Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[haywards26] 01/6/2023 17:05

Its all driven by global economic fears, recessions and more specifically China's consumption of metals being slower to bounce back IMO

[gotabsirius] 01/6/2023 12:14

It's sector wide. Aal, atym etal have all fallen by a similar amount....

[74tom] 01/6/2023 10:33

Just doing some digging & came across this from a couple of months back where they clarified that they don't want to take on debt or raise equity, so are looking for earlier stage exploration & development assets which they can fund to production via free cash flow, whilst also maintaining their dividend;



Classic IC call on price at 241p; "The prospect of an early-stage project coming onto the books could spark nervousness from investors but given management’s keenness to hold onto the dividend and the positive copper price outlook, we remain bullish"

Does this explain the persistent sell off beyond apparent fair value?

[gotabsirius] 01/6/2023 07:52

Note: Taisogan Copper deposit

[gotabsirius] 01/6/2023 07:49

Interesting Mean

This stands to highlight the value in play in this part of the World. There's some large undeveloped copper resources very near to current opps. Wouldn't it be great if they could utilize current facilities/ assets to process new reserves....

[meanreverter] 31/5/2023 21:18

gotabsirius — FAR might be a good fit for CAML. It could be bought for $100m, and a further $150m would bring it into large-scale production over 2 years. It is also based in Kazakhstan, has a 100-year mine life, produces a base metal (vanadium), and has ultra-low costs at the envisaged scale of production.

The $250m estimate here would be below the cost to CAML of the Sasa mine in 2017, namely $402m.

[pughman] 31/5/2023 15:56

Picked up £5k's worth at the close. I asked IR about electricity costs at SASA, where the company took a £5m hit in H2 22, when the contract ended in June last year. They have not signed a new contract, but the spot price in North Macedonia has been circa 14c/kWh, which is significantly lower than H2 22, when it was between 20-40c/kWh.

[spoole5] 31/5/2023 12:34

May as well buy back shares with the excess cash at this level

[gotabsirius] 31/5/2023 12:17

Ape, I think caml is likely to further invest in Kaz. It's as safe to operate in mining sector as anywhere imho. China will see to that....

[zangdook] 31/5/2023 10:00

Everything seems to be down today except Tesla

[return_of_the_apeman] 31/5/2023 09:39

Perhaps the risk for westerners of owning assets in Kazakhstan is rising and that is playing on investors minds

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 30/5/2023 21:00

Certainly tempting at these levels.

[pol123] 30/5/2023 20:51

IMO what we have ATM is bot driven trading on an AIM stock, exacerbated by a seller. Personally I see this as a great opportunity...Unfortunately I pulled the trigger a little to early now av £2.05 on 100k shares, give or take.
LTH for me, I sleep very easy with CAML and have been with CAML in the past at a lot lower CU prices

My biggest problem is I dont have any free cash to add....

[serratia] 30/5/2023 19:16

That fits - profit attributable to shareholders. 2022 $33.7m 2023 $ 71.5m.

[kael] 30/5/2023 19:14

Thanks for that. H2 Cu prices were significantly lower than h1 so far this year and around 10% more produced. Energy costs have also eased ( and will further with solar in H2) Not long to see q2 numbers in July to give the detail. I would be surprised if caml can't make at least 8p div for interim ( around upper end of your numbers).

[pughman] 30/5/2023 17:17

FCF H1 22 $52.1m
FCF H2 22 $37.6m
Mineral Extract Tax 22 $7.2m. Increased by 50% 1.1.23.
15% pay award in 22 at SASA and Kounrad, largely absorbed by dollar strength against Tenge and Denar. Similar pay award 23, with no favourable currency movement, 5 months into the year.
I get FCF H1 23 $30-35m.

[serratia] 30/5/2023 16:33

Research tree post results has a figure for FCF of $62.7m.

[kael] 30/5/2023 15:34

How do you get to less than $30m fcf?

[pughman] 30/5/2023 14:36

On the year to date and following their dividend policy of 30-50% of FCF, I can't see an interim above 6p.

[74tom] 30/5/2023 14:09

135k sell was sitting on the order book at 1.952 when I checked in an hour ago, it was then moved lower and lower until the rump was taken at 1.878.

I've not watched the book here before so I don't know whether sellers have been dropping chunks on the open market for some time or if this may mark the bottom. Regardless, it's certainly oversold on a technical basis and appears way oversold on a fundamental basis.

Not often you see a dividend yield of 10.6% on a multi commodity producer with no debt!

[kael] 30/5/2023 14:02

Copper value has dropped around 20%in same time and the narrative is weaker demand from China than expected + recessions in us and Europe translating to less demand. Miners are being hit on lower demand for their products ultimately.

[2603] 30/5/2023 13:52

I am curious to how this well run company has lost over a 3rd of its value in 3 months.

[melton john] 30/5/2023 09:52

A couple of decent sized trades have moved the price today, perhaps more director buying or the market waking up to the uptrend in other copper miners.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[melton john] 23/5/2023 09:22

And what about the other copper miners whose charts follow the same decline knocker? If you want exposure to copper for when demand picks up, why not go for the one with high margins and dividends. Two NEDs think that's a good idea.

[1knocker] 22/5/2023 11:48

My best guess is that what is hanging over the share price is that CAML needs to make a mine acquisition and it is not at all clear where it will find one, or at what price, and what the consequence would be for the dividend. Also the goepolitical situation, in a region few know much abut. Uncertainty always hits a share price.