Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[geckotheglorious] 10/7/2023 10:41

Kael,

Black swans indeed.
See FXPO - Ukraine war!

CAML seems to be chugging along though despite all the uncertainty in the world.

Kazakhstan. Polymetal re-domiciling to Kazak exchange. Be interesting to see how that pans out.

Mining sector especially fraught with black swan risk..

[kael] 07/7/2023 23:04

Unfortunately black swans can and do happen all the time, and that's part of the risk in equities. It's up to the individual to decide what's a comfortable position to hold to not have sleepless nights. I'd argue if you're anxious the position size is too large, but that's for you to work out. I will say I do empathise as I've been there and done that and the months of sleepless nights were not worth it! All we can hope for with the caml board here is that they navigate through the stormy sea of late with the good management theyve carried out in the past. The company is profitable even in a high vol scenario for commodities and rising costs.I personally think they were too eager to announce they're actively searching especially in this environment, credit markets are clearly tight... markets generally prefer surprises to the upside...rather than an "imminent" event happening that actually happens years later as the discourse ends up focusing on that one event that always comes later than everyone expects!

[scrwal] 07/7/2023 22:06

The policy is 30-50% of FCF.
2022 was 47%.

[divmad] 07/7/2023 19:15

Is there a company imposed rule on the amount of Fcf that Caml can distribute each year as dividends?

[melton john] 07/7/2023 15:16

Well that's exactly what I've been hoping and yet the price keeps falling. I've had one five figure loss recently and I don't want another.

[kael] 07/7/2023 14:04

CAML have no need to buy anything right now and it would make sense for them to quell the rumours about it. There are other ways to make a cash pile work for the business advantage. Wait for global recession to hit hard and for unviable businesses to fail and pick them up on the cheap with other interested parties if need be. There is going to be plenty of time and companies to acquire when the dust settles. CAML is in a formidable position and companies in such positions can make a killing in these conditions provided they are patient and don't rush into deals. CAML is years away from anything being a concern, hopefully they talk less about acquisitions to the market going forward and only start when they actually have a good deal done and dusted.

[the deacon] 06/7/2023 12:22

I'd like to think they're exploring some royalty/streaming funding. Many of the streamers are willingly funding copper projects that have a precious metal by-product. Pretty much all the royalty and streaming CEOs will identify good copper/gold assets as top priority, and with debt and equity expensive right now they're starting to see an increase in potential deal flow

[melton john] 06/7/2023 11:55

I think some clarity on funding an acquisition might help along with a production update. The price continues to drop as if people think a discounted share issue might be on the cards. Borrowing cash seems a non-starter.

[pughman] 06/7/2023 10:18

Bought a few at £1.757. Next week Q2 production figures.

[melton john] 27/6/2023 10:00

Agree, maybe shorts are closing on the other producers. We're at my average price over the last three years, my lowest being a short term dip to 148 in 2020. Not a short term punt but long term can't lose with copper, there's no alternative at the price. Collect the divi, repeat.

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[dougmachin] 26/6/2023 18:17

Now's the time to buy more, if you can. I'll be taking a few more again soon.

[2603] 26/6/2023 17:25

Down every day. Ffs surely this price is built in to not even making a profit. No loan to pay for, making lots of profit. Yet it finishes negative everyday. This could have 80-100m in the bank at year end. No chance of dilution if they find anything to buy. They can borrow what ever. Frustrated.

[briggs1209] 26/6/2023 09:54

nah, just pre-recession positioning. Hopefully CAML can find a bargin using cash (rather than paper) and we can come out the other side with a nice asset.

[gotabsirius] 26/6/2023 09:53

It's dropping with peers...looks a great opportunity if you're bullish copper!

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 26/6/2023 09:51

Or is there more going on here than meets the eye?

[adorling] 26/6/2023 08:19

…. Some drop since Feb high of 290p? Is it time to start building a position again?

[spawny100] 23/6/2023 15:06

Well that was a truly shocking week for anyone invested in commodities.

[coxsmn] 23/6/2023 08:00

Too cheap here but not alone in this regard.I think the markets would like to see an acquisition made to add some reserves and growth.

[dougmachin] 22/6/2023 10:46

Well, I just took another 5K more.
I think this is oversold / and there's been downward momentum selling.
Also, then it's been marked down disproportionately by those lovely MMs.
Director's buying a bit too.
The worry is the extra tax, but doesn't sound too bad for CAML as they process to quality Cu cathode in country.
Could be this is the bottom... I can only hope!

[pughman] 22/6/2023 09:27

Metal prices doing o.k. FCF 22, $89.7m(H1-$52.1m,H2-$37.6m). Guesstimate FCF 23, $70m-$80m. 50% of $80m=17p dividend.

[gotabsirius] 22/6/2023 08:27

Why 75% of 2022 level? Compare spot prices and they are probably on par with H2 2022. Lead approaching year high from January and copper trading around mean 8,500. Company is printing cash. Cash should be circa $100m at year end

[frazboy] 22/6/2023 08:20

At some point this will become a bit of a hedge against sterling weakness. Sterling isn't weak currently but with the current newsflow (UK debt and difficulty getting on top of inflation) this is something to be watched.Anyone got any thoughts on FCF for this year? Zinc has been notably week throughout 2023 so I'm not expecting earning to be anywhere near the 2022 level. Maybe 75% of that number?

[spawny100] 21/6/2023 14:28

FFS but of a bloodbath lately in resource stocks. Wish I'd sold in May and gone away as the adage goes!