Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Ferrexpo Plc LSE:FXPO London Ordinary Share GB00B1XH2C03 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -22.00 -5.7% 364.20 2,687,292 16:35:15
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
362.40 363.20 390.60 356.80 390.60
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Metals 1,243.65 547.00 79.07 4.6 2,236
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:05:23 O 5,947 364.012 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
01/4/202113:56Ferrexpo 2021 onwards. Big dividends but 35% Swiss Witholding Tax.6
31/8/201708:20Ferrexpo thread with charts765
21/9/201511:22BUY AND HOLD in Ferrexpo (FXPO) 2

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Ferrexpo Daily Update: Ferrexpo Plc is listed in the Industrial Metals sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FXPO. The last closing price for Ferrexpo was 386.20p.
Ferrexpo Plc has a 4 week average price of 341p and a 12 week average price of 273.60p.
The 1 year high share price is 397.80p while the 1 year low share price is currently 125.50p.
There are currently 613,967,956 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 2,184,045 shares. The market capitalisation of Ferrexpo Plc is £2,236,071,295.75.
bozzy_s: Thanks XAMF. Credit to Denziiil for highlighting the cost per tonne of pellets, which I'd originally failed to account for. Thags that's the approx pre-tax profit for Q1. I'm not sure what the tax figure will be. Probably a higher percentage than 2020 (15% of operating profit), and 2019 (12.2%). It is pure guesswork, but let's say 20% tax. Hopefully a bit lower in reality. That would give a net profit, after tax, of $313m for Q1. EPS of 53c / 38p. The pellet price is currently $22 higher than Q1 average. It's exciting to predict Q2, and especially Q3 and Q4 results (when production will be increased to 13m tonnes/year)... Q2 same production as Q1 at average price of $262: Revenue $711,068,000. Pre-tax profit $425,787,000. Q3 at increased production of 3.25m tonnes @ $262: Revenue $851,500,000. Pre-tax profit $509,878,000. Q4 same as Q3: Revenue $851,500,000. Pre-tax profit $509,878,000. That would give annual results of: Revenue $3,067,531,000 Operating Profit (pre tax) $1,836,837,563 Profit after tax @ say 20% $1,469,470,050 EPS (pre tax) $3.12 / £2.26 EPS (after tax) $2.50 / £1.81 Annual earnings of £1.81 per share, after tax, if nothing changes from here. I'll be reinvesting my dividend on 15th April :) It feels the market has priced in about a 75% fall in iron ore prices for FXPO !!! I feel it's very very wrong. Valuing FXPO on a P/E of 2 at current prices, and possibly a P/E of 1.5 for next year, is nuts. Best value share in London. That's before taking into account a 15% and fast-rising dividend. Might be paying dividends of £1 per share in a couple of years.
bozzy_s: Quick stress test calcs if iron ore and pellet premium drop by 50% (from $260 to $130 per tonne): FXPO's cash costs from FY 2020 accounts was $41.50 per tonne. Therefore annual production of 12 million pellets, sold at half today's price, should make FXPO approx $88.50 per tonne = $1.06 billion gross profit. Deduct admin costs, depreciation etc for net profit. While I'm sure the share price would fall if pellet prices halved, FXPO should still be making decent money. Relieved there was no escalation over the weekend by Russia. I did take a peek at how far from the front line FXPO's mines are. Looks to be around 100 miles at nearest point.
kenmitch: Yes. And if you buy tomorrow. The share price will be marked down by the dividend amount first thing Thursday. Anyone buying on Thursday will not get the dividend. Anyone selling on Thursday and any time after that will get the dividend even though they've sold out. Also on Thursday, though the share will be marked down by the dividend amount, what happens during Thursday depends as usual on selling and buying. If there is a lot of buying on Trursday, or sector itself having a good day, the share will recover perhaps a lot of that ex dividend markdown. But if it’s a down day generally, and there’s a lot of selling, then the share will fall by more than the dividend deduction. For fans of FXPO that could provide another good buy or top up opportunity. btw...the falls today are sector wide and not specific to FXPO.
bozzy_s: A new thread to discuss Swiss registered, Ukraine based, UK listed, iron ore pellet company Ferrexpo. The 3rd largest exporter of iron ore pellets in the world. LSE main market premium listing. A member of FTSE 250 and FTSE4Good indexes. In time I hope to make this thread a treasure trove of information for us retail investors. Hopefully the excellent contributors to the obsolete thread will come here to share their research and knowledge. Swiss Withholding Tax on dividends Having announced a special dividend of 39.6 US cents, FXPO is now the highest yielding company in the FTSE 350. Most likely it's the highest yielding company, on an ongoing basis, in all of the AIM and FTSE markets. This has brought the deduction of 35% Swiss Withholding Tax to the front of our minds. Here are some potential solutions: 1) From user Tygarreg. Sell before ex-div date. Buy back afterwards. Sell shares just before ex-dividend date and buy back on or soon after ex-dividend date. In theory the share price should fall by the dividend amount. If shares are re-purchased within 30 days, then Capital Gains Tax (CGT) calculations will be based on the repurchase price rather than the original price. For example: You have 10,000 FXPO shares, bought at an average 150p each (well done!) FXPO announces a dividend of 39.6c per share (approx 28.6p), for shareholders on the register at 4.30pm on 26th March. This means the ex-div date is 25th March (FYI ex-div date is always a Thursday for London companies) You sell 10,000 shares at 400p on 22nd March. You don't buy back before 25th March, so you're not eligible for the dividend. You buy back on 26th March for 371.4p. The share price has dropped by exactly the dividend amount (!) You now have 10,770 FXPO shares and zero cash from dividends As you've bought back within 30 days, your CGT liability is small. The 10,000 shares you sold are deemed to have cost 371.4p, rather than the original 150p. If you bought back after more than 30 days, then the cost would've been 150p, and you'd have a large CGT liability Let's see what would happen if you held for the dividend, and re-invested it in FXPO shares... You'd receive 10,000 x 28.6p x 65% = £1859. The Swiss tax authorities keep £1001 You buy £1859 worth of FXPO shares at 371.4p. Exactly 500 shares. So you end up holding 10,500 shares, compared with 10,770 This assumes all things being equal; the share price dropping by exactly the dividend amount on ex-dividend day, and the share price not changing before example 2 receives their dividend on 15th April. 2) Reclaim 4/7ths of the Swiss Withholding Tax from Swiss tax office For UK residents. This is from FXPO's dividend letter dated July 2019. “The current double tax treaty between the United Kingdom and Switzerland may entitle you to a certain reclaim of Swiss Withholding Tax on the dividend. Qualifying UK resident shareholders will be able to claim back 4/7ths of the 35 per cent Swiss Withholding Tax” “Three copies of Swiss tax Form 86, duly completed and signed, must be sent to the to the tax office in the United Kingdom to whom your income tax return is made (or to the tax office for the district in which you reside, if you have not made such a return). The tax office has to certify the forms and the claimant shall subsequently send the first two copies of the claim to the Federal Tax Administration of Switzerland, Eigerstrasse 65, CH 3003 Berne, Switzerland, no later than 31 December of the third year following the calendar year in which the dividend became due. Rights to repayment arising in one calendar year must be claimed in a single claim. The relevant Form 86 can be found or ordered on the homepage of the Swiss Federal Tax Administration Https:// “The claim must be accompanied by evidence of deduction of Swiss Withholding Tax. In general, a certificate of deduction, signed bank voucher or credit slip will satisfy this requirement. A dividend voucher will be provided at the time of payment. However, the Swiss administration reserves the right to request further evidence and information. Dividend statements issued by financial institutions outside of Switzerland must be accompanied by an additional Tax Voucher for a valid claim of refund of Swiss Withholding Tax. The Tax Voucher has to be provided by the financial institution.” Regarding the above I contacted my broker ii, and they will forward the Swiss tax vouchers to me: “Unfortunately, as we are execution only, we are unable to offer tax advice so cannot confirm what the process would be however, I do know that for Swiss withholding reclaims we can provide a Swiss tax voucher with which to help with your claim. If you let us know which dividends you are attempting to reclaim the tax on we will send you the relevant tax vouchers.” 3) Reclaim 4/7ths of the Swiss Withholding Tax on Self Assessment Tax Return It has been mentioned on the old thread that you can reclaim the withholding tax on your Self Assessment tax return. Can someone advise the relevant section to complete? I can see on the first Income page 'Foreign dividends (up to £300)' and 'Tax taken off foreign dividends'. But that's only for up to £300. And in the one year I included this (2018-19, foreign dividend £34, tax taken off foreign dividend £18) I wasn't given any credit in my tax calculation. Anyone going through the 4/7ths reclaim process, please keep us all updated. Has anyone been able to open the form 86 .qdf file from the Swiss tax website?
kenmitch: bellbottom. You’re right in that the FXPO share price went it’s own way when Zhegavo negatives hit the price, and as any share does when there’s good or bad news specific to that share. But more recently FXPO has moved in line with the sector. FXPO is one of my favourite shares. Had a great run with it a few years ago from 60p to 300p and then bought back in the market crash last year all no with Evraz and both have had a great run with huge dividends on top. High chance their results will be good and perhaps even stunning. Not long to wait.
bozzy_s: That's February done, with an even higher average pellet price than January. For 65% pellets... Jan average = $237.30 Feb average = $238.56 YTD average = $237.90 Current price $249.00 is 6.6% higher than 31st Jan. FXPO's shares gained 18.8% in the month. Expecting more of the same. If these pellet prices hold for the year FXPO will have EPS well above £1, perhaps pushing towards £2. So the share price ought to smash through £5 at some point.
kenmitch: Dividends and special dividends are far better than buybacks even with that Swiss tax. With dividends we actually get the money and with buybacks we get nothing. OK the share price might rise with buybacks but that’s usually when most of the others in that sector are also going up. More often than not the share price falls, especially so when Companies buyback when markets and share prices are high like they are now. If Companies must buyback they should do so when the share price is bombed out. Those of us who bought FXPO when the share was a crazy £1 or so are getting fantastic dividends and special dividends. No way are buybacks better. Just ask Whitbread investors as I’ve posted before. They spent the entire £2 billion or so proceeds from their sale of Costa to Coca Cola on buybacks. Guess what happened soon after? The share price HALVED! Share buybacks sound good in theory but they are usually a waste of money.
bozzy_s: Yep. The share price slide seems to have finished. Hopefully we'll consolidate around the £3 mark before the next step up. When it becomes clear that EPS for 2021 will be anywhere from 90 to 290 pence we should see a re-rating. Edit. January average price for 65% FE pellets was $237.30 (using daily prices from and dividing by 31) Average price to date in 2021 is $236.49 (31 days in Jan, 4 in Feb) Couple of 2021 earnings calcs based on $236.49 average selling price, 12 million tonnes produced. 1) My method. Using average profit margin over previous 5 years Revenue $2,837,880,000 Operating profit (35.52% is the 5-yr average) $1,008,014,976 EPS (588,624,142 shares) $1.71 / £1.25 2) Denziiil1's method. Using FXPO's C1 costs from 2020 @ $40.90 Revenue $2,837,880,000 Operating profit $2,347,080,000 EPS $3.99 / £2.92 I personally prefer Denziiil1's method! Imagine if that comes off. Imagine if the 65% FE price reaches Morgan Stanley's bull-case scenario of $215 (plus pellet premium ~$50). The share price would be trading on a current P/E of under 1. What have I missed? I would appreciate any attempts to refine the calcs above. Just realized I've stated EPS pre-tax. Obviously there would be loads of tax payable on those earnings.
bozzy_s: Couldn't find a source for the Credit Suisse upgrade. But no reason to disbelieve. All the other brokers are many months behind, with target prices in the 100s and low 200s! Even JP Morgan, sister company of the ones predicting booming Iron Ore prices today, have an old target of 250p for FXPO. I'd take broker forecasts and price targets with a barrel load of salt. Even if they were all 100% honest and straight, they're rubbish. Meanwhile a full month of 2021 has passed with a very, very high selling price for FXPO's products. If the 65% pellet price goes up, stays flat, or drops by 20 or 30 percent, FXPO will make a mockery of broker forecasts.
bozzy_s: I expect some action when remaining debt is repaid. While buybacks are usually a negative - it says the company has no other ideas how to invest their cash - they sometimes help the share price. Combined with an increased dividend we ought to see a complete re-rating of FXPO shares. Fair value would be multiples of today's price - if iron ore remains in demand for the foreseeable. FXPO have several decades of JORC'd reserves to mine. They're priced as if they'll disappear in 3-4 years. Oh, ex-div date was 100%, without any doubt, last Thursday !!!! (Record date is normally day after ex-div. And ex-div is always on a Thursday for plcs in London)
Ferrexpo share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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