Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Central Asia Metals LSE:CAML London Ordinary Share GB00B67KBV28 ORD USD0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -11.50p -4.27% 258.00p 794,974 16:35:13
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
258.00p 259.00p 268.50p 256.50p 256.50p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 75.9 36.8 21.5 11.8 455.37

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Date Time Title Posts
19/6/201818:50Welcome to Central Asia Metals1,803
30/9/201011:25Kazak Copper with Mongolian Twist1

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Central Asia Metals Daily Update: Central Asia Metals is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CAML. The last closing price for Central Asia Metals was 269.50p.
Central Asia Metals has a 4 week average price of 256.50p and a 12 week average price of 256.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 345.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 203p.
There are currently 176,498,266 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,088,636 shares. The market capitalisation of Central Asia Metals is £455,365,526.28.
bluerunner: Good point, Bogdan. H1 2018 should be available in the latter half of September.The current share price weakness is something I am regarding as an unexpected opportunity prior to that.This is pertinent given that previous results were adversely affected by an unusually cold spell of weather (-28C) even for that region.Fundamentals, dividend, sector outlook all look strong for CAML.
bogdan branislov: Re the share price volatility. I am pre-retirement age and investing is pretty well my entire income now, over 30% average annual compounding returns in a SIPP over 9 years, one more doubling of my holdings from here takes me to 25 times starting capital without any SIPP additions within a decade if I can do it within the next year, probably not achievable from here so I will have to settle for 25 times gains over 11 to 12 years sadly. Very concentrated portfolio currently just 4 stocks within a 7 figure fully invested portfolio, of which CAML is one, therefore a company whose quality and valuation I have a very clear conviction on. I have said it before and it say it again, nothing is achieved by watching short term price moves and getting frustrated. The quality of CAML is clear and the valuation case compelling. The stock became very over bought on weekly indicators following the recent run up. This simply means that some will take profits and others will not buy in, fearing a bigger pull back, until we have months of sideways movement which we have now had. Why do investors do this when the valuation case is so clear? No idea, but that is what they do. It is actually a good thing, a continuous run will create much greater volatility down the line with much bigger pull backs and periodic panic selling, putting off institutional buyers. So a few months of steady gains followed by a few months of sideways range is how we will see the major gains over a couple of years. Only now is the primary weekly over bought indicator for CAML really pulling back, the next phase up could be imminent, it could take until the end of the summer. Does this bother you? Is it too long for you to wait? really? Do not look at daily charts, look at weekly or monthly charts and not too often. You will then see that actually all is well here technically, if that really matters, which it does not, the valuation remains among the best in the market, that is what matters, patience now, patience.
bogdan branislov: Whilst CAML's stock price could of course fall further, two considerations suggest it might not. The first and primary reason is the fundamentals. The profitability and cash generation of CAML makes the forward earnings ratio very low indeed, probably less than half the current sector average. Also, CAML's share price appears to be consistently holding up at support levels - see weekly or monthly chart - this would suggest the price has found a base and weekly overbought indicators, following the recent price run, are unwinding nicely. If you are not already fully loaded, then now is the right entry point. Bogdan
bob_rjp: Hi kenmitch, Yes MT certainly seems to be well up to speed on CAML and its prospects. No problem with that. For myself I am not a trader. I buy and hold primarily for dividend income but taking profits if gains are significant. I am not looking to trade CAML and really dont want to sell it having not held it for all that long. But if it goes beyond my 10% loss threshold (and having reached my personal single stock investment limit) I almost certainly will sell if it goes lower, as I believe in cutting any losses early before they become significant and you get "locked in". Fervently hoping that the share price will recover a bit and that I can just hold. Might give it a bit more leeway than I normally would, but not as much as 250 !!. ATB.
kenmitch: bob. Mount Teide’s posts on CAML are superb and his investment methods are similar to mine. Constantly trading in and out of shares worked far less well for me (but good for my broker with regular dealing charges) than buying and holding, sometimes for many years, good quality shares. We’ll rarely time our buying exactly. I bought CAML a while ago at 176p and unless there is disappointing news am likely to continue to hold for years - or at least until general mining sector downturn .Mount Teide’s posts here explain why. The dividend at my buy price is 10% and this is another plus for long term hold ahead of trading. Dividends alone in time give big capital gains every year. All shares go up and down, and when newsflow is good dips are buying or top up opportunities. Current CAML share price dip could well prove to be a good entry price. There are quality shares I sold years ago when I used to trade more, that are now massively higher and some now pay an annual dividend higher than my share buy price! I.e in time these shares guarantee investment success. John Lee, the first ISA millionaire, has held some of his shares for ages, with some of his paying 100% or more (and still growing!)dividends every year. If I could live my investment life again I would do it his way, and forget trading, and except for small punts, speculation high risk sh*t or bust shares.
masurenguy: Good results and even better prospects going forward ! "2017 was a strong year for all of the base metals in CAML's portfolio, with the three metals averaging a price increase of 28%. Going forward into 2018, many industry commentators are expecting a challenging year for copper supply that could result in another positive 12 months for the copper price. In the zinc market, supply side challenges remain, while demand is expected to increase to over 15 million tonnes by 2019. The 2017 CAML share price closed at £3.06, which represents a 35% increase during the year, and reflected positive market sentiment following our Lynx Resources acquisition. We now move forward into 2018 as a larger and diversified base metals business, with low cost operations in two prospective jurisdictions. CAML has enjoyed an excellent 2017 and we look forward to continuing to build the Company's future in 2018." Nick Clarke, Chairman
mount teide: Copper $3.01/lb - H2/2017 Actual average $2.81/lb - QD Model Forecast for 2018 $3.16/lb - H1/2018 Average price (+12.4% above QD model) $3.02/lb - Current Price (7.5% above QD model) Lead $1.10/lb - H2/2017 Actual average $1.04/lb - QD Model Forecast for 2018 $1.14/lb - H1/2018 Average price (+9.6% above QD model) $1.10/lb - Current Price (+5.8% above QD model) Zinc $1.42/lb - H2/2017 Actual average $1.49/lb - QD Model Forecast for 2018 $1.55/lb - H1/2018 Average price (+4.0% above model) $1.50/lb - Current Price (+0.7% above QD model) On the figures, CAML's Q1/2018 revenue/earnings is likely to be running at circa 15% ahead of QD's 37.5p 2018 earnings forecast(itself equivalent to a PER of 8.1). I see the present circa 6%-7% correction in CAML's share-price from the recent high as driven more by the 10%+ (largely tech driven) general market correction and not the fundamentals of the industrial metals sector or CAML's business, which should be running comfortably ahead of brokers 2018 earnings forecasts to date; and should continue to do so even at current metal pricing. Added a further 7,500 this morning to an already well overweight position as I believe the risk/reward currently on offer considering the market and company fundamentals at this stage of the commodity cycle offers exceptional value. Following chart compares the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(20 major commodities) v S&P500 - over nearly 50 years - since June 2017 it has broken out of a near 10 year downtrend and 50 year low and turned sharply upwards, as a result of the GSCI since rising 22.6% while the S&P500 has only risen 7.2%. (Industrial metals and Oil/Gas each has a one third weighting in the GSCI) hTTp:// With the benefit of hindsight the deepest industrial metal sector recession in nearly half a century made a bottom in H1/2016 and saw the beginning of a new commodity cycle. I continue to watch for pullbacks to average up strategic positions in industrial metals and oil - first target, is the still lofty 50 year median of the GSCI v SP500 of 4.1. Following the notion of mean reversion - the outstanding fundaments of the industrial metals sector should continue to offer attractive investment opportunities over the years ahead and into the next decade - since when long term cyclical markets turn, like a pendulum or the declination of the sun - they travel through the mean position at the greatest velocity before slowly decelerating to rest at the extremes. AIMHO/DYOR
bogdan branislov: IC Comment today: Always a good source of ideas to look through in detail the bargain shares portfolio. U and I Group is a good inclusion. U and I Group is certainly one of the top two non-speculative buys available in terms of potential upside. The other one was not included, the mighty Central Asia Metals. A main market listing is being considered for later this year, CAML is currently in AIM, the share price is about at the point where CAML would go straight into the FTSE 250. I can see why technical analysis would make Simon more comfortable with U and I than CAML. U and I is currently enjoying a near 2 year price break out as well as the shareholdings being dominated by large institutional holdings, who have significantly replaced impatient retail investors over the past 18 months. Whereas CAML has risen in price significantly already. As Peter Lynch pointed out though, sometimes the stock that has already risen in price is also the one to buy. CAML was highly profitable and a very large dividend payer even during the metal price slump of recent years. Such is CAML's still highly attractive valuation and low operating costs, that there is considerable downside protection even if metal prices slump. But warehouse stocks are at long term lows, production investment has slumped in recent years, with little additional capacity coming on stream. On the demand side, it could not be more bullish. CAML looks to be heading for a 2018 PE in the mid single figures. There is a lot of expert comment of the main BB and listen to the IC podcast with CAML's CEO - tell me why I am wrong here. Doug
bogdan branislov: MT - thanks again for that. What is your view on a take over happening? Not so much whether CAML is a likely target, because at this price it probably is, but more whether you think a takeover will be a good thing for its shareholders. I ask this because two of my previous holdings that were taken over, Kentz (c2014) and Ithaca Energy (2017), although very profitable holdings for me over the long term, were taken over at relatively disappointing premiums to the share price at the point of the bid. The niggle with both was that these companies were taken out at prices which to me were still only priced around half a fair value of their forward earnings. If CAML were to be taken over now, whilst a fair value could easily be twice the current price level, we as shareholders may only realise a 30% premium on the current stock price in the event of takeover, nice to have, but CAML is worth far more. The other side of the coin of course is that a company seen as a likely takeover target, based on valuation, tends to go up in price very rapidly. What are your thoughts on how investors would fare in the event of a bid, do you think an assumed 30% premium above the current share price, if the bid came shortly, is too pessimistic. Bogdan
mount teide: Why I'm happy with the Central Asia Metals acquisition hTTps:// If I’m being completely honest then I have to admit that I was somewhat annoyed when an RNS from Central Asia Metals (CAML) initially landed to say that trading in the shares had been temporarily suspended pending the acquisition of a large asset. That annoyance though was largely driven by a shorter term view, as shares in the company had been doing very well and the price was increasing steadily in the run up to the financial results, which were expected to be good and with yet another high yielding dividend to be paid. Alongside that copper was flying and had just topped the $3.10/lb level. My main worry was that not only would momentum be lost – I think the share price could well have tested the 300p area, given that it was trading at around 254p just prior to suspension – but also that the market might not like the acquisition, and given that it was going to be large enough to constitute a reverse takeover, it needed to be well received if the company was going to continue to do as well as it has been in recent years. Part of that worry also related to the fact that the board had always been very careful in the past – having returned far more via dividends than the initial IPO, a real rarity amongst AIM resource stocks – and had managed to build up a tidy sum of cash in the bank and with no debt, which could all be about to change, given the sort of amounts that it would need to be paying for an asset in order to trigger a reverse takeover. This week all was finally revealed, including details of the acquisition and how it was going to be financed, and as feared thus far the market hasn’t exactly warmed to the deal, with the share price having drifted back 10% or so to the current level of around 230p. But having taken a bit of time to consider all of the info, I am still happy to be holding shares here for the longer term – albeit I’d have preferred it if the price hadn’t dropped back – and given that the £137 million in equity financing for the deal was raised at 230p, and the way the market tends to work these days, the current share price level probably shouldn’t come as any sort of surprise. The company has just announced an interim dividend of 6.5p – payable on October 27 – which compares favourably to the 5.5p one which it paid the previous year, and taking that into account (the new shares don’t qualify for the dividend), the placing was carried out at a 7.8% discount to the share price prior to that. Central Asia is to acquire zinc and lead miner Lynx Resources for $402.5 million from owners Orion Co-investments and Fusion Capital, with that sum being made up of $153.5 million from the placing; $120 million senior debt facility at 4.75% plus LIBOR; $67 million in existing Lynx debt facility at 5% plus LIBOR; $50 million worth of shares to Orion via an equity subscription. Lynx Resources operates the SASA mine in Macedonia, and during 2016 produced over 22,500 tonnes of zinc and nearly 29,000 of lead, which was broadly in line with production figures over the past eight years or so, and with a mine life expectancy up until 2032, there is plenty more to come along with the potential to extend that. The mine is among the lower cost producers, at $0.39/lb for zinc and $0.29/lb for lead, and with zinc currently around $1.4/lb and lead at $1.12/lb, both have been performing quite strongly of late. Looking at the financials for Lynx, it generated revenue of $66.7 million for 2016, resulting in an operating profit of $33 million and a net profit of $26.1 million, so I suspect that Central Asia has paid close to the going market price for the acquisition. It is always hard to predict what commodity prices are going to do in the future, but the signs are quite bullish at the moment for both metals, with increased demand, especially in countries such as China, the US and India, and that would of course benefit the company. This has also made the company into one of the few diversified producers listed on the AIM market – although I would expect a main market listing moving forwards – and I believe that it has also reduced some of the risk which was associated with the company previously. Whilst there haven’t been any problems for it at its Kounrad copper operation in Kazakhstan, in these sort of countries you never quite know when things can change, especially when it comes to mining rights and laws, so some geographical diversity is a good thing I think. It has also previously been totally reliant on copper and specifically Kounrad – although the other recent acquisition at Shuak has plenty of potential – and this acquisition at least allows it to diversify the risk to other metals as well. It is still very early days and it remains to be seen how well the new business is integrated into the current one – assuming of course that the acquisition is approved at the EGM on October 11 – but given the way that the management has been running the business, I would expect it to do well longer term. The latest set of financials for the company, the interims up to June 30 2017, had been strong, with higher levels of production, EBITDA up 41% on the same period in 2016 at $24 million, and a net profit of a little over $15 million, plus cash in the bank having grown to $41.7 million. Should we see the share price dip any lower then I will be very tempted to add more, as not only is there plenty of potential for growth, but I would still expect a decent dividend to be paid, as per the policy of the management thus far when it comes to returning some of the profits to investors.
Central Asia Metals share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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