Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[maxim1999] 23/11/2024 18:11

Every time the shares bounce they retrace. That pattern needs to be broken so it rallies to a higher level , consolidates at the higher level then goes again. Rinse repeat . This change in trading will come.

[konil] 23/11/2024 13:29

smarty, you may be correct re. shallow sale, though i dont put much faith in cc's use of the word imminent!

re. values for deeps, at this stage i'd be happy to see any value as a yardstick. i reckon it will take them at least another year to get a deep/deep structure ready for market and then to attract a bid. hope it happens sooner.
casp have not said deeps are up for sale unless i missed that, but we know they will sell any asset at the 'right' price.

buy backs or divis? they may struggle with buy backs? excluding ko clan and cp does not leave many shares to go after. and if it was involuntary that would catch ko clan and cp in the net.

whatever their game, i hope they feel urgency in getting to the end game.

[xclusive2] 23/11/2024 11:53

K,They would get a far higher price if they could convert any of the blocked wells but I believe we may be surprised as to the value they may achieve without moving them on. NN summary as to the storybook is very likely imo. I believe they'll go buy backs v Divis. Much that market is expecting AR deal to conclude, it's not completed yet although CC did add imminently in latest RNS so I suspect that it's not far away. If it completes then the market will start looking at the future news and the key material events as posted. I believe that we'll go on another run knowing that licences likely to be approved in Q1 and then the continuation of flow testing work on 803 and testing on B8 Akkaduk well. This alongside WS drill and A5 side-track announcement will see so kick on. Also the mining pitch, I think we see that when AR deal done.Could the share price retrace pre AR deal completion and next share price run north ? possibly but you never know with Casper.

[konil] 23/11/2024 11:28

nice story. let's see what reality brings us. probably wont drag on for more than another 2 to 3 years.

[konil] 23/11/2024 11:24

yes, i understand the logic, i just think the numbers are too high, but of course i hope you are correct, or maybe wrong and the numbers are even higher! it would be almost unique if not unique in corporate history but then casp has become an unusual entity. they've staggered through years of operational under performance but remained solvent and amassed large (unproven) assets. a kinder interpretation would be that they have knowingly not spent funds in completing difficult deeps (completions along the way would have been well received but not necessary) but instead focused on drilling to prove the oil, with this end game in mind. perhaps a bit of both. meantime setting up the corporate structure to extract the cash.

it really doesn't matter what the route was to getting here, i just hope they can quickly replace the shallows income (once sold) or they wont have much time to accomplish the end game.

if they pull it off it will be a brilliant story in the annals of corporate history. and all the while being lambasted for poor helmsmanship.

[the new norm] 22/11/2024 20:48

K

KO Family will want to strip out all the cash generated from the Shallows sale, BNG Deeps sale and CE sale

$75m + $250m + $100m = $425m

Mining Co is acquired through new issue of paper and royalty payments linked to future mining profits, similar to proposed B8 acquisition structure

[konil] 22/11/2024 17:30

smarty, they needn't get every deep flowing for a sale, but if they got at least 1 flowing on each structure they'd get a far higher sale price surely? would be a pity to undersell.

[konil] 22/11/2024 17:29

nn, i understand your thinking, and it may well play out like that, and that's fine so hopefully it does.
i dont understand your numbers though. for example the share price may well be 6p once shallow sale completes but no way will they be able to pay out 6p as divi. i've obviously misunderstood your post.

a 15p divi would cost $425m.

[the new norm] 22/11/2024 16:22

K

15p special dividend not impossible

Start at the end game with WS, B8, 3AB and Mining Co

Everything else is cash or available for sale

SP once Shallows sale completes 6p
Sale of BNG Deeps 7p
Sale of CE 4p

10p-15p special div attainable

Works for KO Family gets tax free $$$ out of their Kaz assets, which is their long term goal satisfied

Leaves an AIM listed vehicle which can be used for future asset acquisitions, add value and disposals

[xclusive2] 22/11/2024 16:03

Hi Konil,I don't believe they need the deeps to flow for them to be sold for a considerable sum. Obviously 803 flowing is a great start and hopefully that is the case and not more company fantasy world. A5 has had so much remedial work but they have flowed it at full choke for 15 days at 3800bopd as we know and that in itself would interest any acquisition. Oil allegedly flowed at all deeps and he only P&A being A8 and the other B8 well. 70 or so million is the current m/cap ?BNG deeps NY deeps B8 deepsRigsOil services bizWest ShalvaShallows being soldCaspian ExplorerIf they sold them individually now, they would achieve multiples of the current share price They will crystallise the value of their assets over the coming months and if AR deal completes, they'll accelerate that process but as you say, hopefully with the right kit and skilled personnel.

[konil] 22/11/2024 15:26

nn, a special divi 15p would be fab but at cost of $425m, its somewhat unlikely. i doubt they will get that much for the deeps/ce/etc.

scrwal, i agree a rerate depends on operational success at deeps.
dont know about the mining but given the history here odds are that it will be a damp squib (hope i'm wrong of course).

smarty, 24413, good status recap of assets, brings to the fore the vast potential here. needs the deeps operational success. hopefully the shallows sale cash will enable correctly specified equipment, correctly skilled staff, and a timetable less than 1000 years!
get well soon.

[xclusive2] 22/11/2024 13:55

NN,That's exactly what's going to happen and maybe a special divi but I'd think they'd go buy backs instead. The BNG sale is obvious. They want to increase value with 802/3A5 or A6 wells and as we know, that sends this stock into orbit. Most of the LTHs don't believe this anymore but that's what's going to happen and having prod licences on both blocks gives them options. The BNG structures are too difficult for Caspian although they state that Sinopec did no better when drilling 801. It's primed for sale and the value will be decided by the results from 2 or all of the wells above. It's my only AIM investment and one I'm willing to sit on until it delivers, I'll add the caveat, it may not but that's the cost for a possible multibagger.

[the new norm] 22/11/2024 13:39

Lifted from the KO Family playbook

Complete Shallows sale by end 24

Get production licences by Q1 25

Sell BNG Deeps and CE by end 25

Special Dividend 15p by end 25

Keep B8, WS, 3AB and Mining Asset which throws off 2p EPS m/c £100m

Happy Family and happy PIs

Simples! ;-)

[penrith] 22/11/2024 13:27

It is a strange share. The actual majority of the shareholders know exactly what's going on. The minority are irrelevant so unless it is legally necessary we can be ignored. I did not pick up on this at first so completely my mistake. Lesson learned for the future never invest in an AIM company where a handful of people literally have total control.AGM s and votes are a complete waste of time . What information they release seems deliberately vague and contradictory. Clive is very smart and in my opinion is not the cut and paste baboon that he is portrayed to be.

[scrwal] 22/11/2024 12:50

I don't think this rerates until the new mine and the deeps prove themselves. The company is now in a transitional phase and is therefore marked down by the market because of the uncertainty. There will be sheds loads of money in the coffers but who knows if that will be spent on decent income generating assets at this point in time. This is exacerbated by the ongoing poor communications which don't seem to tell the whole story.

[penrith] 22/11/2024 11:03

Did not think you would resort to rudeness. I am not moaning just sharing a different view . In my experience people who attack the messenger rather than the message are concerned about their own case. I think there is something going on in the background that is in neither of our interests. The current share price more than supports that view.

[xclusive2] 22/11/2024 10:46

That was meant for Penrith

[xclusive2] 22/11/2024 10:46

Yep, this has become a trading stock and yesterday/today was a profit taking day knowing that next material news is not imminent. The AR deal on completion is a good deal especially as MJF is depleting and operational costs are much higher than the WS field for example which has great transport links, not in the middle of nowhere and close to refineries. Material changes in next 3 or 4 monthsAR deal completion Mining proposal/acquisitionWS drill resultLicence approvals on BNG/B8Testing 803/B8 & A5 sidetrackRe the answer is always sell if not happy, it is or carry on moaning, you won't change anything at HQ. They don't give a stuff as we know but they're in it to make a killing and I believe they will eventually. You know what happens with this stock, as soon as the ducks line up and regular news flow very likely as per above (q1), the share price will fly again and maybe there's your chance to exit but if they do convert on any of the assets the share price will break out. FOMO will always play its part for those who have been invested forever IF Casper fulfil its destiny.

[the new norm] 22/11/2024 10:21

Totally agree X

I stick with my previous comment that Clive should have suspended share post September GM for material cause

Now the share is at the mercy of the pumpers and dumpers, the very people Clive says he can't stand

Hope you are enjoying your big pay rise Clive, shame your communication skills are getting worse ;-)

[penrith] 22/11/2024 10:19

X. The response to any poster who doesn't follow the hype is the usual why don't you move on . The answer is quite simple. I am sure like a lot of long term holders I do not expect a fortune from this share but nor do I want to take a hit.I know you are committed to the share and have a large holding but you should accept other opinions like mine. I think there is something going on that may be very detrimental to the ordinary shareholder. I am seeking other shareholders views and may ultimately decide to take a hit. If what we are being advised is honest then there is no logic in this share heading back to below 3p.

[xclusive2] 22/11/2024 09:55

NN,Yep, reserves estimate for NY was to be completed as a condition of the BNG licence approvals so I assume it was done OR more poor cut and paste comms from Clive. I have asked the question.P,No CE cash received ? where have you got that from ? Peeps have to make up their own mind on Casper opportunity. Yep, loads of stale bulls probably exited yesterday, those who bought in the 2s could be sellers also, taking a profit. Good luck to them. I believe that the company is hugely undervalued as to the current Broker but the PIs dictate the price and share price will only appreciate as they commercialise the assets. I believe that ducks are lined up and they'll slowly commercialise them by producing oil or selling the assets inc the CE maybe. I'm willing to wait as I know that the big boys are fully invested and continue to BUT it isn't for everybody so those who don't see the opportunity should sell as I don't understand why you'd stay invested ? If you're losing money and don't believe it's going anywhere, surely you sell, take the loss and invest elsewhere.

[the new norm] 22/11/2024 09:53

That's my point X

Well 815 reached TD at end of September

Now(21st Nov) they are planning to do acid treatment

It's not as though they have lots of drilling going on with the licence renewal pause?

Why is it taking so long to get well flowing?

Doesn't stack up, Clive is holding back key operational information on virtually everything at moment! Question is why?

Just to prove point...no mention of current production levels in yesterday's RNS...is it still 1600 bopd?

[xclusive2] 22/11/2024 09:21

Doing an acid wash NN. If it does flow then it's over to AR. Ç