Caspian Sunrise Plc

0.00 (0.0%)
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Caspian Sunrise Plc LSE:CASP London Ordinary Share GB00B1W0VW36 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 5.80 866,224 08:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
5.70 5.90 5.80 5.80 5.80
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil And Gas Field Expl Svcs 25.00 -5.55 -0.30 - 122.42
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
15:45:04 O 13,726 5.828 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
05/6/202316:53Caspian Sunrise22,066
01/6/202312:33Caspian Sunrise2
26/5/202306:52Caspian Sunrise-
24/2/202313:32Caspian Sunrise 11,088
25/5/202218:48Caspian Sunrise 2019 -20217,373

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Caspian Sunrise (CASP) Most Recent Trades

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Posted at 01/6/2023 07:21 by togglebrush
FWIW Source Stockopedia ...... Upcoming Events for CASP

Monday, June 26th 2023 ......Full Year 2022 Caspian Sunrise PLC Earnings Release

Friday, June 30th 2023 ..... Caspian Sunrise PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting

Monday, September 25th 2023 ..... Half Year 2023 Caspian Sunrise PLC Earnings Release

Posted at 23/5/2023 07:28 by togglebrush
For dreamers this was set out in the last Annual Report 2021 on 27/06/2022
Extract Cash based incentives

In May 2019, we introduced a cash based long term incentive arrangements for the senior management team since 2012, Kuat Oraziman and Clive Carver.

Under these arrangements, provided the share price growth exceeds pre-set targets starting at 17.23p, then for every $500 million increase in the Group's market capitalisation above $300 million, as adjusted to take account of dividends paid, both Kuat Oraziman and Clive Carver, would receive payments of $3 million each.

The principal hurdles under these arrangements are set out in the table below.

Market cap threshold Share price Pay-out rate Pay-out amount target (each)
$' billion____Pence per share __%__ $' million
---------------- ------------- ---------------

_____0.8_____ 17.23____ 0.6___ 3.0
---------------- ------------- ---------------
_____1.3_____ 20.67___ 0.6 ____3.0
---------------- ------------- ---------------
_____1.8_____ 24.81___ 0.6____ 3.0
---------------- ------------- ---------------
_____2.3 _____29.77___ 0.6____ 3.0
---------------- ------------- ---------------
_____2.8 _____35.72___ 0.6____ 3.0
---------------- ------------- ---------------

Posted at 16/5/2023 09:13 by xclusive2
As posted on LSE yesterday. I really hope that I'm wrong re poor drilling news or minimal progress. The fact that they're very likely to include in FY accounts v separate RNS says something. As per my post below, financially things should be good providing the variables ie prod volume, sale prices and buyer split are accurate. You can see that paying £12m pa divi is a big chunk of cash compared to income especially when they have to run an active operational schedule. I suspect that's why they have decided to sub out 803.'Somm, The last RNS was ambiguous as to completion and perforation but I'm hoping that they've drilled on to the original TD before perforating and achieving higher rates. The commentary is so ambiguous ie flowing open hole, stabilising before perforation and possible higher rates, could be side-track only or drilling on but we'll find out shortly. Et al, What can we expect on the financial front for H2 and estimates for numbers ytd 23 ? The crude prices were still high averaging in the $90+ range but Casper not benefitting as a result of Urals discount and Kaz tax on gross crude, not discounted price. So H2 will see gross prices at $38 for MR business and $28 for domestic so gross revenue for H2 should be c $14m based on a 50:50 Domestic/MR split and 2400bopd Profitability will be high as costs for MR and Domestic sales are minimal and hopefully the additional $5-10 is making a difference in H1 adding c $3m. You can see that cash flow maybe a little tight when committing to $1.2m pm and managing a busy drilling schedule. Could be the reason why they're subbing out 803. Caspian is in a far stronger position financially than it's ever been. You've only got to look at last few years inc Covid challenges to see the difference now. The CE cash is a huge boost especially if first explo well is successful as that will lead to more charters or barge sale. The big miss is the drilling progress and I'm hoping that my scepticism is misplaced. They have the money to continue operations without fundraisers and it would be good to understand when $15m barge cash is to be paid. Continued div payments are essential so hopefully no hiccups there. H2 should be healthy from a financial perspective, probably less so in H1 if reduced crude prices have affected dom/MR receipts. There are so many variables on the risk front but we know what they are, hopefully no negative surprises come next update. The multi-bagger opportunity is still here but we only get there with deep success so let's hope that we see it kick off with 802 !
Posted at 05/5/2023 08:59 by xclusive2
It's looking very likely that news could be released with FY accounts although I'm hoping that it's sooner. Historically, FY accounts are released in June but last RNS stated May together with a divi declaration. The share price has retraced as a result of radio silence but we have no idea as to quality of impending news. The fact that they have communicated the active operational schedule ie wells 141/142/145 workover and new 155 on MJF, you'd have expected to see material news released ? That's why the share price has drifted but as stated, nobody has a scooby. Oil price retrace of 15% over last 6 months hasn't helped either but still a healthy number looking at average prices during their time in business. Worst case, a comprehensive update with FY accounts but I'm hoping we see one sooner as they could dump poor news in a comprehensive update as there will be so much to digest.Let's hope 4 months in the potting shed was worth it :)
Posted at 17/3/2023 17:09 by spangle93
I thought something had kicked off in China when I read it

Paying4it "Is the Caspian explorer busy doing casps wells this year?"
No, it's a barge that operates in the very shallow waters of the North Caspian sea, whereas currently CASP only has land operations.

CASP does own its own land rigs too, which means they only cost manpower, consumables, and maintenance rather than a day rate

Posted at 07/3/2023 23:19 by xclusive2
Evening Maxim,

I haven’t got a scooby re 802 news but bought today as I believe the sell off is overdone.

Et Al,

We may get good, bad or indifferent news but I don’t see it as being bad, either indifferent or good. They made a bold statement re flowing open hole but that doesn’t guarantee success but the oil was flowing (allegedly) and they made the statement that production with this oil = 3000bopd+ from BNG. For me, worst case is stabilising the well again and maybe issues with that or blockages after perforation, again ! If that’s the case, what happens to share price ? probably a retrace into the 5p range but then there’ll be the realisation that 141/142/155/A7/A5/802/SY horizontal etc are all I play this H1. Divis to continue and $15m bagged for 24, maybe $30m.

The big boys ie the WCP aren’t selling and they don’t care about daily share price fluctuations or share price anxieties. They want their payday and if the BNG deeps don’t materialise, they move onto Block 8 and Wind Farms ! and they can do this as long as shallows and CE continue to feed in the cash.

Peeps have forgotten what the financials have looked like historically. It’s a completely different story now if the net backs from MR/Domestic market are continuing and the production sustained. I’m happy to pay current price for a few more and will probably add more if we see weakness if 802 result not favourable.

Casper has always been a risky play but if you want the big returns, risk is part of that game.

As always, tick, tock.

Posted at 27/2/2023 10:21 by xclusive2
K,We've been invested long enough to know that anything can happen. It's easy to knock the share price at this juncture as it's had a great run without news. You could argue that if it was all good, they'd want to continue the share price run by releasing good news, by not doing so means share price will retrace. To counter that, they've released news prematurely on many occasions which have led to a lack of trust and sentiment. The WCP shareholders aren't interested in share price movements at this juncture, they're taking out 80% share of the £1m divi and as long as Caspian is producing, they get rich regardless of immediate share price price. Their goal is to build production and they know the share price will react accordingly. The PIs have always been an irritant to them and the trading action is largely PI based and therefore dictate the daily price. The WCP are building the NAV and to do that they need to build production with the eventual goal of exiting via a trade sale. The tax/bonus structure is in place, all they need now is to get a success at N Yelemes and Airshagyl, that'll put them on the M&A radar. Then they'll probably drill a couple of holes at Block 8 and suddenly Casper looks a very tasty morsel on the acquisition table. That's always been the game and the big boys make a fortune, the little old PIs will do very well if they achieve their ultimate goal.All ifs and buts until they prove up the deeps but the story is still alive with an entrance price of 7.75p.
Posted at 25/2/2023 10:10 by xclusive2
C 1.6m sold, 2.3m bought. Many peeps not wanting to be in for news and others still buying and maybe the FOMO effect kicking in. We’re speculating on 802 as the most material news item and how the share price will react to success/failure. Obviously there are different flavours of success/failure but the upside outcome is going to be far greater than the downside and odds stacked in our favour if decision solely based in terms of ROI.

If 802 flows at say 1000 bopd, the share price will break double figures and probably go on a run into the teens or higher so we’re looking at 100% returns v a downside to the 5p region on a failure outcome. 200%+ v 30-35% decline ? I also believe that 802 news won’t be a terminal result if they fail to get it to flow, it’ll be another ‘remedial work needed’ scenario and an element of hope factor will remain in the price for the well and other deeps. You also have the other factors ie the other assets and many being worked on now and with the shallows, a higher probability of success to underpin the share price

For me, you have to be in for the 802 result, good, bad or indifferent as the odds are in our favour. They’ve found oil, it’s flowed at volume for 3 days and it’s meant to be our best COS. If it is a positive outcome at say 1000 bopd, the re-entry price will be painful for those who sit it out. Maybe those who have sold believe that the downside will be immediate whereas the upside will take time to materialise and maybe a gamble worth taking. If I see a positive result ie the well has been perforated and flowing for 15 days at 1000 bopd of high quality crude on x choke, I will be adding another chunk and I’m sure there will be others like me that have stock but know the upside opportunity. There will be huge demand from the newbies and hot money as the share price gaps up and those sitting on the side will mean there will be huge demand as they rejoin the game.

A simple game of supply and demand but the demand magnitude will be far greater than the supply on a positive outcome and that’s why you should be in the game for news. All fiction until we see the news but the upside odds are definitely with the longs.

Fingers x’d for a run of fantastic news on Al fronts.

Posted at 03/2/2023 11:44 by someuwin
Reminder WH Ireland 30/Jan/2023

"...Although at this stage it is difficult to draw any precise conclusions, this is clearly a very exciting development in our opinion. We are in big-oil country: Deep subsalt structures in the North Caspian Basin, by international standards, typically have large oil bearing columns, large areas and high oil/gas saturations. We note that the well clearly wants to flow to the extent that it has created very considerable operational risks that Caspian Sunrise has managed successfully so far.

The result builds further on the operational success of Caspian Sunrise, namely, the strong production results from its shallow assets (above the Kungurian salt) and the recent contract win announced in respect of the Caspian Explorer. Already well supported by a 10% dividend yield, we expect a very positive share price reaction to this development."

Posted at 07/11/2022 10:49 by xclusive2
Morning all,

My summary trying to be objective as poss knowing that I hold a chunk of stock !


It was a mixed RNS and if it was issued without the divi declaration, I believe the share price would have retraced but the saviour was the divi and to pay it monthly, a minimum of £1m pm starting 16/12. As people have already articulated here, £5328 pa if you hold 1m shares and a very healthy return if you based the yield on the 2.5p price on Friday am. Obviously many investor averages are way above this price so you base your yield on your own personal pot value. There was healthy trading on Friday and that has continued today which is great to see and as of now share price is up 80% with divi payment on top. The divi was good news providing they can continue to pay it and to announce it at this level they must feel confident that they will have enough cash. The larger players especially the WCP now have a healthy revenue stream heading off to tax free havens providing they can generate cash. The Orazimans will benefit from £7.5m pa from Casper on an ongoing basis until they decide to sell it. Personally, I’d like to see a chunk of that spent on operations but to me it looks like a ‘take the cash’ play or you could say ‘share the cash’ play whilst it’s there and a hedge against failure on the operational front.

The good news first, they continue to produce 2400bopd from the shallows. They also have flowed 802 but are having to sidetrack from a much higher level and the opportunity is in the intermediate zone not the deeper zones so I suspect flow rates will be in the 100s if successful but the key element will be the P1/2 numbers.

The poor news, no progress on the current shallows which I found disappointing. 142 was announced a success at 1400bopd in May and 5 months on, still no update after having issues with water cut. Also 141 horizontal has hit problems too and no update there either or on the 145 workover. Obviously having problems or have they gone on a go slow conserving cash to ensure they can hit dividend payments? They’ve obviously had problems that they’re trying to resolve.

They expect to get production back to previously announced levels which is c4000bopd on shallows and maybe more to add if 802 a success.

This was the best news for me and I’ve qualified it out with Casper. They are selling existing oil at a 50:50 ratio between MRs and domestic market. They are achieving $38 gross from refineries and $37 net as there is little cost as the oil is being picked up from site, no treatment or transport costs and little tax. Domestic is achieving $33 and c $28 net so you can now work out profitability. Added bonus is the new reading arm that could achieve another $5-10 come Q1 next year. They also have the opportunity to export at higher prices of crude increase and sanctions discount is diluted, that’s an if.

They didn’t include in update, why ? The optimist would think that they could be close and ready to issue another announcement soon ? Could be the reason that they’re confident of delivering at least £1m per in Divis ? To counter that, if they were getting barge cash, they wouldn’t have stalled shallow operations til Q1 and I would have expected them to accelerate operations not mothball them.

The big positives were the ability to pay divis on a monthly basis and the oil receipts position as of today. They are generating $28.5m currently using the confirmed 50:50 split on MR/Domestic oil and $35m as of Q1 next year with the additional trading opp, using $7.5 as the mid point. These numbers are netback numbers and before any operational costs.

In summary, ‘ a mixed bag’ for me but the market likes it ! I’m not moaning bit I’d have much preferred to see operational success with a sensible divi as that would’ve really driven the share price northwards. Our continued success comes from operational success and I’m hoping that they have enough cash to fulfil an active operational schedule.

Tick, tock.

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