Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[kael] 29/3/2023 10:06

Impairment charge and no move on the dividend, which I think the market was expecting after no debt costs going forward provides the opportunity to mark this down. Even with static dividend this makes the price even more tempting for yield seekers however. This will wash itself out. Growth is a thorny issue in that searching an elusive bargain acquisition may take time and long term future projections into prices is needed - rare earth would be ideal from my pov in the current market cycle. Credit is tight and not favourable terms, asset values should reflect that...it's a waiting game.

[bluemango] 29/3/2023 08:41

Impairment charge for SASA results from a year end assessment giving a slight reduction in annual throughput over life of the mine (830,000 tonnes from 900,000) and an increase in the discount rate used to calculate net present value of future cash flows.

All under Income Statement heading, towards the end of the report.

What spooked the market, I expect, was the fact that although the interim dividend had increased from 8p to 10p, there might have been an expectation that the final dividend would at least match last year's 12p. In the end the total was the same as last year's 20p annual div.

[rimau1] 29/3/2023 08:40

Tag 57 - fair challenge but yes it is too simplified. I am a LTH at TKO and they recently bought out the minority holder of their producing copper mine for less than book value. Granted this is in Canada but CAMl should spread their wings.

[dougmachin] 29/3/2023 08:26

I reckon the reduced cash flow.

It seems that unless results (for anything) are smashing it out the park, there's a mark down.

Can anyone please shed some light on the non-cash impairment charge. Thanks.

[frazboy] 29/3/2023 08:08

So what spooked the market? The non-cash impairment charge? Reduced free cash flow flow? The latter, surely to be expected. Only glanced at the results but didn't see much detail on the former.

[tag57] 29/3/2023 07:46

Rimau1 if you had a developing copper mine in today’s market, with the expectations for future pricing of copper over the next decade plus, would you sell up cheaply because of increasing costs? I know I wouldn’t. I know this oversimplifies things but I can appreciate the difficulties they are probably finding as they look at their next major investment.

[dougmachin] 29/3/2023 07:29

spoole5 - but the divi's real !!

Get more in the 230's is my view. Thought that boat had sailed.

Especially as the 187 mill has been fully repaid.

[bluemango] 29/3/2023 07:17

8.51% yield with demand for copper only likely to increase.

I'll settle for that. Firm hold.

[the count of monte_cristo] 29/3/2023 07:13

By the time they will find a project the prices will have risen and they will be paying more.

[rimau1] 29/3/2023 07:10

CAML has been needing to buy growth for the past 2 years, management maybe too prudent but that might be harsh. 17 NDA’s signed and only 2 site visits feels limp. The positive is that it should be easier to acquire in 2023 given rising input costs. No position.

[spoole5] 29/3/2023 07:07

That's the divi gone in the first 5 mins!

[dougmachin] 29/3/2023 06:40

Surely this is one of the best bits:

Strong balance sheet

-- Cash in the bank as at 31.12.2022 of $60.6 million (2021: $59.2million)
-- Fully repaid $187.0 million corporate debt facility
-- Non-cash impairment charge for Sasa of $55.1 million

[dougmachin] 29/3/2023 06:36

"Following this strong performance, we propose a 10 pence per share final dividend, resulting in a full year dividend of 20 pence per share, comparable with 2021. The full year dividend represents 47% of our 2022 FCF and is in line with our stated policy of 30% to 50% of FCF.

[cthompso] 29/3/2023 06:26

Rock solid results as normal, especially given the swings in energy prices/inflation that have impacted others.Looking forward to learning more on the call.

[spoole5] 29/3/2023 06:05

10p final divi. Disappointing.

[tag57] 28/3/2023 22:11

On their site it says 9am?

[leopoldalcox] 28/3/2023 21:44

Will be interesting, particularly costs at Sasa. I wonder what the plan is long term. The copper is running out and an acquisition must be on the agenda

[zho] 28/3/2023 12:22

FY results tomorrow.

Live webcast at 9.30.

Presentation on Investor Meet Company at 3pm: questions can be submitted during the presentation.

Proactive presentation from 5.45pm on Thursday 30th.

[dougmachin] 27/3/2023 08:23

Happy to keep topping up at these levels.

Bulk up the holding before it heads back up.

[cshfool1] 24/3/2023 09:57

todays FT reports possible copper price surge via Trafigura

[bluemango] 23/3/2023 17:50

Another interesting piece on projected copper demand and pricing, published yesterday:

[cshfool1] 23/3/2023 15:07

The guts of my reply to TMF below.

I'm expecting a 12p - 14p final dividend for 2022 to be declared at the 29th March 2023 CAML results, more likely 12p - and no cuts, for a yield (year 2022) of 10p int + 12p fin = 22p/255p share price = 8.6%

CAML usually base their dividends on a payout of 30-50% of Free Cash Flow (FCF), and are currently net cash, ie no debt having fully paid off the Traxys loan to buy the Sasa mine after the placing a few years ago. Since first half FCF was 25p/share, (40% FCF= 10p previously) up to 12.5p seems believable on a pro rata basis as thats 50% of FCF, excluding the improved Copper output, or perhaps a little more.

That's based on the latest production results (Jan 10, 2023 RNS) which upgraded Copper cathode output to slightly ahead of previous guidance at Kounrad and with a background of strong commodities pricing. CAML seems to be a reasonably popular share among the "Portfolio Clinics" in Investors Chronicle but perhaps not Institutions.

Possibly it might be 12p + a commitment to shareholder return via buyback, for a measly 8.6% cash yield, (year 2022) covered twice by cash flow.

csh

[1knocker] 23/3/2023 13:11

Bozzy, if you are looking at DEC, scroll back over the ADVFN board. The business model takes a little work to understand, and there is some very good explanatory stuff on the bb if you go back a bit. The statutory accounts will lead you up the garden path, as GAPP leads to some pretty weird numbers, particularly in relation to the hedging. Free cash flow seems to me to be the element to focus on. Hold in a SIPP if you can, as that avoids a 15% withholding tax on the dividends.

[zangdook] 23/3/2023 12:09

That just confirms my view of the Fool. He seems to be ignoring all the actual dividend information we have and trying to guess what might happen in 2024 based on someone else's guess about what might happen in 2023. Nothing to do with reality and quite useless as an introduction of the company to new investors.