Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[rimau1] 29/3/2023 08:10

CAML has been needing to buy growth for the past 2 years, management maybe too prudent but that might be harsh. 17 NDA’s signed and only 2 site visits feels limp. The positive is that it should be easier to acquire in 2023 given rising input costs. No position.

[spoole5] 29/3/2023 08:07

That's the divi gone in the first 5 mins!

[dougmachin] 29/3/2023 07:40

Surely this is one of the best bits:

Strong balance sheet

-- Cash in the bank as at 31.12.2022 of $60.6 million (2021: $59.2million)
-- Fully repaid $187.0 million corporate debt facility
-- Non-cash impairment charge for Sasa of $55.1 million

[dougmachin] 29/3/2023 07:36

"Following this strong performance, we propose a 10 pence per share final dividend, resulting in a full year dividend of 20 pence per share, comparable with 2021. The full year dividend represents 47% of our 2022 FCF and is in line with our stated policy of 30% to 50% of FCF.

[cthompso] 29/3/2023 07:26

Rock solid results as normal, especially given the swings in energy prices/inflation that have impacted others.Looking forward to learning more on the call.

[spoole5] 29/3/2023 07:05

10p final divi. Disappointing.

[tag57] 28/3/2023 23:11

On their site it says 9am?

[leopoldalcox] 28/3/2023 22:44

Will be interesting, particularly costs at Sasa. I wonder what the plan is long term. The copper is running out and an acquisition must be on the agenda

[zho] 28/3/2023 13:22

FY results tomorrow.

Live webcast at 9.30.

Presentation on Investor Meet Company at 3pm: questions can be submitted during the presentation.

Proactive presentation from 5.45pm on Thursday 30th.

[dougmachin] 27/3/2023 09:23

Happy to keep topping up at these levels.

Bulk up the holding before it heads back up.

[cshfool1] 24/3/2023 09:57

todays FT reports possible copper price surge via Trafigura

[bluemango] 23/3/2023 17:50

Another interesting piece on projected copper demand and pricing, published yesterday:

[cshfool1] 23/3/2023 15:07

The guts of my reply to TMF below.

I'm expecting a 12p - 14p final dividend for 2022 to be declared at the 29th March 2023 CAML results, more likely 12p - and no cuts, for a yield (year 2022) of 10p int + 12p fin = 22p/255p share price = 8.6%

CAML usually base their dividends on a payout of 30-50% of Free Cash Flow (FCF), and are currently net cash, ie no debt having fully paid off the Traxys loan to buy the Sasa mine after the placing a few years ago. Since first half FCF was 25p/share, (40% FCF= 10p previously) up to 12.5p seems believable on a pro rata basis as thats 50% of FCF, excluding the improved Copper output, or perhaps a little more.

That's based on the latest production results (Jan 10, 2023 RNS) which upgraded Copper cathode output to slightly ahead of previous guidance at Kounrad and with a background of strong commodities pricing. CAML seems to be a reasonably popular share among the "Portfolio Clinics" in Investors Chronicle but perhaps not Institutions.

Possibly it might be 12p + a commitment to shareholder return via buyback, for a measly 8.6% cash yield, (year 2022) covered twice by cash flow.

csh

[1knocker] 23/3/2023 13:11

Bozzy, if you are looking at DEC, scroll back over the ADVFN board. The business model takes a little work to understand, and there is some very good explanatory stuff on the bb if you go back a bit. The statutory accounts will lead you up the garden path, as GAPP leads to some pretty weird numbers, particularly in relation to the hedging. Free cash flow seems to me to be the element to focus on. Hold in a SIPP if you can, as that avoids a 15% withholding tax on the dividends.

[zangdook] 23/3/2023 12:09

That just confirms my view of the Fool. He seems to be ignoring all the actual dividend information we have and trying to guess what might happen in 2024 based on someone else's guess about what might happen in 2023. Nothing to do with reality and quite useless as an introduction of the company to new investors.

[1knocker] 22/3/2023 13:06

PS Bozzy, I hope you got out of FXPO. It defied gravity for a surprisingly long time, and was a decent trading share for some time following the invasion, but I have seen no joy in getting back in since my last sale in the 160s. Those ho sold as the war clouds loomed and got back inches afterwards, picked up a couple of dividends and traded it for a bit did well. Those who simply held must have taken a very cold bath.

[1knocker] 22/3/2023 10:07

Bozzy, I hope you are right, as I topped up recently (a further 35% at 248).

TGA is a great company, in a sector which is booming (more coal mined and burned worldwide last year than in any year in the entire history of the world) but finds it difficult to raise money from lenders polishing their ESG credentials. That raises barriers to production expansion in the sector which in time would depress the coal price. The fly in the ointment is the woeful state of the South African railways and ports TGA has to rely upon to move the coal it mines. I liked TGA's recent purchase of an Australian mine. A sensible diversification into a mining friendly jurisdiction where the infrastructure is not coming apart at the seams!

Have a look at DEC too. If it is decent bet (and as it is my largest holding, I at any rate believe it is) the present is the best buying opportunity for years.

[bozzy_s] 22/3/2023 01:08

Hoping for 14-16p. Interim was up from 8 to 10. Final should therefore hopefully be lifted from 12.

If it's a modest 14p, that gives a full-year yield of 9.2%, with the possibility of a raise next year.

Edit: Hi 1knocker! We meet up on another very high yielding share! Hopefully this doesn't go the same way as FXPO. The other high yielder I have is GKP, which is paying a ridiculous 41.5% ..... 73p in dividends received between 6th Apr 22 and 5th Apr 23.

I think you mentioned Thungela somewhere. Haven't bought yet, but they're probably next on my shopping list. Similar ridiculous dividend yield and P/E ratio to GKP. Both would be decent value at quadruple the price.

[cshfool1] 21/3/2023 16:18

Anyone have any thoughts about a possible estimate of the Final Dividend?

csh

[kael] 20/3/2023 16:11

Given the amount of coordinated printing going on, I imagine any major fails are going to be bailed out regardless.

[1knocker] 20/3/2023 13:32

There is either a lot of very good merchandise on the 'Sale' rack at present, or something very nasty is coming down the pike. Important to check the labels, and avoid the stuff like Credit Suisse marked 'discontinued line'.