13/4/2021 18:38

Hi r9505571,

I'm still a big fan of fxpo and still believe they will keep climbing, assuming there is no invasion or escalation in hostilities. I shall hold cash for a while with a view to jumping back in when tensions have lifted. Also, want to be back in after pelletizers have all been refurbished fully - maybe May/June? Just not sensible to take unnecessary risk with such a good wad of money until then.

I have been in and out of PANR for a few months and I may dip my toes back in. They could immediately double on good news. Also jumped out of NEX to buy more FXPO a couple of months back, so may jump back in there if they drop back to 300p anytime soon.

No rush.

BB

[r9505571] 13/4/2021 18:11

That's a tasty pension pot you have Bellbottom! How will you redeploy that cash?President Biden says that if Russia acts recklessly or aggressively there will be costs, there will be consequences. Two US Navy destroyers are due to arrive in the Black Sea this week in a show of support for Ukraine until May 4th

[mustau] 13/4/2021 16:11

After the debacle in Syria, I can’t see US and friends doing much besides sanctions.

Ukraine has seen over 17k deaths over the last five years, that was the weekly number killed in Iraq by US and friends.
Let’s not forget the total destruction caused and still ongoing. hope for the sake of the populas of Ukraine common sense prevails with Putin backing down and Biden goes fishing in Minnesota!

[bellbottom] 13/4/2021 16:04

Playing cautious as we are talking about my pension pot here. Sold two lots of 40,000 shares @ 268/269p.
Have a few more holding onto for the time being.

BB

[bellbottom] 13/4/2021 15:08

There is much rhetoric from Russia and wild claims in much of the media today.
I note that the head of the Kremlin funded RT and Sputnik news agencies has stated that he believes that Russia WILL invade Ukraine.

There are also separate claims that the UK/MI6 are working together with Ukraine to trigger a war. This all seems to point to Putin building up a folio of justifications for invasion - maybe a few truths mixed up with mostly fake news to make it all sound plausible.

Russia stating that they would wipe out Ukraine in two days sounds to me like they DON'T want to go to war and this is a strong threat from them for the west not to push it.

It all sounds very familiar. But recent history has shown that the west will back off and rely on sanctions should Russia invade.

We should remember that Ukraine has a special place in Russian hearts and was the biggest loss when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991. This is not lost on Putin who wants it back. Kiev, after all, is considered by most Russians as the birthplace of the nation of Russia. I imagine that this would be Putin's prime goal in securing his legacy - taking Ukraine back!

I admit to being spooked by the whole sorry mess and may sell up and come back after the whole thing has sorted itself out. I appreciate that the fxpo mines are 400km from the front line but that will make no difference to confidence if there is an invasion.

BB

[zho] 13/4/2021 14:01

Nato’s secretary general has called on Russia to halt its military buildup around Ukraine, describing it as “unjustified, unexplained and deeply concerning”.

[bellbottom] 12/4/2021 09:40

r9505571 - I wish I had the confidence you think I have!

I am trying to look long term at a time when they are producing 20 million tonnes. Inevitably there will be peaks and troughs before then and so many influences - I just hope none are too serious.

At the end of the day, it's a difficult decision with Russia/US/Ukraine stuff going on. It's a mad world!

BB

[r9505571] 12/4/2021 09:01

Wish I had your confidence Bellbottom!

[bellbottom] 12/4/2021 08:34

Put my money where my mouth is and topped up at 355.5.

BB