Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 26/5/2021 09:50

chart suggests a move to 400 level if iron ore price does not recover in next few days which it might ,

[bozzy_s] 25/5/2021 23:04

Iron Ore up $5.60 to $228.80 today. It'll be great if that's the end of the mini slump. I've got a 420 buy order for FXPO. I don't do charting / technical analysis, but it looks like that corresponds with the 50 day MA, per Thags above.

[djstevens8614] 25/5/2021 20:27

So far it looks identical to the retrace in February, getting to the point now though where it needs to level off or go the other way!

[thags] 25/5/2021 13:32

unfortunately the market is aligning the share price to the ore price rather than valuing the company for what it is, on that basis it wouldn't surprise me seeing this drop to 200p if ore was to drop to $100 however ridiculous that may sound. Just frustrating that china can manipulate the market enough to pay what it feels is correct to further it's own agenda rather than letting market forces decide. I predict the correction will be similar to what we saw in Feb where it traced all the way back to the 50MA roughly around 420 for no real reason. If it goes lower than that then it will be squeaky bum time for all us long term holders....

[yawn1971] 25/5/2021 13:11

Never thought I'd see it this low !

[bozzy_s] 25/5/2021 03:55

Pellet price down to $286.80, from the recent spike of $325.70. Hopefully it'll settle soon. Currently at around the same price as 3-4 weeks ago.

If it does stabilize around $250 - $280 I'd expect the FXPO share price to resume its upwards path - I think the shares are already pricing in a significant fall in the iron ore price.

[thags] 24/5/2021 15:50

Yeah some comfort from this recent slump in share price thanks to china's meddling

[thags] 24/5/2021 15:47

Yeah some comfort from this recent slump in share price thanks to china's meddling

[r9505571] 24/5/2021 15:03

AGM Thursday. Hopefully final dividend will be approved!

[bellbottom] 23/5/2021 09:52

Zelensky targets oligarchs, but no mention of FXPO ex CEO Zhevago in the BBC article.



BB

[bozzy_s] 20/5/2021 00:50

Pellet premium will be updated tomorrow (Thursday). I'd expect a slight drop, in line with lower iron ore prices.

Edit - pleased to be wrong. Pellet premium up $5 this week. Overall price still above $300 / tonne, well ahead of Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr prices.

[podgyted] 19/5/2021 17:44

Custeel shows a fall for the 19th - $249.7 from $258.7 Pellet premium the same.

[thags] 19/5/2021 13:08

Crypto tanking hard, stocks are generally weak, all going down together
Fxpo will survive, just another buying opportunity near the 20MA which is at 458p so could go a bit more

[bellbottom] 19/5/2021 12:53

Can't see anything to explain the drop today. Is it just the leaking sentiment from the Indian variant and its general impact on global economies? I suspect so.

Wish I had some spare cash to buy more under the circumstances.

BB

[podgyted] 18/5/2021 17:05

Custeel shows a rebound for the 18th - $258.7 from $247.8. Pellet premium the same.

[parttime] 17/5/2021 17:50

154,000 @ £4.86??

Someone seems confident... :)

[zho] 17/5/2021 17:31

Iron Ore Rebounds as China Mills Churn Out Steel at Record Pace

Iron ore futures climbed back above $200 a ton as soaring steel production in China showed there’s no sign of the industry cooling despite government attempts to rein in output from last year’s record of over 1 billion tons.

[yawn1971] 17/5/2021 14:16

Still buying the dips ?

[thags] 15/5/2021 21:33

China going all out on iron ore curbs

[bozzy_s] 15/5/2021 01:24

Interesting links above. Thanks everyone for sharing them.

I haven't seen Simply Wall Street before. On their front page for FXPO they have a 'snowflake analysis' which grades the company on it's health, dividend, value, past and future.

FXPO seems to be top-notch for health and past. Scores very highly for dividend, highly for value, and very poorly for future.

The site's as useless as the brokers covering FXPO. 50 years of JORC'd reserves not enough?




As for 2021 forecasts, here's where I'm at currently:

YTD average 65% pellet price is now $254.45. So the average is still going up nicely while the price is $300.

Production is currently 0.9m tonnes / month, rising to 1.05-1.1m from ~July.

So H1 revenue will be higher than $254.45 * 5.4 million = $1.374bn.

For H2 let's assume the iron ore price returns to earth, 25% down on today's price, at $225. And the pelletiser upgrades are completed on time. H2 revenue = $225 * 6.3m = $1.417bn.

For a very conservative 2021 total of $2.792bn.

Simply Wall Street has revenue of $2.05bn.

Let's see who's closer next March ;)

[parttime] 14/5/2021 21:34

Amazing, that's a pe of 2.5 for a premium product in a bullish market!!!

This has to be worth at least 5/6x putting us north of £7?


A bit of weekend reading, dated 12 April, can't vouch for the author but an interesting read. (Edit: Apologies if already posted)

hxxps://stockhead.com.au/resources/steel-producers-willing-to-pay-premium-prices-to-secure-higher-grade-iron-ore-report/

[thags] 14/5/2021 17:57

These price targets are ridiculous. I personally don't rate simply wall st or many analysts. 3.73 yeah right 🙄

[r9505571] 14/5/2021 17:13

Simply Wall Street update yesterday...May 13Consensus EPS estimates increase to US$1.95The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has improved.2021 revenue forecast increased from US$1.99b to US$2.05b.EPS estimate increased from US$1.61 to US$1.95 per share.Net income forecast to grow 81% next year vs 72% growth forecast for Metals and Mining industry in the United Kingdom.Consensus price target up from UK£3.55 to UK£3.73.Share price rose 7.0% to UK£5.01 over the past week.

[bellbottom] 14/5/2021 14:51

"de-oligarchization" - now there's a word I've never seen before.

Defined as:

"A process or act of democratization by removing oligarchs or lessening their political power."



BB

[zho] 14/5/2021 10:31

Accounts for 2011 show 585 million shares issued, compared to ADVFN's figure of 614 million now, so whatever the reason for the discrepancy between Stocko/LSE and ADVFN graphs I don't think it's the number of shares.

(page 92,