Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[pogue] 26/7/2024 18:52

If Trump goes far ahead in the polls Zelensky will be begging for a peace plan as that is effectively the high tide mark for his army. When the money stops he will lose lots more ground so peace deal before Trump takes power it odds on.
Zelensky has already changed his mind about inviting Russia to the 2nd peace conference, the first one he did not invite Putin Alice in Wonderland politics I know.

[sbb1x] 26/7/2024 18:09

Closed at low of the day, even if trump wins, he won't be in the white house until January

[pogue] 26/7/2024 14:49

Its the trend I am watching just now. Definite, if expected, swing up for Harris. Will see how it lasts

[stockhunters] 26/7/2024 13:57

pogue I would be careful on polls if anyone remembered Hilary Clinton polls they had her winning with a huge lead, funding bias is a real problem

[pogue] 26/7/2024 13:53

Oddly I am watching US opinion polls on whether to put cash in here lol
Currently there is a surge in the Democrat vote with Harris stepping up but she is not the most intelligent person out there and I am convinced she was put as VP to make Biden look intelligent. She will have a few skeletons in her cupboard that will come out as well am sure, jailing hash smokers in California and refusing to confirm or deny if she had ever smoked it is a minor one but shows she is a hypocrite but then again 99% of politicians are but the better ones hide it. First presidential debate will be interesting.

[stockhunters] 26/7/2024 13:17

jp2011 this war cannot go on indefinitely unless you are suggesting the West put soldiers on the ground and start WW3, lack of soldiers is becoming a problem

Peace is the next step especially once Trump starts putting spotlight on what exactly is being funded

Also worth mentioning if you wait for a peace deal news you will probably be paying well over 100p the same day

[pogue] 26/7/2024 09:29

Ukraine have to accept the loss of Crimea and the land lost in the war its not an option for them to get it back. They dont have the manpower never mind the equipment to take it back. If Trump gets in he is going to stop the war by stopping funding very easliy, no money, no bribes, no weapons simple. Ukrainians are getting very tired of the war try looking past the Western propaganda to independent journalists and look at protests by the citizens on lack of electricity which come winter they are already talking of 12 hours a day electricity maximum, and the universal hatred of the draft. The people want peace and if opposition parties were allowed in Ukraine, they would be making this known. Yes I know we only fight for democracies but clearly rules are made to be bent, one of the many rules the West are happy to break when they want a war.

[jp2011] 26/7/2024 09:15

How likely is a peace deal, pretty much remote if Russia refuses 2014 position and refuses to hand back Crimea. Baron on Twitter thought this was a buy around 120p & is now hyping to his +10,000 followers, so investors should be very careful. This war could go on indefinitely. But I can see 150-200p when it finally ends.

[stockhunters] 26/7/2024 08:14

presumably dividend will be the same price as they left it

that is the long term play huge dividend from these levels

[trader465] 25/7/2024 20:17

It’s an easy double even from 70p

A Trump win and a sniff of peace in Ukraine we’ll see this going back to 3/400p

[thags] 25/7/2024 20:10

I did say it's going to 70p where there's a huge wall of resistance. May take some time getting through that

[smackeraim] 25/7/2024 18:35

going init

[trader465] 25/7/2024 11:21

Looking like going to 80p pretty quick, added another position here

[stockhunters] 19/7/2024 14:51

opportunity?

[pogue] 18/7/2024 19:45

Bellbottom
I am very open minded but I have seen original source videos and/or recordings for much of what has happened in the leadup and during this war I am pretty clear on the cause and the direction of the war. In a few decades the actual amount of human suffering will eventually become clear however the instigators will cover their tracks as they have already and propaganda will never stop covering it.

[loganair] 18/7/2024 19:17

Ukraine has a massive shortage of man power to continuing fighting, which in turn is leading to a shortage of man power just to be able to run the country.

In March several senior Ukrainian Generals said the Ukraine needs 100,000 new men to just bring current operational Brigades up to full strength and they need a further 150,000 new men (total of 1/4 million new men) if the Ukraine are going to hold their current positions against the Russian army.

These generals went on to say they would require a further 100,000 new men if the Ukraine was to have another 2023 type Summer offensive and 150,000 on top of that (1/2 million new men) if they were to have any chance of succeeding in pushing a wedge all the way through to the Black Sea.

[bellbottom] 18/7/2024 18:54

Thanks for the links Pogue, I'll check them out - all info worth checking and sharing.

It will take decades to dissect the war once its over - pretty much like the great war and WW2. It used to be the victors that wrote history but with social media we all have the option of creating our own history. People will believe what they already believe - classic reinforce what already exists and you create a whole support network.

[pogue] 18/7/2024 18:42

bellbottom
Europe will not buy American arms the whole point of the war is to feed the military industrial complex in your own country otherwise you are giving away the money completely and receive no 'lobby' cash in return. Besides Europe has no chance of being able to provide enough cash the Ukrainians are short of everything right now including men and that's with US backing! The recent conference by the EU to raise money was headlined at $100 billion in the end all they could agree on was $40 billion. That is not going to keep the Ukrainians in weapons for long even the ones that arnt stolen or sold before they get there.
I use mappers on Youtube to follow the war day to day. Plenty there from both sides best one is the guy below he is ex Aussy army and he gets a lot of info from his mates on the front line he also gets them to talk in interviews and they tell it how it really is. Yesterday on his Telegram group he shared a video from the Ukrainian Azov brigade committing a war crime so hard hitting stuff and not sugar coated.

This guy is more basic and just does the daily maps. He sounds Eastern European but his info is very good and has a lot of geolocation footage to prove his map info is accurate.

From both those sources alone its blatantly obvious the war is being lost by Ukraine and its going to take something more than just a few $ to turn it around.

[loganair] 18/7/2024 17:33

bellbottom - "What's to stop Europe just buying the arms from the US and them passing on to Ukraine?"

Germany has already stated that it will reduce its military aid to the Ukraine by half in 2025.

[bellbottom] 18/7/2024 16:20

Usually my first port of call for a wide base of news. Even then it still doesn't give a wholly true picture.

[bellbottom] 18/7/2024 16:16

We'll see in the fullness of time Pogue.

What's to stop Europe just buying the arms from the US and them passing on to Ukraine? A win win situation for Trump - America first - they get the revenue and Europe can continue to support Ukraine? I know that sounds too simplistic but surely all options are on the table.

I read news from all over, not just the UK - Russian media and Ukraine media for what they are both worth in terms of reality?! What is real info Pogue? In times of war lies and propoganda are the tools that accompany the machinery of death.

A few links worth reading..

[pogue] 18/7/2024 15:33

bellbottom
you listen too much to UK media try getting real info. The Russians have a bigger and stronger army than before the war and are advancing daily, even Ukrainian sources agree on that. Zero shortages of equipment infact I saw an unofficial phone cam video of a new type of armoured personnel carrier coming out of a factory gate yesterday on a trial run.
Re peace the Ukrainians are already looking at the possibility and agreeing to having Russia in talks. The simple fact is if the US stops giving Ukraine money and weapons the war stops and that will happen quickly if Trump is elected so Zelensky needs a peace deal to avoid being overwhelmed in that scenario and losing even more ground than he has already. Europe does not have enough industrial capacity to build the equipment Ukraine needs Europe dont even have enough ammunition for a few days of war for themselves never mind feeding Ukraine its needs.
FXPO seems to be getting the idea.

[loganair] 18/7/2024 13:07

If Trump does a peace deal with Russia, more than likely he'll turn round to Zelensky and say either take it or you'll get no more financial or military aid from the U.S.

J.D. Vance has said he doesn't care what happens to Ukraine.

Germany has already stated in its budget for 2025, military aid to the Ukraine is going to be cut in half.