Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[sarahbudd] 01/4/2021 13:20

Is this for your trading account?Both Idealing (ISA) and AJ Bell (Sipp) will not help me at all.

[its the oxman] 01/4/2021 13:13

Iron ore holding up ok, seems an indiscriminate sell off today. Market seems to think everytime there is a bit of a tech growth resurgence it has to sell fxpo. Just provides a good buying opportunity ahead of next newsflow.

[mustau] 01/4/2021 12:05

Wtf - `have the `Russians invaded?

[ramellous] 01/4/2021 07:16

I noticed the 16% jump in Cleveland Cliffs share price yesterday in the US, an iron ore pellet supplier to theUS market. Maybe some crossover here today.

[croasdalelfc] 31/3/2021 23:35

They might not advise on net cash . If they do I would guess $125m plus

[blueclyde] 31/3/2021 19:27

Anyone want to have a bash at guessing what the net cash position will be when the update is released?

[bozzy_s] 31/3/2021 08:25

FXPO doesn't produce quarterly accounts, just the 6-month and full year accounts.

But they will give a production update (as noted by Norman the Doorman above it's scheduled for 8th April) which can be multiplied by the average pellet price, for a decent estimate of FXPO's profitability each quarter.

Edit - today's pellet price has been posted as $194.20 + $59.90 premium. That makes the average price for Q1 $240.78 per my spreadsheet.

We'll wait for the production update to confirm, but assuming 3 million pellets produced (not taking into account any higher-quality 67% pellets) that's $722m in sales vs $1700m for all of 2020. Very good :)

[norman the doorman] 30/3/2021 19:13

8th April on the website

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 30/3/2021 17:24

Bossy.

Are we expecting Q1 results tomorrow?

Thanks in advance.

[bozzy_s] 30/3/2021 16:24

Thanks for that info Croasdalefc. With the current pellet premium at ~$60 we're potentially looking at $12/t on top of already record prices.

I'm looking forward to crunching some numbers for Q1 tomorrow. Expecting to absolutely batter last year's (excellent) performance.

[croasdalelfc] 30/3/2021 13:37

I found old pricing which gave it a premium of 20% above the premium pellets . $4 on top of $20 premium - it's whether the extra premium is relative or absolute but my guess is $8/$10 a tonne

[thags] 30/3/2021 11:40

yeah new highs. we are making the price of ore pure profit whilst the premium covers the costs. Anyone know what the pricing difference is with 67% pellets which is what we are gearing towards

[croasdalelfc] 30/3/2021 09:25

Custeel pricing $196.5 /t plus $59.8 premium . That's a new high

[r9505571] 29/3/2021 14:21

Ever Given partially refloated!

[croasdalelfc] 29/3/2021 14:02

If they have produced 2.8Mt they reach H1 2020 revenue on April 19th. If they have produced 2.9MT it is April 15th. If it is 3.0MT it is April 12th ... all at $215/t average realised price for Q1 .... cash monster!!!!

[r9505571] 28/3/2021 15:01

This blockage has the potential to spike the iron ore price in the short term as vessels will have to take the longer route below Africa.

[1knocker] 28/3/2021 14:57

One further potential problem is that the ship may have been sitting on its prop and rudder. If there is damage to those, it could be a while before the cargo reaches its destination, even after the ship has been refloated and removed from the canal.

If people are surprised that the ship is so firmly embedded at the bow, and that the stern slewed round so as also to ground, just consider the force of several hundred thousand tons moving at even a couple of mph. The bow was always going to make a considerable impact on Egypt, and when the bow stopped the stern was almost bound to swing. If you doubt me, try putting a foot out to stop a 5 ton yacht heading for a quay at 1 mph (but try this only if you have no further use for that foot)!

It will be very interesting to learn how this grounding happened. I can't see that wind is likely to have been a critical factor, unless the ship was near stationary; I wonder if it had to slow down for something ahead, and lost steerage way?

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 28/3/2021 14:33

eggandbacon. lol
You win the weekly internet best comment comp with that one:)

[r9505571] 28/3/2021 13:29

1knocker good summary. Coverage on pg 8 of The Times!

[eggbaconandbubble] 28/3/2021 12:34

Time to call International Rescue. Virgil and Gordon with Thunderbird 2 & 4 should do the trick. 5...4...3...2...1... FAB Mr Tracy!

[1knocker] 28/3/2021 11:55

I think the problem is h=that it is aground bow and stern, so that lifting the bow would depress the stern, and vice versa, so that ameliorating the problem at one end would increase the problem at the other end! There is also a problem that when the tide is low the ship is inadequately supported midships, which is putting a strain on the hull it was not designed to bear. The ship was not designed to be used as a bridge, suspended by bow and stern across a cannal.
In the old days ships had their own derricks to load and discharge cargo. Not so this large containership. Getting a crane and lighters alongside to discharge a significant number of midships containers would be a major operation. Look at the height, and consider the weight which would need to be removed even to raise the ship one inch!
What seems to be the plan is to dredge bays at the bow and stern, so as to allow the ship to float at high tide and be swung parallel to the banks. If the bed is soft, suction dredging enables large quantities to be shifted quickly, but the softer and more mobile it is the more readily other material slides into the dredged hole ....
I bet a few people are hastily checking that their put their cheques for this year's insurance renewal premiums in the post!!

[v11slr] 28/3/2021 11:48

and when it cracks in the middle because of the uneven load, what are you going to do then?

[eggbaconandbubble] 28/3/2021 11:14

Sounds crazy but wouldn't it be an idea to push a load of containers off the bow where the ship is grounded and may be even load the stern with ballast.

FWIW The biggest boat I have sailed is 42' :-)

[r9505571] 28/3/2021 09:48

The boat is still stuck! https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1375556734236774407?s=21

[thags] 28/3/2021 09:43

Keep us posted bozzy