Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[arcadian] 02/4/2021 20:25

This might help

[bozzy_s] 02/4/2021 17:40

XAMF I use the CUsteel site which shows prices to China:



Look at Seaborne index 65% FE fines, and add the 65% FE pellets premium (click box on left side of page). As you see the price today is $196.50 per tonne of iron ore, plus $64.30 pellet premium - which is what FXPO sell.

Prices might be different to markets outside China. If anyone has a global price that'd be useful.

[r9505571] 02/4/2021 11:48

The Times reports that the drop in FXPO was due to China pledging to reduce its steel output

[r9505571] 02/4/2021 11:16

Dmitry Peskov, 'The Russian Federation moves troops within its own territory at its own discretion. This shouldn't concern anyone, as such actions do not endanger anyone.'

[bellbottom] 02/4/2021 09:15

Yes I generally agree with Bozzy.
Just remember we have pelletizer upgrades in 1st half of year which will affect production. But barring any actual Russian invasion this should carry on climbing.

[xamf] 02/4/2021 08:22

Thanks very much Bozzy for your appraisal. As you say the financial case here is far outweighs any negative factors. Reassuring too that they’re now in a net positive cash position.
If you’re right about your forward eps (and I’m sure you are) then the share price is incredibly undervalued. Hopefully we should see a good move on with the share price after 8th April.

Out of interest do you have a link to your source for pellet prices?

[bozzy_s] 02/4/2021 03:11

XMAF I think the low P/E (it's probably about 2 at today's record iron ore pellet price of $260.80) is due to a number of risks....

1) Russia v Ukraine conflict might be a risk to FXPO's operations. Would hope that the EU and/or UK and USA would respond to a Russian invasion. But there's surely a risk of invasion and no help from outside.

2) Operating in a historically corrupt country.

3) Founder, majority shareholder, and former CEO is in trouble with Ukrainian authorities. Lots of potential scandals in his past.

However I think the good outweighs the bad with FXPO. It's a very impressive company. Hugely profitable. Pays massive dividends. Listens to minority shareholders. Possibly one of the 'greenest' mining companies in the world - planning to build their own solar power plant, and already running autonomous trucks. Listed on the FTSE4Good index.

A year's worth of production at today's pellet price would mean annual revenue of $3.12bn vs $1.7bn for 2020. EPS of £1.20 - £2. Perhaps an annual dividend of 80p - 100p per share? Just need the pellet price to stay here!

[r9505571] 01/4/2021 21:33

All a bit unsettling but Looking forward to Q1 Production Results out on Thursday

[bellbottom] 01/4/2021 16:08

As to the problems of water shortage in Crimea. If you remember, around 80-85% of fresh water in the peninsula came via canal from the river Dneiper. This has been blocked by Ukraine since annexation and Russia has had to ship in water supplies.

The Russians are now planning a new fresh water pipeline from mainland Russia, fixed along the new Kerch Bridge structure. Despite what the Ukraine government might say to the contrary, Putin is there to stay!

It's no wonder that traditional investors stay away from fxpo and it has such a low pe ratio. All the more for us!!!

[bellbottom] 01/4/2021 15:59

Hi XAMF

Yes, I bought another few @ 356p.

[croasdalelfc] 01/4/2021 15:58

Maybe war drums and sabre rattling affects it

[xamf] 01/4/2021 15:40

Have been following this closely for the past week. Didn't think I'd be given this buying op. In at 355. Their balance sheet and recent growth are exceptional.
What I fail to understand is why they have traditionally had such a low pe?

[bellbottom] 01/4/2021 15:27

Taking a cynical viewpoint, I'd imagine that 'mad dog' Putin needs to try and shore up his fading popularity with the usual show of strength. It's worked in the past and will no doubt work again now. With the west also 'distracted' by the China situation, maybe he feels bolder in making his moves and he's also testing out the new US president.

This has been a de facto war scenario since 2014 and no nearer being resolved. In fact it is more likely to be coming to a head given the dire situation in Crimea.

It's just a shame that these situations have an effect on the share price Maybe you're right Oxman. Another great topping up opportunity?

BB

[bozzy_s] 01/4/2021 13:56

^ Thanks for the info on self assessment. I'll give this a go in future.

Yes Sarah this is from my trading account with ii.

[sarahbudd] 01/4/2021 13:53

Yes that's the way I've been reclaiming through from my trading account. Reading articles it would appear reclaiming from SIPP is impossible, but an ISA possible but long winded

[thags] 01/4/2021 13:48

On self assessment its on the foreign shares section where you add on eaxh foreign holding and state how much wht paid. My HL account provides a year end certificate for this

[norman the doorman] 01/4/2021 13:27

Big build up of Russians on the border for ‘exercisesR17;.

[r9505571] 01/4/2021 13:27

Ukraine's smouldering seven-year war with Russian-backed separatists on its eastern border has flared up sharply in recent days, following the worst clashes in months.Four Ukrainian soldiers were killed - the largest daily death toll for government forces since the latest shaky ceasefire took effect last July - after an hours-long battle last Friday, north of the separatist stronghold city of Donetsk.Kyiv and Moscow accuse each other of triggering the escalation in the conflict, which has claimed about 14,000 lives since Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.The Kremlin accused Ukrainian forces of resuming the hostilities as a prelude to full-scale fighting, which eased in 2015 under a faltering peace agreement brokered by France and Germany in Minsk."We express concern over the growing tension and express concern that the Ukrainian side might resort to provocative actions that could lead to war. We really don't want to see that," Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian president Vladimir Putin, told reporters on Wednesday, according to Interfax.He added that Russia, which has denied any involvement in the conflict despite overwhelming evidence it controls the separatists, considered it a "civil war".Peskov said Putin stressed the "lack of an alternative" to the Minsk agreements during a phone call with France's president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday. Putin accused Ukraine of not fulfilling its obligations under the treaty and claimed it had "provoked" the recent flare-up, according to a Kremlin readout.The pact has come under pressure because of Russia's reluctance to acknowledge its role in the war and Ukraine's resistance to giving the two conflict regions autonomy in its constitution.The three leaders last met Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to discuss the agreements in Paris in 2019, but made little progress.Peskov said Putin, Macron and Merkel agreed that a new summit was "essential" but was only likely to take place after negotiations based on the Paris meeting resumed.The US has expressed concern over the recent flare-up. On Monday, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told Andriy Yermak, Zelensky's chief of staff, that the US had "unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity and Euro-Atlantic aspirations, in the face of continuing aggression".US European Command has raised its watch level to that of "potential imminent crisis", the highest level, according to the New York Times.The Pentagon said: "We are aware of the reports and are monitoring the situation. However, we will not speak to matters of intelligence but will provide an update when appropriate to do so. Regarding [watch] levels, we do not discuss details of intelligence for operations security reasons."Ruslan Khomchak speaking before parliamentRuslan Khomchak, head of Ukraine's armed forces, told parliament that Russia's behaviour was a 'threat to the military security of the state' © Hennadii Minchenko/Ukrinform/Barcroft Media/GettyKyiv and its western backers have accused Russia of orchestrating and fuelling what they have described as a proxy separatist war in Ukraine's Donbas region.In recent weeks, officials have also warned of military build-ups near the conflict zone and exercises in Crimea, which has been starved of water supplies since Ukraine turned off its access to canals following the annexation.Addressing Ukraine's parliament on Tuesday about the deaths of the soldiers, Ruslan Khomchak, commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces, said Russia's behaviour was "aggressive" and a "threat to the military security of the state"."Under the guise of control exercises?.?.?.?the Russian armed forces are gradually increasing troops near the state border of Ukraine in the north, east and south," Khomchak said.The US state department said it was aware of Ukrainian military reports concerning Russian troop movements on Ukraine's borders. "We are discussing our concerns about this increase in tensions in ceasefire violations and regional tensions with Nato allies."

[its the oxman] 01/4/2021 13:26

Added 351p , still think fall is overdone. But who knows.

[r9505571] 01/4/2021 13:21

Ukraine conflictTensions flare between Russia and UkraineDeaths of 4 Ukrainian soldiers in hours-long battle last week test fragile ceasefire

[sarahbudd] 01/4/2021 13:20

Is this for your trading account?Both Idealing (ISA) and AJ Bell (Sipp) will not help me at all.

[its the oxman] 01/4/2021 13:13

Iron ore holding up ok, seems an indiscriminate sell off today. Market seems to think everytime there is a bit of a tech growth resurgence it has to sell fxpo. Just provides a good buying opportunity ahead of next newsflow.

[mustau] 01/4/2021 12:05

Wtf - `have the `Russians invaded?

[ramellous] 01/4/2021 07:16

I noticed the 16% jump in Cleveland Cliffs share price yesterday in the US, an iron ore pellet supplier to theUS market. Maybe some crossover here today.

[croasdalelfc] 31/3/2021 23:35

They might not advise on net cash . If they do I would guess $125m plus