Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[r9505571] 14/5/2021 17:13

Simply Wall Street update yesterday...May 13Consensus EPS estimates increase to US$1.95The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has improved.2021 revenue forecast increased from US$1.99b to US$2.05b.EPS estimate increased from US$1.61 to US$1.95 per share.Net income forecast to grow 81% next year vs 72% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom.Consensus price target up from UK£3.55 to UK£3.73.Share price rose 7.0% to UK£5.01 over the past week.

[bellbottom] 14/5/2021 14:51

"de-oligarchization" - now there's a word I've never seen before.

Defined as:

"A process or act of democratization by removing oligarchs or lessening their political power."



BB

[zho] 14/5/2021 10:31

Accounts for 2011 show 585 million shares issued, compared to ADVFN's figure of 614 million now, so whatever the reason for the discrepancy between Stocko/LSE and ADVFN graphs I don't think it's the number of shares.

(page 92,

[parttime] 13/5/2021 23:12

Thags,

I assume you refer to the £5 share price back in 2011 as shown on the advfn long term chart? I can only think that there has been a listing of additional shares since then which advfn fails to account for in it's charting software. Both Stockopedia and the LSE long term charts show the price on that 2011 high at around £3.00

[thags] 13/5/2021 19:10

Iron ore cooled however fxpo hasn't exactly followed the price. Even at half today's price the company is well set for the future. What I can't understand is how the share price peaked at £5 with far less production, less quality product and huge debt and it's still below ath when the current situation is far more healthier

[stocksie10] 13/5/2021 18:45

currently using... hxxps://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/iron-ore-price to keep an eye on iron ore price which hasnt shown a drop all day, someone able to link a more accurate one?

[podgyted] 13/5/2021 18:34

Custeel: $251.1 from $267.1 - pellet premium $58.6 from $62.6.

[arja] 13/5/2021 15:12

iron ore price doing nothing but FXPO recovers further ! markets often fool us but bullish tone today helping I guess .

[arja] 13/5/2021 13:47

i think iron ore starts trading at 2pm and might well determine if FXPO recovery continues today

[arja] 13/5/2021 11:23

glad you found it sport as I know it is one metal which is sometimes not shown .

[djstevens8614] 13/5/2021 11:22

Ahh ok was only searching on Google. It'll be on my Spreadex app, thanks.

[arja] 13/5/2021 11:19

djsteven,
it is now 1206.7 bid and has fallen about 8% since Uk market cloaed on wednesday . I get the price on my IG platform . might be worth having a demo account with them as
you will see price there along with other commodities .

[r9505571] 13/5/2021 10:57

https://www.mining.com/china-is-overproducing-we-would-expect-to-see-some-slowing-down-in-h2-ferrexpo-ceo/

[djstevens8614] 13/5/2021 10:34

Where can you see iron ore price I'm struggling to find it?

And what is it today, how much did it drop?

[arja] 13/5/2021 10:10

turning up at last but might re-visit 471 again if iron ore price does not have a meaningful bounce .

[arja] 13/5/2021 09:46

never thought I would short a stock like this but too hard to resist today after huge fall in iron ore price ! wonder if iron ore will bounce later when market opens .

[bellbottom] 13/5/2021 09:15

Excellent article going into some detail about grades of iron ore pellets and the future of high grade 67% DR.



BB

[bellbottom] 13/5/2021 08:42

Thags, this is what Jim North said in the article regarding the 67% FE direct reduction (DR) pellets:

“Five or ten years from now, the largest proportion of our pellet profile will be in the DR market.”

What proportion that will be I haven't found any reference to. But if you look at their 65% pellets, in 2007 production was at around 40% and by 2020 it was nearer 98%.

BB

[zho] 13/5/2021 06:59

>>Perhaps to be an analyst you have to prove you are mathematically illiterate>>

Or innumerate ;-)

[bozzy_s] 13/5/2021 01:14

Podgyted 8709 I agree with you 100%.

It's impossible to forecast where iron ore is heading. And the wording "So bullish is....." while predicting a price collapse from $267 to $148 doesn't make sense.

I'm just enjoying the ride, knowing that FXPO is making an enormous amount of money, and that it'll make its way to us shareholders (and the Swiss treasury) through dividends.

[podgyted] 13/5/2021 00:38

Its this sort of analyst comment which drives me nuts - because it's impossible.

"So bullish is Raymond James analyst Brian MacArthur, that he has increased the brokerage’s 2021 calendar price for premium iron ore with an iron content of 65% and higher to $148 per tonne from $138 per tonne previously.

“Premium iron ore prices remain strong and averaged about $210 per tonne in April. In our view, the recent prices reflect ongoing strong demand supported by commitments to reduce emissions from steelmaking,” MacArthur said in a research note on May 7.

First-quarter production reported by major producers that were in-line or lower-than-expected highlight the supply challenges the industry is facing to meet demand. With a possible global economic recovery and a positive outlook for domestic growth in China, the near-term outlook for global steel production appears positive.

“While iron ore supply is expected to increase over the remainder of 2021, we believe that increase should be generally absorbed by the strong demand, and hence, we have increased our 2021 calendar Fe 65 price forecast,” MacArthur wrote."

But given the prices in the first 4 months of this year the price would have to fall to $100 for the rest of the year to meet their forecast - and that is not going to happen.

Perhaps to be an analyst you have to prove you are mathematically illiterate.

Or perhaps you just have to be frugal with the truth to aid the trading desk.

BWDIK

[thags] 12/5/2021 19:25

Thanks BB
Roughly what timescale are we looking at for DR pellets to be 100% of what fxpo produce. Does this usually take a few years to implement or is it a quicker process than that.

[bellbottom] 12/5/2021 18:53

Hi Thags,

Yes, I reference Custeel too. Jim North comments on China situation. Ferrexpo in a good position with increase in 67% FE pellets.



Hopefully shortfall inn China will be offset by increase in sales to pre-pandemic levels in Europe.

67% DR pellets could see Ferrexpo open up a market in North America as well as expanding their client base in the Middle East where 2019 figures show they only sold 5% to customers there.

Worth looking again at their December 2020 presentation.



BB