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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Central Asia Metals LSE:CAML London Ordinary Share GB00B67KBV28 ORD USD0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 209.00p 9,570 08:22:51
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
210.00p 212.00p - - -
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 75.90 36.83 21.52 9.0 368.9

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Date Time Title Posts
10/12/201801:07Welcome to Central Asia Metals2,563
30/9/201010:25Kazak Copper with Mongolian Twist1

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Central Asia Metals Daily Update: Central Asia Metals is listed in the Mining sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker CAML. The last closing price for Central Asia Metals was 209p.
Central Asia Metals has a 4 week average price of 200p and a 12 week average price of 200p.
The 1 year high share price is 345.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 200p.
There are currently 176,498,266 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 341,635 shares. The market capitalisation of Central Asia Metals is £368,881,375.94.
kenmitch: True. And eps will be higher than it otherwise would have been. (Also good for Director bonus pay based on eps!) The mistake made by so many investors and commentators is thinking buybacks always mean a higher share price. They don't. e.g Apple example in previous post. Also if that was the case we would all win simply by buying in to Companies buying back their shares. There is a case for buybacks if the Company think the share price is too cheap but many companies buyback regardless of share price. e.g this year is a record year for buybacks in the US with as much as $1 trillion being spent on them. Note the last time buybacks were at record levels was just ahead of the massive markets crash in 2008. And again the buybacks have been with US markets and US share price valuations at very high levels. Too many investors and Companies never learn and so repeat mistakes. I'm very happy with CAML and really don't want to see them buying back their shares. Just hoping there's nothing worrying about them dropping out of Mello commitment at the last moment!
shieldbug: If CAML puts money into a buyback that will mean less available for dividends/debt repayment. CAML's dividend payments combined with its plan to reduce debt are a major attraction and will support the share price over time. Buybacks would be counter productive rewarding sellers not holders.
kenmitch: pol123 No. Buyback won't provide bigger boost than divi. APPPLE are buying back $100 BILLION this year... and recently, despite those huge buybacks, the Apple share price has fallen nearly 25%. There are loads of similar examples. So I don't want to see CAML wasting money on them. And the very big dividend yield is a big plus while we wait for the share price to recover.
ken tennis: ZEBBO if you track back I know everyone associates CAML with CU but look at the ZN chart in comparison to he CAML price chart and they almost correlate like a hand in a glove. I know CAML deal in CU ZN and PB as their main source of income but find they track the ZN chart almost exact. This is a good company and produce at such low AISC. ATB Ken
mount teide: Its easy for even long-term investors to sometimes fall into the trap of thinking and investing like a short term trader, since that's how the majority of the market now 'invests' and is largely responsible for the huge increase in equity and commodity market volatility over the past decade. CFD/Spreadbet Industry research tells us that more than 90% of short term traders lose money over the longer term. CAML share price research tells us that by employing a 15% trailing stop loss since first production in 2012 would have seen a CAML position stopped out on at least 15 occasions while, buying and holding would have seen 282% capital growth through to today, together with 120% of the original investment returned in dividends - a staggering performance when you consider that the majority of the returns were generated against the severe headwinds into 2016 of a brutal 6 year industrial metal market recession that brought most of the sector heavyweights to their knees. Market observation/research suggests thinking and 'investing' like a short term trader is highly likely to mirror their investment return performance and the huge mental stress that goes with the territory. The fact of the matter is that despite the price of copper falling circa 30% over the 6 years since CAML commenced production and, circa 50% by the 2016 recession low, anyone putting £100k into CAML in 2012 and then switching off their computer until today would have found by relying on the passage of time, CAML's very low cost business model, the commodity market cycle and the management skills of Nick Clarke and his team, they would have a big smile on their face because the investment would now be worth £403k, even without re-investing the dividends. By comparison, a similar investment in sector heavyweight Glencore in 2012 would now be worth £63k without re-investing the dividends. Its also worth putting into perspective the current period of copper market weakness - the first since the market bottomed following 6 years of price falls into Feb 2016: +73% - H1/2016 low - Q1/2018 -19% - Q1/2018 high - to today +40% - since H1/2016 low - to a price today that is still 70% below the inflation unadjusted peak of the last copper market cycle high. If like me, you strongly believe the strengthening copper market fundamentals and demand growth trend of 2%-4% annually over many decades, are highly likely to be the key factors to drive the copper price over the next 3-5 years of this new commodity market recovery stage - and 70 years of market data adds a lot of weight to this view - then history suggests that market weakness during the commodity market recovery stage should be given serious consideration as a potential opportunity to put new investment to work - as this has proved not only to be a winning strategy at CAML since the start of production(up 403% inc dividends) and from commencement of this latest commodity market cycle where it is up 76% to date(inc dividends) but, generally for commodity stocks during the much longer recovery phases of the previous three long term market cycles. Since markets are forward looking they will likely start pricing in the full impact of Grasberg's 2019/20 production cuts during Q4/2018 when the Trump/China trade war spat will probably be mostly in the rear view mirror, and the business media focus has moved on to the million barrel a day supply disruption to Iranian crude exports from US sanctions scheduled for implementation in early November. FWIW - Following an initial investment in near term copper producer/explorer Asia Mat in early 2016, I was underwater into early 2017. I used share price weakness to follow the Directors lead of taking ALL their fees in incentivised share options since 2015 to continue adding at prices up to 5 times my 2016 average price as the investment case strengthened. This is a strategy that served me well with investments in industrial metals, oil and the shipping sector during the 2000-2008 recovery stage of the previous shipping/commodity cycle. I refused to break a habit of an investment lifetime to short a quoted company during the 2008/10-2016 shipping /commodity cycle decline/death stage where prices fell heavily as new production/shipping overwhelmed the annual 2%-4% increase in demand. Considering that most quoted dry bulk and oil tanker ship owners like sector leader DryShips($7bn market cap in 2008) saw their market valuation drop by circa 99% between 2008 and 2016, that industrial metal heavyweights like Glencore lost 85% and saw its dividend suspended, and Royal Dutch Shell's valuation still dropped 50% despite maintaining its 7.5% dividend at the nadir - as in 1993-1999 the decline/death stages of shipping/commodity cycles once again proved a very reliable and rich vein to mine for those less principled to shorting like hedge funds that put a lot of money to work during 2010-2016 shorting shipping and commodity stocks. AIMHO/DYOR
kenmitch: bob. Mount Teide’s posts on CAML are superb and his investment methods are similar to mine. Constantly trading in and out of shares worked far less well for me (but good for my broker with regular dealing charges) than buying and holding, sometimes for many years, good quality shares. We’ll rarely time our buying exactly. I bought CAML a while ago at 176p and unless there is disappointing news am likely to continue to hold for years - or at least until general mining sector downturn .Mount Teide’s posts here explain why. The dividend at my buy price is 10% and this is another plus for long term hold ahead of trading. Dividends alone in time give big capital gains every year. All shares go up and down, and when newsflow is good dips are buying or top up opportunities. Current CAML share price dip could well prove to be a good entry price. There are quality shares I sold years ago when I used to trade more, that are now massively higher and some now pay an annual dividend higher than my share buy price! I.e in time these shares guarantee investment success. John Lee, the first ISA millionaire, has held some of his shares for ages, with some of his paying 100% or more (and still growing!)dividends every year. If I could live my investment life again I would do it his way, and forget trading, and except for small punts, speculation high risk sh*t or bust shares.
masurenguy: Good results and even better prospects going forward ! "2017 was a strong year for all of the base metals in CAML's portfolio, with the three metals averaging a price increase of 28%. Going forward into 2018, many industry commentators are expecting a challenging year for copper supply that could result in another positive 12 months for the copper price. In the zinc market, supply side challenges remain, while demand is expected to increase to over 15 million tonnes by 2019. The 2017 CAML share price closed at £3.06, which represents a 35% increase during the year, and reflected positive market sentiment following our Lynx Resources acquisition. We now move forward into 2018 as a larger and diversified base metals business, with low cost operations in two prospective jurisdictions. CAML has enjoyed an excellent 2017 and we look forward to continuing to build the Company's future in 2018." Nick Clarke, Chairman
bogdan branislov: IC Comment today: Always a good source of ideas to look through in detail the bargain shares portfolio. U and I Group is a good inclusion. U and I Group is certainly one of the top two non-speculative buys available in terms of potential upside. The other one was not included, the mighty Central Asia Metals. A main market listing is being considered for later this year, CAML is currently in AIM, the share price is about at the point where CAML would go straight into the FTSE 250. I can see why technical analysis would make Simon more comfortable with U and I than CAML. U and I is currently enjoying a near 2 year price break out as well as the shareholdings being dominated by large institutional holdings, who have significantly replaced impatient retail investors over the past 18 months. Whereas CAML has risen in price significantly already. As Peter Lynch pointed out though, sometimes the stock that has already risen in price is also the one to buy. CAML was highly profitable and a very large dividend payer even during the metal price slump of recent years. Such is CAML's still highly attractive valuation and low operating costs, that there is considerable downside protection even if metal prices slump. But warehouse stocks are at long term lows, production investment has slumped in recent years, with little additional capacity coming on stream. On the demand side, it could not be more bullish. CAML looks to be heading for a 2018 PE in the mid single figures. There is a lot of expert comment of the main BB and listen to the IC podcast with CAML's CEO - tell me why I am wrong here. Doug
bogdan branislov: MT - thanks again for that. What is your view on a take over happening? Not so much whether CAML is a likely target, because at this price it probably is, but more whether you think a takeover will be a good thing for its shareholders. I ask this because two of my previous holdings that were taken over, Kentz (c2014) and Ithaca Energy (2017), although very profitable holdings for me over the long term, were taken over at relatively disappointing premiums to the share price at the point of the bid. The niggle with both was that these companies were taken out at prices which to me were still only priced around half a fair value of their forward earnings. If CAML were to be taken over now, whilst a fair value could easily be twice the current price level, we as shareholders may only realise a 30% premium on the current stock price in the event of takeover, nice to have, but CAML is worth far more. The other side of the coin of course is that a company seen as a likely takeover target, based on valuation, tends to go up in price very rapidly. What are your thoughts on how investors would fare in the event of a bid, do you think an assumed 30% premium above the current share price, if the bid came shortly, is too pessimistic. Bogdan
mount teide: Why I'm happy with the Central Asia Metals acquisition hTTps:// If I’m being completely honest then I have to admit that I was somewhat annoyed when an RNS from Central Asia Metals (CAML) initially landed to say that trading in the shares had been temporarily suspended pending the acquisition of a large asset. That annoyance though was largely driven by a shorter term view, as shares in the company had been doing very well and the price was increasing steadily in the run up to the financial results, which were expected to be good and with yet another high yielding dividend to be paid. Alongside that copper was flying and had just topped the $3.10/lb level. My main worry was that not only would momentum be lost – I think the share price could well have tested the 300p area, given that it was trading at around 254p just prior to suspension – but also that the market might not like the acquisition, and given that it was going to be large enough to constitute a reverse takeover, it needed to be well received if the company was going to continue to do as well as it has been in recent years. Part of that worry also related to the fact that the board had always been very careful in the past – having returned far more via dividends than the initial IPO, a real rarity amongst AIM resource stocks – and had managed to build up a tidy sum of cash in the bank and with no debt, which could all be about to change, given the sort of amounts that it would need to be paying for an asset in order to trigger a reverse takeover. This week all was finally revealed, including details of the acquisition and how it was going to be financed, and as feared thus far the market hasn’t exactly warmed to the deal, with the share price having drifted back 10% or so to the current level of around 230p. But having taken a bit of time to consider all of the info, I am still happy to be holding shares here for the longer term – albeit I’d have preferred it if the price hadn’t dropped back – and given that the £137 million in equity financing for the deal was raised at 230p, and the way the market tends to work these days, the current share price level probably shouldn’t come as any sort of surprise. The company has just announced an interim dividend of 6.5p – payable on October 27 – which compares favourably to the 5.5p one which it paid the previous year, and taking that into account (the new shares don’t qualify for the dividend), the placing was carried out at a 7.8% discount to the share price prior to that. Central Asia is to acquire zinc and lead miner Lynx Resources for $402.5 million from owners Orion Co-investments and Fusion Capital, with that sum being made up of $153.5 million from the placing; $120 million senior debt facility at 4.75% plus LIBOR; $67 million in existing Lynx debt facility at 5% plus LIBOR; $50 million worth of shares to Orion via an equity subscription. Lynx Resources operates the SASA mine in Macedonia, and during 2016 produced over 22,500 tonnes of zinc and nearly 29,000 of lead, which was broadly in line with production figures over the past eight years or so, and with a mine life expectancy up until 2032, there is plenty more to come along with the potential to extend that. The mine is among the lower cost producers, at $0.39/lb for zinc and $0.29/lb for lead, and with zinc currently around $1.4/lb and lead at $1.12/lb, both have been performing quite strongly of late. Looking at the financials for Lynx, it generated revenue of $66.7 million for 2016, resulting in an operating profit of $33 million and a net profit of $26.1 million, so I suspect that Central Asia has paid close to the going market price for the acquisition. It is always hard to predict what commodity prices are going to do in the future, but the signs are quite bullish at the moment for both metals, with increased demand, especially in countries such as China, the US and India, and that would of course benefit the company. This has also made the company into one of the few diversified producers listed on the AIM market – although I would expect a main market listing moving forwards – and I believe that it has also reduced some of the risk which was associated with the company previously. Whilst there haven’t been any problems for it at its Kounrad copper operation in Kazakhstan, in these sort of countries you never quite know when things can change, especially when it comes to mining rights and laws, so some geographical diversity is a good thing I think. It has also previously been totally reliant on copper and specifically Kounrad – although the other recent acquisition at Shuak has plenty of potential – and this acquisition at least allows it to diversify the risk to other metals as well. It is still very early days and it remains to be seen how well the new business is integrated into the current one – assuming of course that the acquisition is approved at the EGM on October 11 – but given the way that the management has been running the business, I would expect it to do well longer term. The latest set of financials for the company, the interims up to June 30 2017, had been strong, with higher levels of production, EBITDA up 41% on the same period in 2016 at $24 million, and a net profit of a little over $15 million, plus cash in the bank having grown to $41.7 million. Should we see the share price dip any lower then I will be very tempted to add more, as not only is there plenty of potential for growth, but I would still expect a decent dividend to be paid, as per the policy of the management thus far when it comes to returning some of the profits to investors.
Central Asia Metals share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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