Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[the new norm] 14/7/2024 15:45

Thanks X for clarifying cost

Payback even quicker at 1 month post start of commercial flow

So 4 months tops to drill 815 and hopefully we see similar flow rates as 155, October?

Renegotiation or entry of other bidders post 8th August on back of 155 result I'm thinking ;-)

[xclusive2] 14/7/2024 14:46

A lot of thinking NN.....lolOriginally the MJF verticals were c $2m but with their rigs, it's nearer $1m and a very quick return as you've highlighted so begs the question , why sell it ? 155 is a new well as opposed to the re-entries on other wells so maybe this success alters their strategy or worst cases, forces a much higher price. If they land 803, we're going to see the BNG acreage attracting predators, hopefully those with very deep pockets ;)Regardless of how this trades tomorrow, the sheer number of assets in play in H2 will see this trade north on anticipation only. If we get the great news, buckle up !

[the new norm] 14/7/2024 12:53

Anyone know how much well 155 cost to drill?

We have our own rigs and drilling company so I'm thinking $1.5m?

6 weeks capex payback per drill seems a very good cash flow model which could be put on a regular repeat cycle

With 2 x Well 155 flowing at 700 bopd each, you match forecast JPR daily output for YE28....min market cap $60m!

#makes you think ;-)

[the new norm] 14/7/2024 10:34

23376

Morning Spangle

The unit price used in the JPR forecast is not obvious in report projections but with a little math your question is answered

YE25 $31.34
YE26 $32.91
YE27 $34.56
YE28 $36.26

YE28 pre tax EPS $0.00347
Target share price based on JPR YE25/YE28 financial forecast $0.05 -$0.095
1.275bn issued shares
Market cap $60m -$120m

YE28 forecast production 1600 bopd

[bluemango] 13/7/2024 20:42

Many thanks Spangle, will respond soon, probably Monday. Very much appreciated.

Edit: Now replied.

[spangle93] 13/7/2024 18:39

o/t - sorry, BM, just found a message from a few days ago, and have replied. Apologies for the oversight

[the new norm] 13/7/2024 12:00

Don't you just love it when a GOOGLE search goes wrong!



Stay lucky all ;-)

[the new norm] 13/7/2024 08:46

155

700 x $32 x 365 = $8.176m

700 x $30 x 365 x 53% = $4.06m

$12.182m pa just from 155 assuming current domestic sales rates and 53% of production going through our oil trading business

What's not to like, market just needs to catch up with the reality that the trading licence is now very valuable to the Group business going forward(and the TL doesn't just cover our own oil but also MINERALS)

Tock tick tick ping # ;-)

[xclusive2] 12/7/2024 14:25

Yep, Monday is the 15th ! CE good news. 155 good news and hopefully the reduction to 700bopd is sustainable as opposed to the 142 debacle. They're selling the shallows and I was hoping for a little more clarification to confirm 155 would firm part of any deal with AR. 803 - cut and paste and change the 11-15m. If the well was flowing you'd have expected to see initial results or maybe they don't want any more eating of humble pie as a result of updating prematurely. A missed opportunity for Caspian and I'm sure they'd have wanted you to release conclusive positive news by unfortunately not.Sp reaction on Monday ? I believe it gaps up and moves north before selling and finushis in the 4-5p range. If we'd had positive initial 803 news then it would've broken out and 7p+. If you're a buyer, there may be a very good opp to pick up stock on thr cheap pre a very busy Q3.

[moneylender] 12/7/2024 13:45

The Board of Caspian Sunrise is pleased to update shareholders with news of:



· Publication of the 2023 audited financial statements

· The ongoing well tests for wells 155 and 803 at the BNG Contract Area

· Well 815 - the new shallow well being drilled at the BNG Contract Area

· The charter for the Caspian Explorer; and



Publication of the 2023 audited financial statements

The audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2023 ("Accounts") are expected to be published on Monday 14 July 2024. Following publication of the Accounts, trading in the Company's Ordinary Shares on AIM is expected to be restored on the same day.



Operational update



BNG well tests



Well 155

Well 155 on the shallow MJF structure at the BNG Contract Area was spudded in Q1 2024 with a planned total depth of 2,400 meters. Drilling has been completed and oil detected over a 22 meter interval.



A 16 meter interval was perforated from which oil has now flowed for the past 13 days. To optimise the longer term output of the well the flow rate has been reduced to approximately 700 bopd.



Well 803

Deep Well 803 was spudded in Q4 2023 with a planned Total Depth of 4,200 meters and a primary target at a depth of 3,950 meters with a secondary target at a depth of 4,200 meters.



Oil has been detected over a 60 meter interval between 3,360 meters and 3,420 meters, above expectations and also above the main salt layer.



Testing continues over an interval now extended to 15 meters.



Well 815

Well 815 is a new well on the South Yelemes shallow structure at the BNG Contract Area with a planned total depth of 1,900 meters.



Drilling has now reached a depth of 240 meters without incident.



Caspian Explorer

The first commercial drilling charter for the Caspian Explorer under the Group's ownership has started as planned and on time.



AIM Rule 17 Schedule 2 (G) Update



Clive Carver, Executive Chairman of Caspian Sunrise, was appointed as a director of Airnow PLC ("Airnow") on 21 June 2017 and resigned on 25 November 2022. On 9 October 2023, Airnow shareholders appro

[the new norm] 12/7/2024 13:25

Thanks S will have a look for it over the weekend ;-)

[scrwal] 12/7/2024 12:52

RNS out - CE has started drilling. Accounts out Monday. 155 flowing at 700 bopd.

[spangle93] 12/7/2024 12:12

TNN - first thing to try to find in the JPR report would be the oil price assumption. It says that they have an export licence, but as we know, that doesn't mean much at the moment. The DCF valuation method depends greatly on the unit price assumption, and a formal CPR has to state it. I haven't read start to finish, but it's not declared in the obvious places (page 21, Appendices)

Other quick point ref 803 is that the cross section on pg 31 does reinforce the Triassic reservoir potential, rather than the MJF and South Yelemes Jurassic structures

[the new norm] 12/7/2024 11:42

Kaz economy must be improving their Central Bank just announced a Base Rate reduction, maybe BoE will follow their lead on 1st August!

[the new norm] 12/7/2024 10:48

Totally agree S I can't see ENI shelling out $150k per day to CASP just to have CE sitting idle at Abay site, that just wouldn't make any sense at all.

Next RNS might clarify, however more likely to say well spudded and drilling without incident

Any thoughts on the JPR report, link just appeared on LSE board, CASP gets a few mentions! They are producing 650 bopd and broker has target market valuation of £100m subject to production increasing to 2500 bod over next 3 years.

Looks like a mini CASP without the trading licence, drill barge and possible mining acquisition in Q4

[konil] 12/7/2024 10:48

spangle, maybe i'm being naive but operational matters/problems with the ce drilling are presumably the responsibility of the lessee (unless the deal was hedged around with 'ifs' and 'buts', or something wrong with the boat itself), so as long as casp get paid the fees that are due then it does not impact casp income. $150k per day or something like that.

also, it should not affect the 2025 ce deal on a different target with a different lessee, though it may affect the 2026 deal with existing lessee.

i'm probably being too simplistic but we'll know more when status reports are rns'd.

[spangle93] 12/7/2024 10:16

Oh, thanks for going so far back. From that post it appears to be a pers comm or something like that, rather than public domain material.

I can't think of any well with which I've been involved in 35 years that has one rig drilling, and another rig idly standing by, just in case. Even Filanovskoe, which is in similar water depths in the northern Caspian.

Every well should have an blowout prevention plan, and contingencies should one occur. Maybe in the case of this exploration well, it involves identification of availability of a suitable rig candidate.

Maybe because there are so few that can operate in these land locked shallow waters, authorities now demand that a second rig has to be there during the drilling of a section in which a blowout might occur.

But surely it wouldn't need to be there from the start?

[the new norm] 12/7/2024 09:46

Ask CC LSE CASP 27 June 2024 12:27 ;-)

[spangle93] 12/7/2024 09:14

Thanks for the explanation, TNN

It sounds pretty unusual though - where would I find the contract details that state this?

[bloomberg2] 12/7/2024 09:12

Stop making excuses!! Like your thinking though x

[xclusive2] 12/7/2024 08:47

Suspended 7 days last year, looks like 2 weeks minimum this year. Are they holding off to get conclusive flow rate info on 155/803. I expected them to release that news pre re-admission so maybe that's still the plan. The weekend gives them a little more time to provide conclusive detail :)

[jayrh] 12/7/2024 08:44

Publication of the 2023 Financial Statements The Board expects to publish the audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2023 by the end of the week, which would allow a resumption in the trading of the Company's shares on AIM. 

[xclusive2] 12/7/2024 08:03

Same old Casper, keeping us guessing g !

[the new norm] 12/7/2024 07:42

I guess the Monday RNS was published at 13:43 so it could be anytime today or maybe next week now ;-)