Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[pughman] 27/12/2024 12:17

The dollar appreciation against the tenge/denar has knocked a couple of million off the cost base. With SASA capex set to fall dramatically, there is room for a 10% buyback. I am wary of acquisitions, as the share price shows SASA has been a non event. Belated Happy Xmas to the doughnut who ticks down every post.

[bo doodak] 27/12/2024 11:13

I didn't quite get that same feel on the div. The answer GF gave to Sarah was quite nuanced - committed to 10%, but is based on there being no acquisition.

As the market knows they are looking for a transformational acquisition, which will be funded partly by an equity raise, and GF talked about ‘’limiting dilution’̵7; for shareholders, this is probably impacting the share price

They've been very disciplined on not rushing into anything, and long may that approach continue, but the leadership change does bring its own risks.

[vish65] 27/12/2024 10:27

Good analysis and I see no reason not to maintain the dividend either. Pity the share price chart or the supposed 'seller' are less optimistic ? The run down in Kounrad and inability to clearly define growth ( so far) continues to hang over the share. But I'm still happy to receive the div each year

[dougmachin] 27/12/2024 10:23

Well worth watching this (again) too, if you haven't already. Latest presentation from 18th November 2024.



With the presentation slides here:
TRANSITIONING FOR THE FUTURE - Q4 2024 CORPORATE PRESENTATION


Nothing new in the slides, but from the presentation, a couple of key takeaways:

[1] Even though above the 30-50% FCF dividend policy, Gavin Ferrar talked about committed to a 10% yield for the dividend. Sarah (from proactive) even questioned increasing the dividend due to having so much cash in the bank. I'm increasingly hopeful for the long-term maintenance of a yearly divi of 18p (or above).

[2] A great takeaway was about Sasa returning to 2021 throughput due to the capital projects being completed at Sasa. That sounds very encouraging.

[fuji99] 27/12/2024 09:52

Dougmachin: Thanks a lot for your great work and your time.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

[dougmachin] 26/12/2024 06:20

HAPPY CHRISTMAS!
Some Boxing Day analysis, looking at 2024 Vs 2023.
Trying to predict the maintenance (likelihood) of the 2024 H2 9p dividend...

2023 H1 cash generated = 42.7m
2024 H1 cash generated = 42.4m

This would factor in:
[1] Amount produced
[2] Prices of metals
[3] Cost of production

So for H1 comparison, it’s the same.
From that, the dividend was also the same at 9p.

Now to look at H2 comparison of 2023 Vs 2024.

Cash in the bank:
2022 start = 59.2m
2022 end = 60.6m
2023 H1 start = 60.6m
2023 H1 end = 50.6m (paid forward tax)
2023 H2 start = 50.6m
2023 H2 end = 57.2m
2024 H1 start = 57.2m
2024 H1 end = 56.3m
2024 H2 start = 56.3m
2024 H2 end = ???m

My view is, it would be good to get back above 60 million cash in the bank.
Whilst keeping the 9p dividend for 2024 H2.

So ASSUMING (will address this later) CAML can generate the same amount of cash in 2024 H2, compared to 2023 H2. This means generating 51.5m cash.

2024 H2 (assumptions)
Cash generated = +51.5m
Dividends @ 9p = -21.4m
Interest received = +1.2m
Income tax = -9.0m
CAPEX = -15.2m (informed in H1 presentation, giving 23.5m for the year)
This gives final cash of 63.4m = GREAT !!

For “Cash generated of 51.5m”. Can this be achieved in 2024 H2 (same as 2023 H2)?
[1] Amount produced (compare 2024 vs 2023)
For H1 comparison (comparing 2024 vs 2023):
Cu = -1.6%
Zn = -7.7%
Pb = -6.3%

For Q3 comparison (comparing 2024 vs 2023)
Cu = -0.6%
Zn = -7.0%
Pb = -2.5%
So, production is getting better in Q3 compared to H1.
Also, this is improving / maintaining into Q4.
And the head grades are also improving in Q3 / maintaining into Q4 of 2024.

Point is, H2 is looking better than H1, when comparing back to 2023 vs 2024.

[2] Prices of metals
H1 actual price change for CAML from H1 2023 to H1 2024
Cu = +6.4%
Zn = -0.7%
Pb = +3.0%
With these price increases, it offset the production decreases.

Looking at statista website, this gives the following for H1 2023 to H1 2024:
Cu = +4.5%
Zn = -7.0%
Pb = -0.4%
So based on that CAML, did well in H1 2024 compared to H1 2023.
Statista takes day 1 of each month as the price.

Looking at statista website again, this gives the following for H2 2023 to H2 2024:
Cu = +11.7%
Zn = +17.1%
Pb = -5.6%
Which is fantastic overall.

Looking at graphs of H2 2023 to H2 2024, these %ages are in the right range, certainly in the correct direction (positive / negative).

[3] Cost of production
This went up in 2024 H1. Should stabilise for 2024 H2…?
Inflation is coming down (reagents / wages).
The solar plant will help.

CONCLUSIONS:
H2 production is better than H1 for 2024 (for each time period compared to 2023).
Metal prices are better in H2 than H1 for 2024 (again compared to 2023).

So, yes, I think that if 2023 H2 generated 51.5m cash, then 2024 H2 can generate (at least) 51.5m cash. Subtract the CAPEX and tax costs.

This gives:
The capacity to pay 9p dividend in 2024 H2
For the total cash in the bank to go above 60 million

LONG TERM:
If Sasa CAPEX is (finally) finished, then that releases another 15-18 million / year to add to the “cash in the bank”. (I removed the sustaining capital already).

Price of Cu - this will be interesting to watch. Of course, I’m bullish on this. Really hoping that it will remain above 9,000 USD/ton and proceed higher.

Price of Zn - Not too sure about Zn, hopefully will remain at least the same. Am looking into factors affecting Zn prices.

Price of Pb - Unfortunately, will probably go down, but again hopefully, not by too much.

I’m certainly watching these metal prices with interest.

Also, of course, are future possibilities in Kazakhstan and Scotland.

[dougmachin] 23/12/2024 11:06

Cu prices in 2024 H1 and H2 higher than both 2023 and 2022.

Zn prices in 2024 higher than 2023.

Pb prices in 2024 slightly lower than 2023.

Surely, the 9p dividend will be maintained for 2024 H2... (surely!)

Also, are the main Sasa CAPEX expenses now done? To maintain the LOM to 2039.

Cu hopefully still on the ascendancy over the next 10 years for Kounrad.

[garycook] 20/12/2024 23:08

Added at 152.20p

[fuji99] 20/12/2024 12:03

Cheers Tonytyke.
IMO CAML is a must add at the early stage of the lowest share price for anyone wanting to rip the benefits of both, the dividend and the share price recovery.
This will probably be the winner for 2025 as geopolitical tensions may ease and China working hard to stimulate its faultering economy (as is Europe, Germany and France in particular).
Copper demand for China EV's and infrastructure will be the dominating factor for 2025.
So I expect mining stocks to perform well as they were dreadful in 2024 (unstable world, wars and sinking China economy).

[tonytyke2] 20/12/2024 10:25

Agreed fuji99, share price now looks to be near a 4.5 year low, obviously there is going to be no need for copper production in the future...Ha HaJust checked it passes 4 long screens of Stocko, 3 value and 1 income. Sharescope highlighting today PE 6.9 and Yield 12.6%. Consensus target price indicated of 243p, rating Outperform.Just trying to free up further funds to add here, hopefully we will see a share price bounce soon. Good luck all with your investments here.

[fuji99] 20/12/2024 09:20

Agree and this is one stock to have in any diversified portfolio.
The yield istself is the big plus.
Say owning around 10.000 shares will yield almost £2000 per year
which is far better than any bank or building society.
Any additional rise in the share price is cherry on the cake.
So Just accumulate and collect the dividends for a start.

[dougmachin] 20/12/2024 08:09

Not me. People were chasing this up to 230p not too long ago. And 290p in 2023.

I got some more.

[hericsaba] 20/12/2024 08:08

Copper, Zinc and Lead price also dropped 5-7% in the last 2 weeks, I guess it explained most.

[aishah] 20/12/2024 06:25

Who is selling and why?

[tonytyke2] 19/12/2024 16:35

Yep, added a few more this afternoon, must be around a 12% yield now.

[fuji99] 19/12/2024 14:46

Interesting entry point as it reached its lower base (around 152p) today.

[maverick247] 16/12/2024 09:29

It's a blog article on CAML mate

[dougmachin] 16/12/2024 08:56

FROM THE LINK -

Why Central Asia Metals Could Be a Hidden Gem for Investors

When it comes to investing, it’s not always the big, flashy names that deliver the best returns. Sometimes, the quieter, more overlooked players offer the most interesting opportunities. One such name to keep on your radar? Central Asia Metals (CAML), especially as its pulled back to year lows and not much higher than its 5 year low!

If you’re a retail investor looking to add a little diversity to your portfolio, here’s why this small-cap company might be worth a closer look.

What Does Central Asia Metals Do?

Central Asia Metals is a UK-listed mining company with operations in Kazakhstan and North Macedonia. They’re focused on extracting three key commodities: copper, zinc and lead. These metals are essential for modern industry, especially as the world transitions to greener technologies. Copper, for example, is vital for electric vehicle production and renewable energy infrastructure, while zinc plays a critical role in construction and battery technology.

Think of Central Asia Metals as a company that profits from the backbone of the green revolution—without the hype attached to some bigger players.

...

[xamf] 16/12/2024 08:37

Maverick247 - Could you explain your hyperlink to give others confidence to click on it.

[maverick247] 13/12/2024 14:01

HTTPS://smallcappix.com/blogdetail?id=54

[smackeraim] 03/12/2024 08:39

Copper price is trying to climb back up to the drop on Trump winning.

[smackeraim] 02/12/2024 12:02

Heading higher

[tricky red] 28/11/2024 09:14

Rock solid company paying a great dividend. Price is languishing from recent highs of 230p approx but has every potential to reverse.

[smackeraim] 27/11/2024 09:25

Still a good play.. Regarding growth, Ferrar outlined the company's search for transformative acquisitions while maintaining a robust balance sheet with $56.3 million in cash and no debt.https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1060852/central-asia-metals-low-cost-copper-and-zinc-operations-one2one-investor-forum-1060852.html