Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[spangle93] 16/7/2024 10:11

No concerns with the depths - the key factor is that it intersects the Triassic.

From table 3 in the GCA report on West Shalva, the wells into other regional Triassic reservoirs are all drilled down to around 3000m, and in the original west Shalva well, which 3D seismic has now shown to have been off structure, the well was drilled to 3500m.

While the Triassic depth and thickness will vary across the region, and no thickness is provided, and the seismic uncertainty will be of the order of 10s of metres, I'd be surprised if the planned well wasn't closer to the 3200m than 2660m

[the new norm] 16/7/2024 10:01

X another thought on going with 2yr appraisal licence is that the domestic sales flowing from this licence are subject to Kaz tax at the very lowest rate which has a positive impact on post tax EPS

Just a thought are we having a GM to consider the remuneration committee recommendations in the audited accounts and any other business arising from their publication. Last year it was held 3 weeks after publication of accounts.

Are they going to roll it into the GM to consider the possible BNG shallows disposal?

[the new norm] 16/7/2024 09:54

Thank S for your comments on WS

Any thoughts on the work programme requiring a 2600m well yet CASP are planning to spud a 3200m one soon

Sounds like they might be in the market to acquire additional rigs, makes sense to have them on site at WS although there are cash flow implications for this course of action

[the new norm] 16/7/2024 09:46

Thanks Spangle much appreciated

Yes the location of 803 appears to be missing from any RNS update, reference in Audited Accounts or the recent Investor Presentation which is either carverspeak or a deliberate ploy!

While we don't know where 801 is located an RNS did say 802 was located 8km away from 801 and it was expected to be their most productive well on this block

They are still considering finding a specialist to get 802 into commercial production, an interval was producing 700-900 bopd but expected this to rise significantly

Just have to wait to see what else they tell us on 803 over next few days or weeks

Tick tock tock #casp ;-)

[bluemango] 16/7/2024 09:41

One thing about the wide spread - it should put off people otherwise tempted to trade part of their holding. They've got to cover that wide spread as well as gamble that it'll temporarily go lower.

Just not worth it. Mine are all in for the duration now ...

[xclusive2] 16/7/2024 09:03

Thanks Spangle.I agree that everything needs to be taken with a very large pinch of salt and yep, 803 impossible to say as zippo detail as usual. Even if this zone is non commercial, I do find it very telling that they've chosen to go for 2 year appraisal extension on the deeps v the 25 year production license. I really did believe that they were priming the deeps for sale with the required reserves assessments but obviously they have unfinished work to complete. Somebody(s) spent £25k on a couple of chunky buys this am but I still sense that there will be a sell off before it goes north but if Zak Mir & TA boys are right, it's movingto mid 5ps before next keg, that'll obviously be news driven. On that point, Mr Carver is providing the detailed operational schedule for H2, that's something that I and other shareholders requested. Whether they stick to it or not is yet to be seen but it's a busy schedule and one that should drive considerable revenue/profitability in H2.Some investors are cynical, sceptical, especially long termers but one way to resolve that, start delivering the goods :)

[spangle93] 16/7/2024 08:53

Ref West Shalva, I'd have a look at



There are some differences between the confidence of the Independent consultants, and the company RNS's and circular, as to how likely oil is to be found in West Shalva.

Gaffney Cline gives a likely chance of success for the Jurassic (ca. 1000m deep) at 54%, and for the Triassic (3000m) at 23%. If we go with the Jurassic, the main issue isn't the reservoir quality or likelihood of a source rock, because there are local analogies to WS (or Black Turtle as the single prospect within the WS licence is currently called), it's the timing and presence of a trap to keep the oil in the reservoir.

So, without wishing to be a total Jeremiah this morning, West Shalva isn't just a case of poking a hole in the ground and sucking - independently, it's assessed as a coin toss.

[spangle93] 16/7/2024 08:37

TNN "On the logistics front how portable are the Rigs owned by CASP, is it a simple process to move rig 600km from BNG to WS"

Yes - they would need to be dismantled and rebuilt on site, but they can be transported. That would be the case for moving a rig within BNG too. However, given the distance, if there's a competent rig already operating in that area, it would be after a cost/benefit analysis.


Smarty "David makes a good point re 803 in the Chairman’s statement, it does sound positive ie prod @ 2300 before contribution from 803"

Taking penrith's approach at not taking at face value what they company says, don't forget that Carver has form at not distinguishing between short term production on tests (or even blowouts!) and longer term development production. By all means be optimistic - actually, you're always optimistic ;-) - but I wouldn't bank 803 barrels yet.


TNN (2) Found an answer in RNS 30 Jan 2023 it's says salt layer starts at 3580m for the 802 drill. 803 has only been drilled to 3420m, is it possible there is an oil column that goes down to salt layer from 3360m?

Yes, it's possible. They've not said why they stopped at that point. However, I don't know how far 803 is from 802, and the top of the salt isn't necessarily a flat surface. Also, remember though they are only testing 1/4 of the 60m column, with no explanation as to why. My guess is that the reason is related to reservoir quality, which of course is unknown below 3420m. So don't bet the house on it yet. ;-)

[the new norm] 16/7/2024 00:15

Thought provoking P but extremely unlikely

KO had a fantastic opportunity to take company private in 2020 when oil hit $6 pob and he was providing on demand secured loans to CASP to meet day to day operational expenses.

He could have called in his loans at any point that suited him and take 100% control of company

What did he do when cash flow pressures eased? He converted his first ranking secured debt into ordinary shares ranking with all other shareholders not really the actions of someone trying to take a company private.

Like X says CASP is a completely different beast now with multi business income streams

The exit for the family, if they ever wanted one is by company sale or IPO of part of their equity holding.

The key to this exit strategy is getting the traded share price as high as possible and share buy backs forms part of that medium term strategy along side getting the EPS growing year on year

The family have a vested interest in maintaining the AIM listing and perhaps in the not too distant membership of the FTSE250 club when they could extract real value for their investments from institutional investors

Stay lucky ;-)

[xclusive2] 15/7/2024 23:19

Sounds like a question for Captain Spangle

[penrith] 15/7/2024 23:01

Thanks NN I did read that and that was what enhanced my view. Experience has taught me to read between the lines on all Casps RNS. In fact one of our biggest problems is the market through experience has little trust in what Casp say. Casp has demonstrated on more than one occasion that they say one thing but mean another.
My view is they benefit greatly by taking this private. Hopefully if they do we will be treated fairly but history has shown us that whatever suits the concert party will happen regardless of the effect it will have on us. Ive been here before and was fortunate that the company I was invested in treated its minority shareholders reasonably well but without a doubt we would have made a lot more money if we had not been de-listed.I will not comment further on the subject its just my view and Im sure the majority disagree with me.

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 22:53

Was trying to find some information on starting depth of salt layer. Found an answer in RNS 30 Jan 2023 it's says salt layer starts at 3580m for the 802 drill.

803 has only been drilled to 3420m, is it possible there is an oil column that goes down to salt layer from 3360m?

[xclusive2] 15/7/2024 22:47

Yep NN. Net profitability higher than international net numbers, also faster cash receipt. Higher revenue yes if exported and more cash inflow pre tax but a vanity v sanity play.David makes a good point re 803 in the Chairman's statement, it does sound positive ie prod @ 2300 before contribution from 803 . I really think the 2 year appraisal licence on the deeps is really significant and that's definitely a change of direction since my last conversation. We'll soon see whether 803 was the reason for that change .

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 22:15

P

the answer to your question is covered in the Chairman's Statement, middle of page 5.

Ownership of more than 50% of the share capital allows CASP to avoid the very expensive process of whitewash everytime they carry out a share buy back. Share buy backs are very good for the share price so let's be having them post the shallows sale.

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 21:57

23440

X agree with your comments about going for the 2yr appraisal licence rather than the 25yr production licence.

The 25yr would have given them the option to sell at international prices but I think the oil trading business is doing so well they make more profit after tax staying with this domestic model.

One thing I noticed regarding WS is that they are planning to spud a 3200m well during the current quarter ending September 24, so not too long to wait. On the logistics front how portable are the Rigs owned by CASP, is it a simple process to move rig 600km from BNG to WS. Do you think they are targeting another 700 bopd from this well?

Not sure if it's carverspeak but later on in the accounts it says once they acquire WS they will have a work programme obligation to drill a 2600m well. Is this another well in addition to the 3200m one or is the 3200m well being used as a substitute to adhere to the work programme requirements?

[david56920] 15/7/2024 18:55

Personally I think its flow and well.

[xclusive2] 15/7/2024 18:50

David,Quite possibly but it could be more Carverspeak, hopefully not. If it is flowing at healthy rates, it'll breach Mr Mir's estimates as the anticipation of success at other assets will push it into double figures as blue sky starts to get factored in :)

[david56920] 15/7/2024 18:40

Total production at the date of this report, before any contribution from Well 803, is approximately 2,300 bopd

Is 803 productive already. Reads like it is

[david56920] 15/7/2024 18:31

Thank you for that .

[xclusive2] 15/7/2024 18:26

David,Reposted your link so it can be opened :)HTTPS://www.share-talk.com/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-monday-15th-july-2024/

[xclusive2] 15/7/2024 18:04

NN,I agree that the company is now in transformation mode and about to go into cash generation mode, paying off all liabilities and hopefully building reserves as-well as the other elements of the business. Unfortunately history has dented credibility and hence poor sentiment and a lack of trust for some of the investor base. The previous poor comms, the announcements of flowing wells followed by problems at every deep asset, same for 141 & 142. There is great news as you've highlighted -;- 2 consecutive years of profitability - CE is great news and hopefully ENI take up their option for 26 and a new contract with another entity in 25 or maybe a share in an offshore play ?- The oil trading business and probably moving to commodities- the rigs business- growing the deep and shallow asset base- the possible sale of BNG shallows at hopefully a fair price There's loads of positives and the market will get it but the biggest tick in the box would be an intermediate (803) or deep success that builds on the existing BNG reserves update and strengthens the NAV. That's big news but even if it didn't happen, they're finding oil at most assets, the issue is conversion so partner or sell the BNG acreage for a tidy sum. They've applied to extend the BNG deep licence for 2 years v go for a 25 year licence. Many have missed this and to me it's another buying signal and they want to complete the appraisal process on NY and Airshagyl deeps. Hopefully 803 is the first win, then onto the original target on a separate well. Partner for 802 and then onto the completion of A7 and the remedial work at A6/7. Also the windfall Divis, the share buy backs. The share price is going to go north and hopefully supported by improving fundamentals so we can stop the retraces and see continued share price growth . This is an absolute raving buy down here and maybe our penny share pumpers, sorry tipsters a la Zak Mir and others will continue to spread the word, our new broker will issue a positive note, hopefully after a successful 803 :) and we start to see the return to fair value but as we know, this will go a lot further on the right news and the blue sky forecasts will start to filter through to the share price Tick, tock, boom .

[david56920] 15/7/2024 17:45

hxxps://www.share-talk.com/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-monday-15th-july-2024/