Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[rebess4] 09/1/2017 16:17

Saw
HGM presents an impressive profile doesn't it. - After falling away up to the end of 2015, 2016 has been a recovery year for the company and they seem to be nailing it. - Like Centamin, if earnings forecasts are met, it will put them on a very lowly and attractive P/E of around 10, with a well covered dividend yield of around 7% - All of this supported by good positive free-cash-flow. That's impressive. - I don't think I'd be losing too much sleep if I was invested here. Comparing it with Centamin, the main difference as I see it is that HGM has net-gearing of 34% compared to Centamin's negative-gearing status (no debt). Nothing wrong in being invested in both. - If I had to choose which one to invest more in, I think I would have to plump for Centamin, only because there appears to be so much more in the pipeline for Centamin at this stage, the cc especially, that if it comes to pass will have a profound influence in the re-rating of the share price - But I have to say there's not a lot between them. - Actually, as a result of this little exercise, I might have a little dabble in HGM myself. AIMO - cheers. :-)

[rebess4] 09/1/2017 15:17

Saw - Hi

I'll have a look at HGM and come back to you. - cheers.

[sawadee3] 09/1/2017 13:42

I can imagine your calculator has been red hot lately Rebs :-)

Rebs, how does CEY compare to HGM value wise? I hold both but can't help but think CEY will be the one to hold the most of.

[terrybill] 09/1/2017 11:46

2.86 & 2.94c last two years, 2.00c interim this financial year

[zangdook] 09/1/2017 11:30

at a very very rough guess, and just based on memory and on what they say about cash flow, the dividend might increase from ~3c to ~4c pa? If anyone has figures to hand I'm sure they could find a more meaningful answer...

If they throw in spare cash, who knows...

[rebess4] 09/1/2017 11:01

Morning guys

Yes indeed, good results by any measurement. - It's becoming a very exciting company to be a part of. - If earnings come in anywhere near to forecast I feel a major re-rating will be on the cards. - share price capable of doubling this year IMO.

[juju44] 09/1/2017 10:20

Just need to flush through this "sell on the news " brigade and we will be on our way

[jimbowen30] 09/1/2017 09:33

Very very positive - especially the dividend news. Given the large amount of cash on the balance sheet (over $330m) I wonder how much they will distribute over the next few years?

[sawadee3] 09/1/2017 09:24

Indeed, amazing value here but we generally get selling on the day of good news.

Cash waiting for any opportunity, as always :-)

[blowitall] 09/1/2017 09:10

Have they ever let us down. Well done cey.not much reaction in share price though.
If only the legal stuff could be sorted!

[fangorn2] 09/1/2017 08:39

"Due to the strong financial position of the Company and the ongoing cash flow generation from the Sukari Gold Mine, the Board expects the full year dividend to exceed the maximum provided by the current policy."

Luverly jubbly.

FY16 production 551,036 oz, above FY guidance of 520,000-540,000oz!

2017 Guidance: - 540,000oz, Cash Cost $540, AISC $790 (based on assumption of 7.26g/t grade)

Superb.

[sawadee3] 09/1/2017 07:59

Up we jolly well go chaps :-)

Happy days :-)

[wisteria2] 09/1/2017 07:55

Sounds like an increase n the divi! all in all good update..gla

[sparkle_and_fizzz] 09/1/2017 07:18

Q4 2016 Preliminary Production Results, 2017 Production Guidance and Dividend Policy Update

Centamin announces preliminary production results for the quarter ended 31 December 2016 from its Sukari Gold Mine ("Sukari") in Egypt.

Preliminary total gold production for the quarter was 136,787 ounces, an 8% decrease on the previous quarter and a 16% increase on Q4 2015. This brings full year production to 551,036 ounces, a 25% increase on 2015 and above the guidance range of between 520,000 and 540,000 ounces.

Quarterly throughput at the process plant was 2,948kt, a 5% increase on the previous quarter.

Open pit total material movement (ore plus waste) decreased 2% on the previous quarter to 15,811kt. Open pit ore production decreased by 25% to 2,183kt at an average mined grade of 0.84g/t. The average head grade to the plant from the open pit was 0.85g/t. The run of mine ore stockpile balance decreased by 592kt to 577kt at the end of the period.

The underground operation delivered 228kt of ore, 10% less than the previous quarter, at an average mined grade of 10.43g/t. Ore from stoping was 125kt at 10.01g/t and ore from development was 103kt at 10.94g/t.


Q4 2016 (preliminary)
Q3 2016
Q4 2015
Open Pit - Total Material Movement (kt)
15,811
16,191
13,754
Open Pit - Ore Production (kt)
2,183
2,936
2,229
Underground Ore Production (kt)
228
255
300
Process Plant Throughput (kt)
2,948
2,806
2,758
Process Plant Productivity (tph)
1,415
1,437
1,345
Gold Produced (oz)
136,787
148,674
117,644

Forecast production for 2017 from the Sukari Gold Mine is 540,000 ounces at a cash operating cost of US$580 per ounce and all-in-sustaining cost (AISC) of US$790 per ounce. This guidance is based on a plant throughput of 11.75Mt and approximately 1Mt of underground ore mined at a grade of 7.26g/t. During Q1 2017 the open pit is scheduled to develop a low grade east wall cutback and planned gold production will be lower than Q4 2016. With ongoing optimisation, there remains scope for further increases in productivity and production growth.

Centamin's full year results for 2016 are due to be released on 1 February 2017, at which time the Board of Directors expect to propose a final dividend for 2016. Furthermore, due to the strong financial position of the Company and the ongoing cash flow generation from the Sukari Gold Mine, the Board expects the full year dividend to exceed the maximum provided by the current policy. Accordingly, the Board has approved an update to the Company's dividend policy as follows:

The Company's dividend policy sets a minimum payout level relative to cash flow while considering the financial condition of, and outlook for, the Company. When determining the amount to be paid the Board will take into consideration the underlying profitability of the Company and significant known or expected funding commitments. Specifically, the Board will aim to approve an annual dividend of at least 30% of the Company's net cash flow after sustaining capital costs and following the payment of Profit Share due to the Government of Egypt.

Andrew Pardey, CEO of Centamin, commented:

"Production of 136,787 ounces from Sukari in the fourth quarter marked a seventh successive year of growth, with 2016 full year output of 551,036 ounces exceeding the top end of our revised annual guidance range. Free cash flow generation from Sukari has further strengthened Centamin's financial position during 2016, a trend we expect to continue as we forecast 2017 production of 540,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of US$790 per ounce. Ongoing optimisation of the processing and mining operations continues to offer scope for further increases in productivity.

Having considered the Company's financial outlook, as well as our self-funded and staged approach towards project development, the Board expects to propose a final 2016 dividend that is above the level envisaged by our current policy.

We remain committed to our disciplined approach to capital allocation, as well as the potential for exploration to deliver significant shareholder value over the long-term. Results from our programmes in Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire continue to build momentum and warrant further investment, and we again exit the year with a robust financial and operating base on which to continue delivering our growth strategy."

[dmitribollokov] 09/1/2017 07:05

Nice update

[phillis] 08/1/2017 19:15

Hi H
dont lose too much sleep!

[hectorp] 08/1/2017 16:38

Mon day / data/ useful/ thanks Phillis and Rebess

[rebess4] 07/1/2017 11:17

Morning all - I thought the above link would be worth listening to over the weekend. - He seems to be saying 'You aint seen nothing yet'. - Good luck. - Rebs.

[sawadee3] 06/1/2017 13:53

Moving back to blue chaps :-)

[sawadee3] 06/1/2017 11:34

rotrader, much higher than todays ridiculously low price that's for sure!!

Happy to wait and receive the dividends along the journey :-)

[rotrader] 06/1/2017 11:28

Wonder what the price will be in 2026 ;-) CHAPS

[a5wab] 06/1/2017 11:22

Phillis- 2026?

[rebess4] 06/1/2017 11:20

Phillis - hi

Yes, there seems to be some confusion, even in your post. :-) No doubt the fog will clear.

[phillis] 06/1/2017 10:55

Get your terms right chaps
You will get prelims for 2026 in early March

You are going to get rush Q4 PRODUCTION data on Monday