Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[mustau] 09/4/2021 19:14

Ukraine rules out offensive against Russia-backed separatists.

[plasybryn] 09/4/2021 18:06

Thanks buzzy_s. Just posted it.

[bozzy_s] 09/4/2021 15:21

Hi Plasybryn, yes feel free to copy and paste. Don't worry about crediting or anything. Please let us know if someone comes up with better numbers on LSE.

[its the oxman] 09/4/2021 15:17

Believe so but headlines are headlines and people react sometimes. Human nature or just silly selling or a risk based top slice.

[jon4567] 09/4/2021 15:10

Please excuse my ignorance, but are the Ferrexpo mines not located near Kremenchuk in Central Ukraine? That's over 400km away from the fighting in Donetsk

[its the oxman] 09/4/2021 14:28

Everytime this happens it's a great opportunity to add, just got to be clever or lucky enough to catch the turn.

[xamf] 09/4/2021 13:36

Just seen this on the BBC news site.

Ukraine conflict: Moscow could 'defend' Russia-backed rebels

[plasybryn] 09/4/2021 05:51

Thanks for the work done here. Makes ac very persuasive investment case. If you don't use the LSE site are you ok with me posting it there, obviously credited to you?

[bozzy_s] 09/4/2021 00:28

Thanks XAMF. Credit to Denziiil for highlighting the cost per tonne of pellets, which I'd originally failed to account for.

Thags that's the approx pre-tax profit for Q1. I'm not sure what the tax figure will be. Probably a higher percentage than 2020 (15% of operating profit), and 2019 (12.2%).

It is pure guesswork, but let's say 20% tax. Hopefully a bit lower in reality.

That would give a net profit, after tax, of $313m for Q1. EPS of 53c / 38p.

The pellet price is currently $22 higher than Q1 average.

It's exciting to predict Q2, and especially Q3 and Q4 results (when production will be increased to 13m tonnes/year)...

Q2 same production as Q1 at average price of $262:

Revenue $711,068,000. Pre-tax profit $425,787,000.

Q3 at increased production of 3.25m tonnes @ $262:

Revenue $851,500,000. Pre-tax profit $509,878,000.

Q4 same as Q3:

Revenue $851,500,000. Pre-tax profit $509,878,000.


That would give annual results of:

Revenue $3,067,531,000

Operating Profit (pre tax) $1,836,837,563

Profit after tax @ say 20% $1,469,470,050

EPS (pre tax) $3.12 / £2.26

EPS (after tax) $2.50 / £1.81


Annual earnings of £1.81 per share, after tax, if nothing changes from here. I'll be reinvesting my dividend on 15th April :)

It feels the market has priced in about a 75% fall in iron ore prices for FXPO !!! I feel it's very very wrong. Valuing FXPO on a P/E of 2 at current prices, and possibly a P/E of 1.5 for next year, is nuts. Best value share in London. That's before taking into account a 15% and fast-rising dividend. Might be paying dividends of £1 per share in a couple of years.

[thags] 08/4/2021 22:26

Bozzy that calc you've done, what's the net profit roughly for the year or is that net

[xamf] 08/4/2021 22:17

That would be an incredible EPS figure particularly in light of reduced production. Thanks for your invaluable posts Bozzy.

[bozzy_s] 08/4/2021 13:24

No nasty surprises in the update.

Q1 results approx:

Revenue $653,463,000 ($240.78 x 2714k tonnes)

Operating profit (based on 2020's FY accounts profit margin 59.88%) $391,293,000

EPS (pre-tax) 66c / 48p


Very impressive for 3 months of slightly reduced production.

Probably looking at pre-tax EPS of £2 for the year if pellet prices stay strong.

[its the oxman] 08/4/2021 08:16

Positive update, all as expected and on track to see a production rate increase. Next update re next div payment should be more insightful.

[pastybap] 08/4/2021 08:00

Production drop had already been flagged in FY results "The Group expects to deliver a further increase in production from the level seen in 2020. Pellet production is likely to be higher in the second half of 2021 as pelletiser upgrade work is planned for the first half of the year, which will deliver approximately 0.5-1.0 million tonnes per annum of additional full year pelletiser capacity in the second half of 2021. "

[r9505571] 08/4/2021 07:14

Total iron ore pellet production of 2.7 million tonnes ("Mt"), representing a year on year result in line with pellet production in 1Q 2020, and 12% below 4Q 2020, reflecting ongoing pelletiser upgrade work.

[bozzy_s] 07/4/2021 16:38

Yep Scandinavia seems to be the happiest place to live. Sweden is very cheap - my old postie retired there about 10 years ago. Got a 4 bed detached house beside a lake for around £25,000. That's right up north. It's more expensive in cities and the south.

Don't want to be off topic too much. Brilliant performance by FXPO today. With the dividend we're at over £4 a share.

Edit... today's pellet price just posted; another multi-year high. $202 + $64.30 pellet premium for 65% iron ore..

[norman the doorman] 07/4/2021 16:28

no way you can be happy when its dark 6 months of the year surely.

[arcadian] 07/4/2021 13:54

Trading update tomorrow. Let`s hope it`s licensed.

[bozzy_s] 07/4/2021 13:35

Quick comment on New Zealand. Lefrene on the AAZ thread (39706) wrote about their family's experience of being raided by police for not having a dog licence, 3 months after correctly registering the death of their dog:

"I have a daughter in NZ on the South Island, she has been there about 15 years now and is an NZ citizen, I have visited several times for up to three months at a time. NZ is not the place it's cracked up to be, rife with nepotism. Land is very tightly held within the long established farming families, those farming families also tend to hold much of the better commercial property too. Housing can be expensive, which is mad in such a thinly populated country.

Policing can be heavy handed, officials seem to have right of entry without warrants. Some dog wardens barged into my daughters house uttering threats about no dog license. The dog had been put down three months earlier, and the death registered by the vet. But there was no preamble with letters or phone call enquiring why there was no license, just three 'heavies' barging straight into the house at 8am! I could go on, NZ while it has certain charms, isn't the place it appears to be from afar"