Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[r9505571] 27/2/2020 22:50

https://mobile.worldmaritimenews.com/archives/291670/vale-20-evacuated-after-giant-iron-ore-ship-starts-listing/

[r9505571] 27/2/2020 21:01

Who is your profitable gold miner?

[bozzy_s] 27/2/2020 13:12

Nothing to suggest the dividend's at risk. Pellet prices still fine, dropping from a high of 106 to 100 in the past few days. FXPO still making a fat margin on everything it produces. Everything's down, pretty much. My profitable gold miner has dropped 20% since Monday morning, despite a positive RNS, and making bigger profits due to the gold price rally. Quality will shine through in the end. And the chance to get a better dividend yield while the shares fall - fine by me!

[bellbottom] 27/2/2020 09:07

Well, what can we do? We were at 157.75p a week ago and in hindsight turning stocks into cash would have been the correct move. But in the space of just one week the stock market is being pulled back by the sensationalist headlines and almost continual news items regarding Coronavirus. Roll on 18th March when Fxpo 2019 preliminary results announced. But no telling what size a hole the world will have dug for itself by then. My real and virtual portfolios almost entirely red and have been all week. A previous shining star managed fund has tumbled to levels not seen for almost a year, so this drop is right across the board. BB

[bozzy_s] 25/2/2020 15:27

I don't usually like companies buying back their own shares. But if this slump were to take us towards a ridiculous price of £1, it'd be a great place to spend some of FXPO's excess cash. That's assuming the iron ore price stays strong, as it has so far. Barely changed during yesterday's bloodbath. Http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp

[bellbottom] 25/2/2020 11:53

I hadn't realised that the ex CEO of Ferrexpo had been in the market to 'own' another bank, after the demise of his Finance and Credit Bank of Ukraine. But I suppose it is useful to have ownership of such an establishment to move money around. It seems he owns 21.2% of the Union Bank of Liechtenstein, which also appears to be a bank interested in becoming involved in cryptocurrencies. Maybe that was one of the other attractions in investing in such a bank. I believe the ex CEO has had his investment in the Union Bank frozen while investigations into money laundering are ongoing and concluded. In the meantime, Union Bank are desperate for new investors before their banking license runs out. Https://www.ico.li/binance-open-to-exploring-a-partnership-with-liechtenstein-based-union-bank/ Https://www.vaterland.li/liechtenstein/wirtschaft/union-bank-kaempft-weiter-ums-ueberleben;art173,408814 Whether this news is good, bad or irrelevant to Ferrexpo I have no idea as yet. It's all tied up with the ongoing investigations by the Ukrainian authorities. The sooner this is resolved, the better all round. BB

[bellbottom] 24/2/2020 18:31

Ok, so the biggest drop in the FTSE 100 in over four years as we see a drop of 3.3% today. Inevitable that fxpo would fall back. But let's not dwell on the CV19 effect. Yes it will have a mid term effect, which we should see as another chance to buy at low prices. Still good news out there regarding production levels now that we are fully operational after all the refurbishment works of recent years. Https://concorde.ua/rs/daily/item_75871/ BB

[bellbottom] 21/2/2020 09:27

Are we to have our typical Friday drop again today? A couple of articles from the excellent Concorde Capital - worth saving to your favourites list for news on Ferrexpo. This goes over old ground and news from last month, but sheds a bit more light on the outstanding issues with the ex CEO and the particulars of his situation and how this may affect shareholders. Https://concorde.ua/rs/daily/item_75780/ Https://concorde.ua/rs/daily/item_75639/ This last link is worth trawling through the news items on Ferrexpo even if just to read the last paragraphs of each news article, which are a summary of the news stories by the excellent Dmytro Khoroshun. Https://concorde.ua/rs/search/?query=ferrexpo&dateFrom=&dateTo= BB

[jonnyupite1] 20/2/2020 13:04

Even if he was to forced to sell some or all of his holding it wouldnt be bad the company would probally be bought out .. the market dosent like Any uncertainty thats why these are selling so cheap .

[bellbottom] 20/2/2020 11:40

Napoleon, It would be easier for the Ukraine Govt to confiscate other business wealth or properties that are Ukrainian based or registered. Surely more complicated with Ferrexpo which is Swiss registered and listed on the London Stock Exchange. The ex CEO owns many diverse businesses and properties that could more easily be seized to pay off any debts owing. If I was he, I would pay up from the proceeds or sale of other owned businesses or pay with cash, if he has any cash of course. He may be cash strapped and unable to rasie enough without selling something. Ferrexpo being the third largest iron ore producer on the planet, with all the expansion and maximising production and reducing debt that's gone on in the last few years suggests that they have a long way yet to to go in building a world beating company. I would suggest Ferrexpo is his main business, his baby, if you like, and would be a last resort to part with ownership or reduce his shareholding. Who knows. It's a murky business and there are bound to be serious negotiations going on behind closed doors. After all, he has stepped down from his role as CEO of Ferrexpo for two reasons. To not affect the business of Ferrexpo and also to concentrate on resolving the issues, which are many. I still hold and happy to see a good rise today. I have been tempted to sell on a few occasions in the last few weeks but remain hopeful that the next few years will see us back between £3 and £4 a share. Good luck. BB

[bellbottom] 20/2/2020 10:24

One of the preconditions for the recent agreed IMF funding facility to Ukraine of $5.5 billion, is the requirement to adopt laws preventing courts from returning insolvent banks to former owners. Obviously this would include the defunct Finance and Credit bank formerly owned by the ex CEO of Ferrexpo. BB

[bozzy_s] 19/2/2020 16:08

Thanks for the link in 6952 bellbottom Seems that 2020 has started well for FXPO. Prices are holding strong. Production up 15% v 2019. And H1 2019 was exceptionally profitable. If prices stay strong, and output continues to beat 2019, with less debt interest payable, are we looking at even better earnings for 2020? Are we looking at future dividends, once debt has been repaid, in the 30s or 40s pence per share?

[napoleon 14th] 19/2/2020 14:58

BB - I believe Zhevago's shares are not transferable due to legal action. What that means is that he can't take the loot and scoot. He's accused of that in his bank dealings..... If he's found guilty, the worst that could happen is that either the state takes some/all of his shares as compensation for his missdeeds, or that a sale of a part/all of the shares to A.N.Other (mining/metals company) is made to obtain compensation, whether Zhevago likes it or not. I suspect the state would take them on its' own books and sell them on later "in an orderly fashion" (= make a killing on the way!). My optimistic version is that current holders would be offered shares on a one-for-one basis at market price, which I for one would take up entirely. Then let the price settle to a realistic level..... Anyway, IMO the sooner this is over the better. I hold & ain't selling - the fundies are far too good. LTBH.

[r9505571] 19/2/2020 13:04

The world's biggest mining group has reported rising profits on the back of stronger iron ore prices, but also has sounded a warning over the possible impact of the coronavirus.Net profit at BHP in the six months to December increased by 29 per cent to $4.9 billion, with iron ore prices having risen since the Brumadinho disaster in Brazil in January last year. The collapse of a waste dam at Vale's iron ore mine killed 270 people and led to several mines being taken out of operation.

[bellbottom] 19/2/2020 11:45

A 15% increase in pellet output for January 2020. Https://concorde.ua/rs/daily/item_75841/ BB

[bellbottom] 19/2/2020 11:01

Just an update on the actual Ukraine parliament vote on royalty payments for iron ore. This removed the proposal for royalty payments on the final product, so remains a payment based on the raw material only. Based on 2018 figures this would have meant an increase of $43 million in royalty payments instead of the actual payment of $7 million based on the raw material. So, good news in that respect. Apologies if this has already been discussed and I've missed it. Https://concorde.ua/rs/daily/item_75708/ BB

[zho] 19/2/2020 09:11

FXPO is printing cash...... says https://twitter.com/Trader__007 Most of FXPO's production is 65% and prices have risen strongly in February, as shown by https://twitter.com/Trader__007/status/1229679811699847170/photo/1

[bellbottom] 19/2/2020 09:05

I realise this article could be considered as old news, but I copy the last section of the article which raises some concerns. I am not clear on what assets the authorities can legally seize to cover the sums of money owing? How will this directly affect Ferrexpo, if at all? I believe asset seizure has already begun but it's not clear yet what property or assets have been seized. The figure quoted as being siphoned off from the defunct Finance and Credit bank to companies belonging to the ex CEO amounts to about $100 million. Https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/trending/k93nttrvemz29clfvq6jbw2 "While Ferrexpo is listed in London with headquarters in Switzerland, its mining projects and pellet plant are in Ukraine, where domestic authorities could seize assets if they are unable to recover stolen funds, according to Voloshin. "The future of Ferrexpo is uncertain. The main problem is that Zhevago not only used to be the CEO from 2008 until resigning in October 2019 but also remains the majority shareholder," Voloshin told Market Intelligence. "If a convincing case is made that his investments into Ferrexpo are made up of tainted money, the company might need a painful turnaround." Ferrexpo's shares have lost around half their value since it emerged in April that Blooming Land Charitable Foundation, through which the company supports philanthropic projects, was under investigation for alleged money laundering and tax evasion. In addition, potential iron ore royalty increases in Ukraine pose a serious negative risk to Ferrexpo's earnings, according to a Dec. 4 note from BCS Global Markets. Expenses could rise to a range of about US$130 million to US$155 million, up from US$30 million, reducing EBITDA by about 20% to 25%, according to the report." BB

[bozzy_s] 18/2/2020 23:30

More than doubled my position in FXPO today. Below are some of my thoughts before doing so: > Dividend yield 13.3% if interim and final dividends are unchanged from last year (6.6c + 13.2c + 6.6c = 20p per share) > Special dividend paid in January was doubled from last year at 6.6c, increasing my confidence that interim + final will be at least as high as 2019's 13.2c and 6.6c > Swiss witholding tax 35% on dividends. 15% can be reclaimed under the double taxation treaty with UK. Please correct me if I'm wrong!! > Trading statement on 13th January confirmed the cash balance had increased from $62m in Dec-18 to $131m in Dec-19 > Net debt reduced from $340m in Dec-18, to $282m in Dec '19 > The above was achieved while paying dividends of 23.1c per share > H1 results showed EPS of 45.8c. Expecting H2 to be slightly lower (production was down about 3.5%, from 5353k tonnes to 5165k) > Let's take a conservative 30c EPS for H2. 75c for 2019 = 57.7p > FXPO at 150p therefore trading on a P/E of 2.6 There are some risks. Global economic slowdown, perhaps due to Coronavirus, hitting pellet prices. Zhevago becoming a forced seller. But, with a dividend yield of 13.3% and trading at 2.6 times annual earnings, I think there's more upside than down from 150p. FXPO paid big dividends in 2019 while still building up a pile of cash. Their production line has been working at full capacity since Q4 2019, for the first time since 2014 (as per trading update 13-1-20). All other things being unchanged, I'd expect a re-rating around FY 2019 results & dividend announcement in ~April/May

[napoleon 14th] 18/2/2020 19:03

Hardly surprising...

[r9505571] 18/2/2020 15:27

BHP: Lengthy coronavirus outbreak to hurt 2020 iron ore demandMining giant says lengthy outbreak would be damaging for both real activity and market sentiment

[divmad] 18/2/2020 15:22

Are his fxpo shares held in an escrow account pending the outcome of the court case, or are they being dumped on the market already?

[bellbottom] 18/2/2020 15:07

Just a reminder of the quite frankly atrocious situation that was the scale of the losses in the banking sector in Ukraine and the huge amounts of money 'defrauded,' and moved offshore, if indeed that be the case. In the case of the ex CEO's defunct Bank of Finance and Credit, the amount owing is quoted in The Kyiv Post as being $440 million. Https://www.kyivpost.com/business/ukraine-danger-never-recovering-stolen-billions.html?cn-reloaded=1 There is a three year statute of limitations in prosecuting criminal bank fraud. I suspect proceedings were legally started in the case of most of those banks, if not all of them, within that three year period. This could run on for many more years. If recent news stories be correct then the ex CEO has already had property seized within Ukraine. At least the fxpo share price is holding up reasonably well despite all the recent sh*t that has hit the proverbial fan. BB