Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[arcadian] 07/4/2021 13:54

Trading update tomorrow. Let`s hope it`s licensed.

[bozzy_s] 07/4/2021 13:35

Quick comment on New Zealand. Lefrene on the AAZ thread (39706) wrote about their family's experience of being raided by police for not having a dog licence, 3 months after correctly registering the death of their dog:

"I have a daughter in NZ on the South Island, she has been there about 15 years now and is an NZ citizen, I have visited several times for up to three months at a time. NZ is not the place it's cracked up to be, rife with nepotism. Land is very tightly held within the long established farming families, those farming families also tend to hold much of the better commercial property too. Housing can be expensive, which is mad in such a thinly populated country.

Policing can be heavy handed, officials seem to have right of entry without warrants. Some dog wardens barged into my daughters house uttering threats about no dog license. The dog had been put down three months earlier, and the death registered by the vet. But there was no preamble with letters or phone call enquiring why there was no license, just three 'heavies' barging straight into the house at 8am! I could go on, NZ while it has certain charms, isn't the place it appears to be from afar"

[bellbottom] 07/4/2021 11:22

Ukraine desperate for NATO membership before the Ruskies invade, led by mad dog Putin who is trying to shore up his popularity with the usual tactic of getting his weapon out and waving it around carelessly. Even Zelensky is worried by his own drop in ratings and with these two facts we are likely to see some irrational behaviour by both teams. If only it was just a game?

Obviously Nato membership will create its own issues. And rabid Putin has another fifteen years to build his legacy.



Looking forward to 1Q prod report tomorrow. As for Barclays price target, another case of a broker closing the gate after the horse has bolted.

BB

[arcadian] 07/4/2021 10:13

BARCLAYS RAISES FERREXPO PRICE TARGET TO 300 (190) PENCE - 'UNDERWEIGHT'

----------

[almagreira] 06/4/2021 17:32

Got this mail yesterday from the CEO

Dear Black Iron Shareholder,

A number of shareholders have recently reached out to me asking about the impact on Black Iron from the recent flare up of conflict in Eastern Ukraine.

It is important to know Black Iron’s Shymanivske project is located in the center of Ukraine well away from the conflict area in the far Eastern boarder with Russia on the other side of the Dnipro river which physically separates Ukraine’s East from the West. The seven operation iron ore mines located within 40km of Black Iron have never stopped running or been impacted by this conflict which has been going on for seven years. Adults in all areas outside of the far eastern boarder of the country with Russia continue to go to work and kids to school with no impact on their daily life.

The very recent flare up of conflict in Eastern Ukraine seems to be driven by Russia President Putin reacting to USA President Biden saying Putin is a killer. By intensifying the conflict, Putin is challenging the extent of Biden’s stated support for Ukraine’s sovereignty while also gaining domestic support for his political party given Russian Parliamentary elections are occurring this September.

I have spoken to several people living in Ukraine and the general view is there is not a spirit of war in the country and the current situation is merely saber rattling by Putin that is being over dramatized by newspapers. If Russia wanted to take over Ukraine they would have pushed a lot harder to do so back in 2014 when the conflict initially started but the front line has not moved in seven years. To do so now does not make sense as Russia has a lot to lose in terms of international trade sanctions/relations and very little to gain.

As recently reported, my team and I are currently finalizing the selection of an offtake company that will make a large investment towards project construction. We remain on track to make an announcement about this milestone achievement very soon.

Matt



About Black Iron
Black Iron is an iron ore exploration and development company, advancing its 100% owned Shymanivske project located in Kryviy Rih, Ukraine. The Shymanivske project contains ......

[denziiil] 06/4/2021 16:57

Fe65 pellets $263/tFingers and toes crossed this blows over quickly.

[bozzy_s] 06/4/2021 13:49

Thanks for that BB. Mine was a bit of a guess, roughly looking at the distance between Poltava and the nearest Russian border. The conflict area is, at the moment, thankfully, much farther away.

[bellbottom] 06/4/2021 09:14

Hi Bozzy,

I think the mines are much further away than just 100 miles. More like 250 miles.
Have a look at the Ferrexpo operations map and you can check on a google map against areas of main fighting. For instance, Donetsk is about 400 km from Poltava. Most recent fighting was at Avdiivka, a short distance from Donetsk.



BB

[bozzy_s] 06/4/2021 04:36

Quick stress test calcs if iron ore and pellet premium drop by 50% (from $260 to $130 per tonne):

FXPO's cash costs from FY 2020 accounts was $41.50 per tonne.

Therefore annual production of 12 million pellets, sold at half today's price, should make FXPO approx $88.50 per tonne = $1.06 billion gross profit. Deduct admin costs, depreciation etc for net profit.

While I'm sure the share price would fall if pellet prices halved, FXPO should still be making decent money.

Relieved there was no escalation over the weekend by Russia. I did take a peek at how far from the front line FXPO's mines are. Looks to be around 100 miles at nearest point.

[its the oxman] 05/4/2021 23:29

From Monks last report, just got to decide who or what you believe. Not wholly convinced about a super cycle myself but stronger metal and ore prices may still very possibly last significantly longer than people think or analysts currently model.The portfolio's second cohort of changes relates to Monks' desire to seek opportunities which are uncorrelated with its existing portfolio. The purchases of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto as diversified commodities businesses offer alternative drivers of future growth for the portfolio. A supply-side contraction in the commodities sector (industry capital expenditure peaked in 2012) coupled with the likelihood of a moderate uptick in demand from the infrastructure needs of emerging markets and a green stimulus may present an attractive long-term growth opportunity.

[zho] 05/4/2021 15:23

"Iron ore has been strong for over two years now, above $150/t, but prices are widely expected to fall from 2022."

From

Behind paywall but searching on text should give access.

[croasdalelfc] 05/4/2021 08:55

Ukrainian soldiers wearing SS symbols and more - https://twitter.com/nikgerassimow/status/1378768153774338050?s=21

[croasdalelfc] 05/4/2021 08:11

It's more than just sabre rattling with UKraine buying Turkish drones which won the Azerbaijan war last year : read this German correspondent who has been report ting the build up of BOTH sides since mid Feb https://twitter.com/nikgerassimow/status/1378329257265537028?s=21

[bellbottom] 04/4/2021 22:29

Hi Firtashia,

Sorry, you're right of course and I am guilty of generalising, reference 'sabre rattling. I am mainly referring to the likes of Russia and US with their big toys and manoeuvres, showing off their hardware. The Russians flaunt on the borders and the US and her allies have regular Black Sea manoeuvres.

Putin knows he can get away with mostly anything. He has proved it and continues to prove it. He has a legacy to build and like a mad dog, if you corner him he will bite you.

I have no answers. But before we start bombing each other on a huge scale I think it best to have some true and sincere talks. And if they don't work then the world needs to lose a large chunk of humanity in any case to help save the planet. There's just too many of us.

Ok, being cynical there and slightly tongue in cheek. I wish I had a clever answer.
Like some wise person said "Politicians are like diapers/nappies. They need to be changed regularly and for the same reason."

Putin being around for another 15 years is a frightening thought.

[firtashia] 04/4/2021 18:58

Hi BB. While Russian troops swell at the Ukrainian border and occupied Crimea, and the world debates over whether they will go one step further, what do you think Zelensky’s response is.... he decides to go to Qatar on an official visit followed by a holiday. That’s a true Ukrainian response. A finger up to huylo, who isn't going to do a damn thing. You urge diplomacy, huylo wants nothing but Ukrainian capitulation, and Zelensky has learnt that all too quickly. It took Poroshenko 2 months to learn you can’t talk to huylo, and the Germans and French still haven’t learnt that in 20 years. No point talking to Russia without carrying a big stick. And BTW, what sabre rattling & militarism from the Ukrainian side do you speak of? Have Ukraine threatened to invade Russia, or merely defend/recover their own territory? Kuban nasz, though that’s only my own personal opinion :-)

[mustau] 03/4/2021 22:14

Firt
Was not aware of the numbers losing their lives, let’s hope this is resolved for the sake people.
I really feel Biden and the west are playing their home crowd!

[firtashia] 03/4/2021 20:54

Bellbottom- you make some valid points about the water shortages in Crimea. One of Khruschev’s reasons for “transferring” Crimea from the authority of the Russian SSR to the Ukrainian SSR was to improve co-ordination of the water supply between the latter and the peninsula- Crimea has no natural rivers. Knowing this, it is inconceivable that huylo intended to stop his invasion of Ukraine at Crimea and leave control of the water supply in Ukrainian hands. As the UN has deemed Crimea to be under occupation, according to the Geneva convention the occupant, Russia, is deemed responsible for providing for the people of Crimea. Therefore Ukraine’s actions in diverting water from Crimea to other areas of Ukraine potentially under threat of drought are not illegal under international law.

[xamf] 03/4/2021 19:36

Thanks Bozzy and Arcadian for your FE and pellet price links.

[mustau] 03/4/2021 09:21

Having these exercises for years.
A little skirmish which seems to have been blown out of proportion, China/India skirmishes had over a 100 dead, hardly made the press here.
Yet again western interference, can’t see Rabb running towards a battle, likely hide in his bunker with his stooges!

Either way the Return on investment is bloody good here, I’ll be taking full advantage.

[r9505571] 03/4/2021 09:12

Moscow has warned the White House against sending soldiers to Ukraine after Kiev accused the Kremlin of massing troops on its border. A Russian spokesman threatened'unspecified measures' if US forces arrived in the region while it held military exercises in the south of the country to practice defence against attack drones. America said it would stand by its ally in the event of Russian aggression. Dominic Rabb said that he was gravely concerned about Russian military activity which threatens Ukraine and reaffirmed the UK support for its sovereignty and territorial integrity

[r9505571] 02/4/2021 21:40

Watching a programme on CH5 about the cost of human life in conflict in war. I don't think either side want war in this situation, I hope diplomacy prevails here and some sort of compromise is reached.