Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Central Asia Metals LSE:CAML London Ordinary Share GB00B67KBV28 ORD USD0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -4.00p -1.71% 230.00p 230.50p 231.00p 238.00p 230.50p 235.50p 467,475 16:35:13
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 75.9 36.8 21.5 10.3 405.95

Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1926 to 1949 of 1950 messages
Chat Pages: 78  77  76  75  74  73  72  71  70  69  68  67  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
22/7/2018
02:06
Thank you for all the dividend related replies provided. Pretty much align with my thoughts although seems I was off on the cover as that is what I found quoted online. Will see if I can join you all in CAML this week. Since this is part of a QROPS policy and I have to go through two parties to make any deals it isn't quite as easy as just buying in my own perosnal account. That is why I prefer to make the purchases long term. Less hassle that way!
lauders
22/7/2018
00:18
The charts do not say this, in fact the chart tells you nothing, if you could tell what charts were telling you you would make money from charting, which would be highly unusual. As Peter Lynch would say, if CAML was a buy at £3.39, why are you a seller at £2.30. Have the fundamentals changed both for CAML and for copper over the longer term? No they have not. The fundamental story and outlook is unchanged for CAML. I am down close to £100k now. Do I lose sleep over it? No. Why not? Because I am up c£1.2M over the past 9 years. The most important action in those gains is when to hold and when to sell. If the underlying buy case was no longer intact, I would sell without hesitation. But when events that will not affect the company's outlook going forward push the price down, thereby concentrating up the value in the holding to an even greater extent, it is imperative to be able to sit tight. To win big in investing you need the capacity to both be right and to sit tight when all the evidence points to your being right. To exit a compelling case just because of what the 'charts are telling you' is simply an individuals acknowledgement that they do not have the capacity to sit tight, most would be investors do not. A lot of good and useful info comes through this board, always appreciated, I am a regular reader. Best, Bogdan
bogdan branislov
22/7/2018
00:17
spawny100 - you may well be right - although, as a high conviction long term investor i'm more interested in where the valuation is likely to be in 3-5 years than 3-5 months. When considering that timeframe and the sector fundamentals i view the current share price as offering exceptional value. The copper price was circa $2.50 last spring/summer when the share price briefly touched 205p - a level where circa 15% of global production would again be unprofitable as the sector approaches a near half decade deficit forecast. As posted at the time, i tripled my holding at 207p last June/July(which has since earned a 7.9% dividend), and would likely sell down some other holdings to add further here were the market to present us with another opportunity at/close to that level. AIMHO/DYOR
mount teide
21/7/2018
23:02
Appreciate your highly informative posts Mt Teide but the charts to me say that sure as eggs is eggs this will go back to £2 now. As per previous poster I'm on the sidelines for now.
spawny100
21/7/2018
22:24
BMO Capital Markets said in a new report "at the current price as much as 10% of global copper production is now unprofitable" - which at least in the short term could see a continuation of the decade low capital investment level of the past 5 years. BMO expect the amount of copper needed for electrification combined with the slow build of new mine supply will lead to a widening of the supply gap as we enter the next decade that could continue to grow beyond 2025. "While electric vehicles dominate growth conversations in metals and mining, renewable energy is significantly more important for copper, and expectations of solar and wind installations are continuing to increase. Globally, the number of solar and wind facilities is expected to grow 10-14% through 2025 (and at around 5-7% CAGR through 2040 thereafter)," Solar is expected to add 2.5 million tonnes per annum to global demand by 2025 and wind 1.85Mtpa, and carmakers are forecast to need an extra 1.5Mtpa by then. BMO analysts also forecast a 2025-2030 supply gap of at least 5 million tonnes per annum, but say prices should spike next year as the lack of new production bites. "The current and highly probable copper pipeline is at the lowest level we have seen this century, both in terms of the number of projects and capacity,". BMO Capital Markets upped its long-term copper price 7% to US$3.25 per pound after running the numbers on renewable energy and electric vehicle demand.
mount teide
21/7/2018
20:06
Well I sold my CAML on Friday and took the hit, I am not prepared to tolerate any further losses here. Losses are not a big deal really as I didn’t have a large holding, but then again I’m never happy selling at a loss. I suspect that in the short term it might well fall further. Not sure if it’s the trade war, copper price fall or short selling or some combination of all of those. I note that all commodity stocks have taken s hit lately to some extent, GLEN down 10%, ANTO down 7% etc. I still think that CAML looks a good long term prospect. It has good earnings, solid mining assets, good dividends well covered by earnings etc. BUT it is a small company with only about 1000 employees and quite a lot of debt since the purchase of the Sasa mine last year. Debt repayments look to be well covered by earnings, but any time you have high debt (~£150M) in a small company there is always a significant risk I think. And AIM stocks are notoriously fickle !. I have recently seen an estimate of the value of CAML at 296 a share, so at 230 that’s a substantial discount of 22% right now. But that 296 figure is a lot less than the mid 450s I have heard speculated about on this board. Of course the shares will probably fly now I’ve sold out. I confess I would be interested in buying back in if they fall closer to 200, which TBH I don’t see as out of the question frankly given the way things are going. And no way I want to hold for such a journey…. Anyway GLA holders. I’m out for now….
bob_rjp
21/7/2018
14:45
From the 2018 Annual report - produced after the 16th Nov. 2018 QD research note of course. "Both Kounrad and Sasa are expected to be highly cash generative and should enable the Company to remain one of the leading dividend payers in the sector. From 2018, the CAML dividend policy is to return to shareholders a target range of between 30% and 50% of free cash flow, defined as net cash generated from operating activities less capital expenditure. While we have made changes to our dividend policy, we believe that this policy, coupled with the profitable nature of our two operations, should ensure that our shareholders continue to receive attractive dividends from us." So, what dividend should be forecast....under the changed, slightly apologetic perhaps, policy? Well from the AR 2017 the latest CAML "Net cash generated from operating activities" -Nicks phrase, (ie after interest paid and corporate income tax paid) was $46m, SASA 2 months + Kounrad (page 66 AR, line 4) and for 2016 35.5m (Kounrad only). Lets pro-rata it up (is that fair?) assuming the 2 months from SASA generated the year on year NCFOps difference of $10.4m (we know from Nick/AR it was about 14m EBITDA from SASA so this cash flow seems believable) (ie static Kounrad NCF output) so giving a group NCF from ops of $98.2m. (ie 6 x 2months $10.4m SASA + $35.5m Kounrad)=$98.2m. Lets use the QD forecast capex of $12.5m (?) pg 39, so net cash from ops - capex = 98.2-12.5 = $85.7m NetFCF for investors as per annual report excerpt defn above. Now take a mid value (30%-50%) of 40% available for investors = 0.4 x $85.7m = $34.3m/176m shares...gives $0.19 about (1.3 dollars/£) or 15p div, a small trim wrt the 16.5p paid this time. FWIW 16.5p div, or 17.9p div (QD 2018 forecast dividend) would still be within the 30-50% upper range of NCFops so both might also be feasible (up to 18.7p div would be payable at max 50%). So a good div looks there or thereabouts to me and all well covered within the new NetFCFops CAML board guidelines. Of course it depends on what you assume for the forecast NCFops in particular and the capex. Anyway just my uneducated doodlings -other thoughts welcome. Where does that leave the forecast dividend? Hard to say really but 15-17.9p looks well affordable to me, I'd be tempted to go for 17.5p? well covered by NCFops based on above hacked assumptions - mainly 2018 NCFops of 98.3m and Capex of 12.5m. also reminder - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXqlMD9enJ8 a hint from this is perhaps that the div will be at least maintained (ie "not going backwards")- thoughts? csh NB I've ignored Copper/Zinc/lead prices and mine metal production changes of course as it all seems about on target.
cshfool1
21/7/2018
12:36
I've been invested here for a few years now, and I rate this as the best run company I've had in my portfolio. I've seen this price action before, when it rose from my initial entry point of 145p up to just over 180p, and I carried on buying at 151p, 170p and 182p. It then drifted down to 140p and I was making a loss and couldn't understand why - there was loads of cash and the dividends were great. It didn't dwell very long at 140p before the long and relentless climb to 249p when it had another blip for about six months. This share seems to do that - but then it goes on another relentless climb - last time from 207p to 337p. I didn't have a massive investment - altogether about £4,500 cost, and in just under 3 years that has yielded £853 dividends, so I'm very happy with this company. I top-sliced a few when the value went over 10% of my portfolio cost, but now it's dropped to 5.6%. If I had spare cash now I would be loading up at these prices, as I'd love to get this back up to 10% of my portfolio. Obviously don't take my word for it, and DYOR etc, but my experience here has been a good one and I think this is an excellent entry point given the revenues due from the new lead/zinc operation and the track record CAML has for looking after its shareholders.
speccy1
21/7/2018
07:20
Lauders. I think that the dividend cover figure that you have quoted is based on last years earnings. That is the additional shares issued for the reverse takeover are factored in, but only a couple of months of the post acquisition additional revenues and profits. This obviously distorts the apparent dividend cover downwards. The post acquisition earnings for the current year will result in a much higher dividend cover. Any other views on this? Bogdan
bogdan branislov
21/7/2018
01:23
I am now waiting for some funds to be credited to my account and have been following CAML for a while. If it can stay at these levels or go a little lower in the short term it will be a perfect entry point for me. We shall see whether I can enter at a good price. With a good yield and dividend cover of around 1.76 and a history of paying and increasing its dividends I hope I will be a fellow shareholder in the very near future. Anyone see any reason why the dividend is not safe or maintainable please? My main reason for buying will be income but expect growth to come over several years too.
lauders
21/7/2018
00:55
Kael - the Sept/October 2017 placing to purchase SASA was at 230p - the management did't put out a statement to explain why the share price shortly after completion rose in tandem with a rising copper price to circa 330p, so why would they put out a statement if the share price returns back to the placing price with a falling copper price? The only thing that has change since last October is that the price of copper has risen from circa 275p to 330p and back to circa 275p today - little else has changed. Kaz Minerals has experienced a near identical percentage rise and fall with the copper price over the same period. The average price of copper, lead and zinc during 2018 to date suggests that even if the current H2 average pricing were to be maintained until year end - CAML would still generate a 2018 result ahead of the Quoted Data EBITDA estimate of $138m and the circa 18p dividend estimate. If equity prices could be relied upon to always be “right”, then market bubbles and stock market collapses would never occur. But they do, indicating that market prices are not always right. The share price rise and fall over the last 9 months has not been characterised by high transaction volumes on the way up or down and there has not been a single notifiable change in holdings reported by the Institutional Investors since re-admission last November. Shell's share price bottomed at circa £14 with the price of oil in early 2016 - it then had a dividend yield of circa 8% and PER of 6.5. The near doubling of the oil price since has seen Shell's share price nearly double and the PER rise to circa 15 with a 5.5%+ yield. Other than that little else has changed with the business during the last two years. AIMHO/DYOR
mount teide
20/7/2018
23:27
It's bs. Whilst I understand the current climate. Doing nothing just reeks of fear. The management should make a statement. Unless of course there is more than meets the eye here. The yield means nothing when the share price has fallen over 25 % from recent highs. Obvs the directors don't see value here, where are their purchases. It's cl at there are ulterior things going on, what they are time will tell us.
kael
20/7/2018
20:25
2018 Copper, Lead and Zinc Average Prices Copper $2.81 - Quoted Data CAML 2018 Model $2.86 - H2/2018 Average (+1.7% to QD Model) $3.11 - 2018 Average year to date (+10.6%) Production is on target to achieve 13,750t - 14,000t against Quoted Data model forecast of 13,150t LME Copper Stocks are 58% down from the 5 year peak and are back close to the 5 year low. Lead $1.02 - H2/2018 Average (-1.9% to QD Model) $1.04 - QD CAML 2018 Model $1.11 - 2018 Average year to date (+6.7%) Production was 2% above 2017 Actual/QD Model in H1/2018 LME Lead stocks are 47% down from the 5 year peak and close to the 5 year low. Zinc $1.23 - H2/2018 Average (-16.3% below QD Model) $1.47 - 2018 Average year to date (-1.3%) $1.49 - QD CAML 2018 Model Production was 2% below 2017 Actual/QD Model in H1/2018 LME stocks are 75% down from the 5 year high and close to the 5 year low. If 2018 year to date average pricing is maintained through to year end 2018, Quoted Data's model would generate circa $12.16m of additional revenue/profit - broken down as: Copp +$8.69m - model assumes $2.81/lb - 2018 average ytd price $3.11/lb Lead +$4.47m - model assumes $1.04/lb - 2018 average ytd price $1.11/lb Zinc -$1.00m - model assumes $1.49/lb - 2018 average ytd price $1.47/lb In addition the QD model conservatively assumes 13,150 tonnes of Copper production in 2018. CAML management has forecast 13,000t to 14,000t for 2018. A 13,500t mid range performance would generate an additional $2.4m of EBITDA, while a top end 14,000t performance would see an additional $5.9m. Consequently, at 2018 average metal pricing to date, QD's model with a 13,500t performance from Kounrad in 2018, would generate EBITDA of $153.5m, while a similar Kounrad performance to 2017 of circa 14,000 tonnes would result in EBITDA of $157.0m(up 139% compared to 2017 actual) EBITDA of circa $157.0m would put EPS up from QD's 2018 forecast of 51.8c(37.5p) to circa 57.2c(43.75p) giving a forward PER of 5.26. AIMHO/DYOR
mount teide
20/7/2018
18:14
Copper up 2.1%, caml down 1.7%!
coxsmn
20/7/2018
17:21
Yeah what's it loss in recent months - 30%. That's an awful lot of years divis to break even now
davr0s
20/7/2018
17:13
Still yielding less than Vodafone and both have rapidly falling share prices which makes the yield redundant.
andyj
20/7/2018
08:27
At 238p with a 16.5p dividend, this is around 7% yield! Must be one of the safest 7% I know.
melody9999
19/7/2018
22:40
Longer term view,https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-18/prepare-for-copper-on-steroids-as-trump-slump-belies-shortage
coxsmn
19/7/2018
21:54
M, agree the share price is a nonsense at the moment but happens sometimes.
coxsmn
19/7/2018
16:42
Thanks Arf New here after running from iii.
shieldbug
19/7/2018
16:21
Done 234.5
zebbo
19/7/2018
16:20
Im just about to grab more......fillyerboots
zebbo
19/7/2018
16:15
It's just noise guys relax. Some metals sell off so all related companies are marked down.Being in the lowest quartile of costs for producers this is what I call 'a BIG bargain'.I grabbed Northern 12k shares today. Thankyou very much, cheers easy.
morph7
19/7/2018
16:10
Right now id prefer buybacks to support the price than dividends.
kael
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