Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Ferrexpo Plc LSE:FXPO London Ordinary Share GB00B1XH2C03 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  4.80 1.15% 421.40 1,390,358 16:35:28
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
421.40 422.00 423.00 401.80 412.40
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Metals 1,243.65 547.00 79.07 5.4 2,587
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:42:33 O 11 420.36 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
30/5/202109:53Ferrexpo 2021 onwards. Big dividends but 35% Swiss Witholding Tax.26
31/8/201708:20Ferrexpo thread with charts765
21/9/201511:22BUY AND HOLD in Ferrexpo (FXPO) 2

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Ferrexpo Daily Update: Ferrexpo Plc is listed in the Industrial Metals sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FXPO. The last closing price for Ferrexpo was 416.60p.
Ferrexpo Plc has a 4 week average price of 401.80p and a 12 week average price of 351p.
The 1 year high share price is 506p while the 1 year low share price is currently 163.70p.
There are currently 613,967,956 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,240,378 shares. The market capitalisation of Ferrexpo Plc is £2,587,260,966.58.
1knocker: I see the case for a £12 valuation, but do not think we shall see an share price anything like that.This is Ukrainian, and there is that major shareholder, who is persona non grata with the govt .... I think that sometime before the year end we shall get another sub 400, perhaps substantially sub 400 entry point. I can't provide a mathematical reason for that, it is just the nature of the beast. FXPO is now my second largest holding, and all paid for by trading in and out and dividends. Ad ideal stock if you are disciplined and patient. Given the risks, I like to see the profit paid out in dividends rather than reinvested in the business or accumulated. Rather than buy more at these prices, I have been accumulating Diversified Gas (the former DGOC). It too pays a stinking and rising dividend, and seems to me to be inexpensive. I think of it as FXPO without the Swiss withholding tax! With markets so high, and propped up by crazy amounts of QE, the income element of my portfolio (of which FXPO, Diversified Gas, and a chunk of BAT are the cornerstone)is very reassuring. I prefer to be hosed with money than to have paper profits which only become certain when I sell.
bozzy_s: Pellet price down to $286.80, from the recent spike of $325.70. Hopefully it'll settle soon. Currently at around the same price as 3-4 weeks ago. If it does stabilize around $250 - $280 I'd expect the FXPO share price to resume its upwards path - I think the shares are already pricing in a significant fall in the iron ore price.
bozzy_s: Interesting links above. Thanks everyone for sharing them. I haven't seen Simply Wall Street before. On their front page for FXPO they have a 'snowflake analysis' which grades the company on it's health, dividend, value, past and future. FXPO seems to be top-notch for health and past. Scores very highly for dividend, highly for value, and very poorly for future. The site's as useless as the brokers covering FXPO. 50 years of JORC'd reserves not enough? Https:// As for 2021 forecasts, here's where I'm at currently: YTD average 65% pellet price is now $254.45. So the average is still going up nicely while the price is $300. Production is currently 0.9m tonnes / month, rising to 1.05-1.1m from ~July. So H1 revenue will be higher than $254.45 * 5.4 million = $1.374bn. For H2 let's assume the iron ore price returns to earth, 25% down on today's price, at $225. And the pelletiser upgrades are completed on time. H2 revenue = $225 * 6.3m = $1.417bn. For a very conservative 2021 total of $2.792bn. Simply Wall Street has revenue of $2.05bn. Let's see who's closer next March ;)
bellbottom: Hey Bozzy, Yup, I made the mistake of selling 80,000 shares @ 368p on the threat of Russian invasion, expecting a drop in share price and being able to get back in lower. I did make a reasonable six figure profit but you still kick yourself when you get it wrong, with the Russians pulling back and the price of ore continuing in its ascendency along with the share price doing the same. I now hold 90,000 shares which I hope to hold for longer term. I just need my wild card holdings to come good - pigs might fly! Approaching pensionable age one is supposed to de-risk. But where's the fun in that!? BB
bozzy_s: Wowsers. Through the $300 a tonne level. Cost of production $41.50 per tonne. 12m tonnes production this year and 13m tonnes next year. $3.44bn profit before tax, interest, depreciation, overheads next year at those prices. DJStevens welcome to this bulletin board. It's one of the more civilized ones on ADVFN! I spent hundreds and hundreds of hours finding the right shares to invest in. FXPO is an undervalued gem. The share price has had a good run, but it hasn't actually kept up with FXPO's profitability. The shares are ridiculously cheap on all metrics. P/E ratio (around 2 at today's pellet price). Dividend yield (surely we're not far away from £1 a year). When the residual debt is paid off I'd expect further dividend raises, and the possibility of FXPO buying back shares in the market. There are of course risks with any investment. I'd recommend reading bellbottom's posts on this forum. My summary of positives and negatives would be: Positive Ultra low P/E ratio 4-6 dividend payments per year, increasing in value (2020-21 tax year 3.3c, 3.3c, 6.6c, 6.6c, 6.6c, 13.2c) (2021-22 so far 39.6c, 13.2c) Net cash position recently achieved Ridiculous profit margin and cash flow 50+ years of JORC'd mine reserves Company engages with shareholders and has dealt with governance issues Premium listing on LSE since 2007 FTSE4Good listing since 2017 (The FTSE4Good Index measures the performance of companies demonstrating strong Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) practices) Pioneering environmentally-focused company using autonomous haul trucks, and building a solar power plant on site Potentially at beginning of a commodity super-cycle where prices will stay high, or go higher Negative Swiss witholding tax 35% is taken off dividends 50.3% shareholder, former CEO, wanted by Ukraine authorities for alleged dodgy business dealings Related party transactions and some dodgy dealings with a charity and football club in Ukraine (immaterial amounts of money compared with FXPO's cashflow) Fair value somewhere between £10 and £15 per share? If this potential commodity super-cycle happens, the sky's the limit. £40 a share anyone? !!!!! Would be about 20x 2022 earnings ;)
bozzy_s: Thanks for everyone's links and comments above. Personally I'm not overly worried about FXPO being affected by the Russia / Ukraine situation. I expect Putin's just flexing his muscles, in the way dictators need to from time to time. I don't think he's stupid enough to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine. More likely that Russia will try to infiltrate and influence by more subtle means. I hope that's the case anyway. Obviously the FXPO share price would be affected by an escalation in fighting. Operations probably would be affected to some degree. But I don't think it'd be the end of the company. At today's share price, I expect anyone buying would get their money back via dividends within ~6 years. BB take a look at AAZ - it's my other shareholding. A gold / copper miner yielding about 5% at the current share price. I think there's some short term pain to come - this year's production could be down. But they've recently regained access to huge gold deposits, after the Azerbaijan / Armenia war (ironically Russia saved the day and deployed peacekeepers).
bozzy_s: Quick stress test calcs if iron ore and pellet premium drop by 50% (from $260 to $130 per tonne): FXPO's cash costs from FY 2020 accounts was $41.50 per tonne. Therefore annual production of 12 million pellets, sold at half today's price, should make FXPO approx $88.50 per tonne = $1.06 billion gross profit. Deduct admin costs, depreciation etc for net profit. While I'm sure the share price would fall if pellet prices halved, FXPO should still be making decent money. Relieved there was no escalation over the weekend by Russia. I did take a peek at how far from the front line FXPO's mines are. Looks to be around 100 miles at nearest point.
bozzy_s: A new thread to discuss Swiss registered, Ukraine based, UK listed, iron ore pellet company Ferrexpo. The 3rd largest exporter of iron ore pellets in the world. LSE main market premium listing. A member of FTSE 250 and FTSE4Good indexes. In time I hope to make this thread a treasure trove of information for us retail investors. Hopefully the excellent contributors to the obsolete thread will come here to share their research and knowledge. Swiss Withholding Tax on dividends Having announced a special dividend of 39.6 US cents, FXPO is now the highest yielding company in the FTSE 350. Most likely it's the highest yielding company, on an ongoing basis, in all of the AIM and FTSE markets. This has brought the deduction of 35% Swiss Withholding Tax to the front of our minds. Here are some potential solutions: 1) From user Tygarreg. Sell before ex-div date. Buy back afterwards. Sell shares just before ex-dividend date and buy back on or soon after ex-dividend date. In theory the share price should fall by the dividend amount. If shares are re-purchased within 30 days, then Capital Gains Tax (CGT) calculations will be based on the repurchase price rather than the original price. For example: You have 10,000 FXPO shares, bought at an average 150p each (well done!) FXPO announces a dividend of 39.6c per share (approx 28.6p), for shareholders on the register at 4.30pm on 26th March. This means the ex-div date is 25th March (FYI ex-div date is always a Thursday for London companies) You sell 10,000 shares at 400p on 22nd March. You don't buy back before 25th March, so you're not eligible for the dividend. You buy back on 26th March for 371.4p. The share price has dropped by exactly the dividend amount (!) You now have 10,770 FXPO shares and zero cash from dividends As you've bought back within 30 days, your CGT liability is small. The 10,000 shares you sold are deemed to have cost 371.4p, rather than the original 150p. If you bought back after more than 30 days, then the cost would've been 150p, and you'd have a large CGT liability Let's see what would happen if you held for the dividend, and re-invested it in FXPO shares... You'd receive 10,000 x 28.6p x 65% = £1859. The Swiss tax authorities keep £1001 You buy £1859 worth of FXPO shares at 371.4p. Exactly 500 shares. So you end up holding 10,500 shares, compared with 10,770 This assumes all things being equal; the share price dropping by exactly the dividend amount on ex-dividend day, and the share price not changing before example 2 receives their dividend on 15th April. 2) Reclaim 4/7ths of the Swiss Withholding Tax from Swiss tax office For UK residents. This is from FXPO's dividend letter dated July 2019. “The current double tax treaty between the United Kingdom and Switzerland may entitle you to a certain reclaim of Swiss Withholding Tax on the dividend. Qualifying UK resident shareholders will be able to claim back 4/7ths of the 35 per cent Swiss Withholding Tax” “Three copies of Swiss tax Form 86, duly completed and signed, must be sent to the to the tax office in the United Kingdom to whom your income tax return is made (or to the tax office for the district in which you reside, if you have not made such a return). The tax office has to certify the forms and the claimant shall subsequently send the first two copies of the claim to the Federal Tax Administration of Switzerland, Eigerstrasse 65, CH 3003 Berne, Switzerland, no later than 31 December of the third year following the calendar year in which the dividend became due. Rights to repayment arising in one calendar year must be claimed in a single claim. The relevant Form 86 can be found or ordered on the homepage of the Swiss Federal Tax Administration Https:// “The claim must be accompanied by evidence of deduction of Swiss Withholding Tax. In general, a certificate of deduction, signed bank voucher or credit slip will satisfy this requirement. A dividend voucher will be provided at the time of payment. However, the Swiss administration reserves the right to request further evidence and information. Dividend statements issued by financial institutions outside of Switzerland must be accompanied by an additional Tax Voucher for a valid claim of refund of Swiss Withholding Tax. The Tax Voucher has to be provided by the financial institution.” Regarding the above I contacted my broker ii, and they will forward the Swiss tax vouchers to me: “Unfortunately, as we are execution only, we are unable to offer tax advice so cannot confirm what the process would be however, I do know that for Swiss withholding reclaims we can provide a Swiss tax voucher with which to help with your claim. If you let us know which dividends you are attempting to reclaim the tax on we will send you the relevant tax vouchers.” 3) Reclaim 4/7ths of the Swiss Withholding Tax on Self Assessment Tax Return It has been mentioned on the old thread that you can reclaim the withholding tax on your Self Assessment tax return. Can someone advise the relevant section to complete? I can see on the first Income page 'Foreign dividends (up to £300)' and 'Tax taken off foreign dividends'. But that's only for up to £300. And in the one year I included this (2018-19, foreign dividend £34, tax taken off foreign dividend £18) I wasn't given any credit in my tax calculation. Anyone going through the 4/7ths reclaim process, please keep us all updated. Has anyone been able to open the form 86 .qdf file from the Swiss tax website?
kenmitch: bellbottom. You’re right in that the FXPO share price went it’s own way when Zhegavo negatives hit the price, and as any share does when there’s good or bad news specific to that share. But more recently FXPO has moved in line with the sector. FXPO is one of my favourite shares. Had a great run with it a few years ago from 60p to 300p and then bought back in the market crash last year all no with Evraz and both have had a great run with huge dividends on top. High chance their results will be good and perhaps even stunning. Not long to wait.
kenmitch: Dividends and special dividends are far better than buybacks even with that Swiss tax. With dividends we actually get the money and with buybacks we get nothing. OK the share price might rise with buybacks but that’s usually when most of the others in that sector are also going up. More often than not the share price falls, especially so when Companies buyback when markets and share prices are high like they are now. If Companies must buyback they should do so when the share price is bombed out. Those of us who bought FXPO when the share was a crazy £1 or so are getting fantastic dividends and special dividends. No way are buybacks better. Just ask Whitbread investors as I’ve posted before. They spent the entire £2 billion or so proceeds from their sale of Costa to Coca Cola on buybacks. Guess what happened soon after? The share price HALVED! Share buybacks sound good in theory but they are usually a waste of money.
Ferrexpo share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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