Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[1knocker] 19/5/2023 13:25

I have no idea. What I do know is that if I had waited to top up instead of getting in ahead of the ex div date, it would have saved me a packet! As it is, I need 3 dividends at the current rate even to get back to being all square on that purchase. When the current dividend arrives it will leave rather a sick taste in my mouth.

[melton john] 19/5/2023 10:12

The possibility of a placing to fund an acquisition has been raised and I wondered whether, in spite of reassurance at presentations that debt was the preferred option, "somebody knows something" was pulling down the price. It looks like weakness is purely related to the price of copper and read across from other producers in the following chart, although in the case of CAML dropping 25% from recent highs is overdone, especially as it is the cheapest producer. Just my thoughts and opinions, feel free to disagree.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[melton john] 18/5/2023 12:51

Thanks zho, I'd forgotten. It's worth a look, not just the Agm stuff but a very good presentation summarising the company's business and performance. One fact stuck in my mind they produce copper at $1400 a ton and market price is $8000 a ton. Also $60M cash and $90M FCF nearly half of which is paid in dividends, present yield of 10%.

[zho] 18/5/2023 09:31

AGM online now at

[meanreverter] 10/5/2023 09:22

The margins of the Kounrad operation are extraordinarily high, because the deposit is unique. It is unrealistic to expect that CAML could replicate it on comparable terms. Indeed, CAML settled for a lower (albeit still good) return on capital when it acquired Sasa. We should be pleased if it can match that deal.

If CAML cannot find an acquisition that betters the return on its own shares in the market, then it should return cash to shareholders and, as assets become exhausted, conduct an orderly wind-up of the company.

[the deacon] 10/5/2023 09:14

A tie up with Adriatic would be an interesting move.

[zangdook] 10/5/2023 08:46

I don't see AAZ directors being receptive to anything like that, and they control over 40% of the shares.

[jbravo2] 10/5/2023 08:27

I’d say it would have to be closer to 300p bozzy but the main problem is the lack of JORC’ed resource.
Once Garadagh and Xarxar are JORC’ed then I can see it. Not sure they’ll be able to borrow enough til then. Of course there’s an argument it’ll cost more then!

[johnrxx99] 10/5/2023 08:18

VISH65 - exactly my point.

[bozzy_s] 09/5/2023 18:45

1K, Zangdook, et al. If only there was a company just across the Caspian Sea, currently valued at £125m with how much JORC'd metal in the ground? Multi-billions of dollars at today's prices. Add on multi-billions of un-JORC'd metals. And the fact it's low-cost labour and energy in a mining-friendly jurisdiction.

If only an opportunity arose for CAML to buy all that metal, all those potential upgrades, for say $300m? Pick up $122m of mine equipment / assets / cash / shares in a Colombian copper explorer (!!), plus ~$10-$20 billion of metals in existing contract areas?

Good deal for everyone I'd reckon! $300m = 207p per AAZ share.

[return_of_the_apeman] 09/5/2023 15:39

They did take a long time to find sasa but tbf they did regularly state they were looking

I seem to remember not being too impressed with that purchase, the unknowns bothering me as they could have just run Kounrad into the dust and returned a stack of cash to investors. However I need not have worried.

[zangdook] 09/5/2023 13:09

I'm not sure saying "potential for an acquisition announcement to be released at anytime..." should be called ramping. I don't expect anything soon but it could happen. I don't believe the BoD are blowing hot air.

[vish65] 09/5/2023 12:25

Finding an acquisition for a company that is already in the lowest quartile for unit costs and is also as the FD says 'value acreditive ' is a big ask . Anything less will be dilutive to CAML and its shareholders . Patience is needed and I 'm not ruling anything out as the end game for CAML. In the meantime just take the dividends.

[johnrxx99] 09/5/2023 03:48

I've got a lot of holdings and without exception, part of the business plan is to invest where opportunities arise. Admittedly they tend to be quite large businesses but if you aint looking to grow, what's the point of management? If they just want to sit back and take the money they are not working for shareholder imo.

Having said that I have in the past invested here and I'm looking again. My comment was because I don't like it when someone posts "they are going to buy something" when there is no market evidence behind it. It is ramping.

[meanreverter] 08/5/2023 20:57

CAML has got used to being a two-site company, and probably wants to keep it that way. So my bet is that the next project will be acquired and brought on full stream before Kounrad expires.

[pol123] 08/5/2023 18:55

Not forgetting - Kounrad has 10yrs+ life and Sasa fcast resource until 2039. Hardly at a point of panic

[meanreverter] 08/5/2023 10:53

CAML had a choice: either wind up the company when the Kounrad stacks were exhausted, or bring in a new mine (Sasa), before that happened, to keep the company going. During the next decade, as Kounrad approaches exhaustion and Sasa is a few years from it, the company faces the same issue: wind up or make an acquisition. Given that the company wants to stay alive, it will lean strongly to the latter.

There is no rush, but it is wise to prepare well in advance. The longer the search is on for an acquisition, through the ups and downs of the mining cycle, the better chance there is of finding a good opportunity. However, they should not delay until the last minute, because then their hand will be forced, and the potential sellers know that.

[lauders] 08/5/2023 08:48

Not sure that is accurate john! I hold a few companies and of them all I believe that ONLY CAML have been saying they have, or actively are, looking for take-over targets or M&A activity. CAML have been vocal about it for a while and it is a matter of trusting the BOD or not. If you don't trust them, move on, would probably be a wise decision.

[johnrxx99] 08/5/2023 04:39

Companies always say they are looking for acquisitions. If they didn't large shareholders would leave.

So to say the company is looking for acquisitions because it said so is ramping.

[melton john] 06/5/2023 23:08

A month since the end of the tax year so anybody who sold at the top or sold on the way down to crystallise a profit or a loss can buy back in after the obligatory 30 days. A few of my shares are recovering at the same time, can't be just coincidence.

[pol123] 05/5/2023 17:25

pughman, not sure that is what they want. But should be a viable option

What we dont want is a deal at any cost. That said our BoD are very conservative and understand that the divi is sacrosanct, so should be an issue

At these prices Im all for a limited buy back

[pughman] 05/5/2023 16:57

The value of the metals in the ground at today's prices is circa $3bn. Rather than overpay for an acquisition, running down the life of the mines and returning the capital to shareholders should also be a consideration. They could comfortably pay out $75m(£60m) a year for the next 16 years.

[pol123] 05/5/2023 15:27

key for me is, buy a low cost producer or look for a leaching opportunity. Also what will happen to the divi if they by an early stage outfit?

Also expect no dilution

[lauders] 05/5/2023 13:17

Although they prefer Cu, the BOD have also stated that they would consider other metals like Zn and Pb (per Sasa), as well as others (not precious though) they don't mine yet. So, when, I assume they will one day, purchase another company, it will be very interesting to see which metal or metals they choose.