| Date | Subject |
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23/9/2020
18:01 | lodgeview: I'll receive £1400 from dividend on Friday so looking forward to that. I hope the share price recovers from the drop due to the divi so it is covered. I hold 30,000 equivalent shares and there is no Swiss withholding tax to bother about for me!
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18/9/2020
19:16 | bellbottom: Some substantial late buys bodes well for an early climb in share price on Monday morning. Will there be any news to back up the large buys and the Friday increase in sp? We'll see.
BB
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23/8/2020
11:12 | bellbottom: Lodgeview.
Hopefully absolutely nothing. It's purely background stuff that could have an impact on sentiment, on perception of security of investment. I'd rather be aware of possibilities than be caught off guard by a sudden event that I wasn't prepared for.
Even though Ferrexpo is London listed company, we mustn't forget that the mines are all in Poltava region of Ukraine and the majority owner is under investigation for embezzlement. This makes it a more risky investment and this is reflected in the lowly share price to value ratio.
Personally I am hopeful that Mr.Zhevago will come to some 'arrangement' with Zelenksy's government and be brought in from the cold. That would leave the Russian aspect as the other area of concern. After all, they annexed Crimea in 2014, and continue to support and back rebels in the Donbas region of Ukraine.
Given Putin'e reign is to continue until 2036, then we can safely assume that he has further plans for de-stabilising the region and expanding his new Soviet Empire. The continued situation in Belarus may also have an impact on Putin's plans.
But if we ignore all the above (not advisable) or assume that all outcomes will be positive, then it's only a matter of time to see this at £3 or even £4 a share as well as those healthy dividends.
Who knows. So much of it is out of our hands. I wish I was a chartist like Arja. Maybe that's the best strategy.
BB
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21/8/2020
20:51 | thags: Don't worry lodgeview. It still is very cheap. Name me any other companies with the same fundamentals for the share price. For now just enjoy the dividend and just wait for the shares to rise again, worst case is buy more if it drops. I don't see it falling to 100 again unless the price of iron ore collapses which is unlikely. We're all frustrated by the share price but I'm personally holding on in case I miss the pump when it comes
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21/8/2020
03:11 | bozzy_s: I've no problem with the occasional red day. If every company were valued 'fairly' there wouldn't be much money to be made by trading shares. No share trading = no liquidity = much wider buy/sell spread etc.
We know the reasons for FXPO being priced at about a 50-70% discount vs its peers. There is always a risk, whether negligible, slight or moderate, that shareholders make a loss of 100%.
On the other hand there's the reward of a huge annual dividend. And in recent months an increase in share price too. Plus the defensive qualities of a natural resources company, meaning it has been shielded from Covid-19 fallout.
While many companies have been hit financially and operationally by the virus, slashing and cancelling dividends everywhere, FXPO has had a strong year to date. The share price has risen from 159p to 192p, in addition to ~20p being paid in dividends (before Swiss Witholding Tax of course).
At that rate we need only wait a few years to recover our original investment in full.
And who knows, maybe with a bumper performance in H2 2020 that annual dividend might yet rise from 26.4c / 20p. And if that happened I expect the market would take notice and lift us above 250p.
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05/8/2020
10:47 | carer: This is a good company paying out steady dividends which will cover the share price paid now after a couple of years pay out. It is impressive even under cov-19 situation to keep maintaining the momentum of profits. Would not be surprised the share will go back to 300 p level. Very much under valued share because of It is based in Ukrain?
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11/1/2020
12:36 | kenmitch: Sorry Tygarreg, but you are wrong.
The share price does NOT always go down by the dividend amount on ex dividend day.
e.g the last Barratt dividend. It was big but the share price ended up that day significantly higher than that dividend. What’s more the very next day the share price went up another 11.5%/ 65p!
More often than not a share price does go down on ex dividend day, and quite often by even more than that dividend. But there are many examples where the share goes down less than the dividend, and there are plenty of examples where the share recovers the whole dividend loss on ex dividend day, and very often within a few days.
You are looking at theory. I always prefer to look at what actually happens.
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09/1/2020
18:39 | kenmitch: Tygarreg re your post 6824.
That’s nonsense about the share would be higher without the dividend. We can’t know what the share price would be.
e.g if big investors holding for income decided to sell if FXPO cancelled the dividend.
Also dividends can and often do provide added support to the share price, as attractive dividend yield in an era of low interest rates can be seen as a big plus.
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20/11/2019
01:29 | bozzy_s: Good to see momentum carrying on. These look ridiculously cheap on all metrics.
On 2nd August FXPO announced interim results:
Revenue +28% at $787m
Pre-tax profit +77% at $317m
Post-tax profit +78% at $270m
Interim dividend +100% at $0.066
Net debt -24% at $282m
Net asset value +26% at $1,091m
Superb results. Absolutely brilliant numbers. An established company growing at that rate - outstanding. And the increase in NAV / reduction in debt was after paying divis of 13.2c in May.
The shares traded between 240p and 252p on 2nd August.
For mostly non-operational, non-financial reasons they then crashed to 120p on 31st October. And today at 142p they're almost as daftly priced.
Yes Q3 2019 production was significantly down v Q2 2019, and slightly down v Q3 2018. But the share price over-reaction was due to Zhevago being chased.
Thanks for the note re. Swiss Withholding Tax on dividends. Decided to do some research. Googled "reclaim swiss dividend withholding tax uk" and a Ferrexpo statement was in the top 3 results.
"Qualifying UK resident shareholders will be able to claim back 4/7ths of the 35 per cent Swiss Withholding Tax"
So I'll adjust dividend yield to take that 15% tax into account. And update for today's share price / exchange rate.
If H2 dividend is unchanged, total of 13.2c = 10.22p. Minus 15% = 8.68p = 6.12%
If H2 dividend is doubled, same as H1, 19.8c -----------"------------ = 9.17%
And trading on a 2018 P/E of 3.2. 2019 looks to have been more profitable, so today we're at less than 3 times 2019 earnings.
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13/11/2019
22:41 | bozzy_s: Looks even better value 24 hours later!
7.91% yield if FY divi unchanged
11.85% yield if FY divi is doubled, in line with interim divi
P/E ratio of 2.18 if H2 EPS is same as previous year
Re debt darius12, have a read through their FY 2018 results:
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/ferrexpo-FXPO/share-news/Ferrexpo-PLC-Full-Year-Results/79740123
And their 2019 H1 results:
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/ferrexpo-FXPO/share-news/Ferrexpo-PLC-2019-Half-Year-Results/80457824
Check out the latest balance sheet as of 30-6-19 in the H1 results. And it's worth taking a couple of hours to read all the commentary in both.
I'd say the biggest risk is jurisdiction. Operating solely in Ukraine while there are sweeping political changes - including FXPO's boss being chased by the new government.
It seems the company itself is an excellent money-making machine. By paying decent dividends it makes itself far more attractive to investors. And the high yield mitigates the jurisdiction risk somewhat.
And it appears they are trying to expand. Investing money to increase annual pellet production.
If that were to plateau in a few years - no new capital expenditure - just a cash cow. The company could in theory pay off its remaining debt, and pay out most of its annual earnings in dividends.
Imagine if they do increase output, earning 80p per share, and paying a divi of 50p.
Yes it's uber-positive, pie in the sky stuff. FXPO might be targeted and taken by the new government.
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PLUS1
