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CASP Caspian Sunrise Plc

3.70
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 08:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Caspian Sunrise Plc LSE:CASP London Ordinary Share GB00B1W0VW36 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 3.70 210,768 08:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
3.60 3.80 3.70 3.70 3.70
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Oil And Gas Field Expl Svcs USD 42.95M USD 9.76M USD 0.0043 8.60 83.27M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
08:00:19 O 104,668 3.77 GBX

Caspian Sunrise (CASP) Latest News

Caspian Sunrise (CASP) Discussions and Chat

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Date Time Title Posts
21/5/202421:54Caspian Sunrise23,028
01/6/202312:33Caspian Sunrise2
26/5/202306:52Caspian Sunrise-
24/2/202313:32Caspian Sunrise 11,088
25/5/202218:48Caspian Sunrise 2019 -20217,373

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Caspian Sunrise (CASP) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
07:00:203.77104,6683,945.98O
07:00:193.77106,1003,999.97O
2024-05-21 15:27:353.7836,7211,388.02O
2024-05-21 15:24:093.7080,8012,988.02O
2024-05-21 15:22:393.6881,1972,988.05O

Caspian Sunrise (CASP) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 16/5/2024 12:36 by the new norm
quiet day in the office so got some time to speculate on what the future holds for CASP over next 12 months

following the $83m sale RNS I think we can bin the idea that the family is looking to sell whole Group and exit with bags of cash, I think this proposed sale of BNG shallows also quashes the speculation that the Family is planning to shaft the PIs and take the Group private on the cheap

$83m is a good price for the BNG asset but do you really want to lose the production just as you are beginning to create new profit streams from oil trading and drilling?

I think the answer lies in Block 8

Subject to block 8 licence renewal and sign off by the authorities CASP will initially have 4 deep wells with 1600 bopd production...speculation on my part...we have been told that the existing 2 deeps have produced up to 800 bopd but are currently only producing 110 bopd because of licence renewal requirements. I am assuming that the recently drilled and soon to be tested wells(2 wells) also produce at 400 bopd per well

CASP achieving $35 a barrel in local markets less $5 per barrel royalty payment

1600x$30x365 = $17.5m gross profit

Oil trading 1600x$10x365 = $6m gross profit

Block 8 production at these levels would replace current BNG shallow production

Add in CE profit of $15m and something for drilling services and you get annual gross profit north of $40m pa

Sale of BNG shallows brings in $83m less $15m historic costs less $5m block 8 loan less oil trading finance and they will be sitting on $60m cash on balance sheet

Ignores any production from BNG/SY deeps and WS and 3ABest

All potentially happening in the current financial year ending Dec 2024

Looks good for a penny a share dividend and possibly a special dividend of 1p within next 12 months

The Family get $25m+ in dividends and CASP share price hits 20p+

Very scalable business model with lots of potential for dividend growth from increased oil production and future profitable asset sales

Market cap quickly increases above KO/CC big bonus hurdles and they get their big pay days too

Exciting times ;-)
Posted at 09/5/2024 13:54 by the new norm
did the 'Family' subtly put the 'for sale' sign up on 31st October 2023 and we all missed it?

why else did the company go to the not insignificant expense of preparing a glossy 24 page Investor Presentation document? the half year results were medicore, they had stopped the dividend earlier in the year, all negative stuff which drove share price back to the 2s from 8....

who was the Presentation for? Family and Concert Party? PIs?

Family don't need a glossy document to tell them what they are doing and why would it be prepared for the benefit of PIs who are constantly kept in the dark?

For sale sign on whole Group business makes much more sense

Reading the March 24 RNS in this context also begins to shed light on what the Family is trying to achieve...all positive stuff covering wide range of Groups business activities and multiple profit income streams in current financial year

In addition this RNS confirms they have a few interested parties in the shallows, will this interest develop into an interest in the whole Group?

Interesting that the RNS even covered 3A Best which is fully impaired and has been in limbo for years, but the RNS is keen to stress that if licence is renewed and the directors chose to sell asset it will be all profit from that transaction. If you were discussing sale of whole of CASP this comment makes sense to extract the best possible takeover price

Adding WS shortly after the March 24 RNS also suggests that something is brewing behind the scenes. The Family sell asset to Group for 4p a share knowing that xxp is coming once takeover is sealed. This acquisition and the subsequent issue of additional shares to the Family ensures they now have controlling interest of CASP with their total Family shareholding going above 50%....perfect timing???

The Family went to incredible lengths to have all their shareholdings held through QAE tax free vehicles...if it bags 5x or more then not wasted effort bearing mind the Kaz tax they would have avoided paying

I've probably been sniffing too much of the fumes from the paint drying here but then again a potential buyer of CASP will be insisting on radio silence while they fine tune their negotiations with the Family!
Posted at 08/5/2024 10:38 by xclusive2
A pal did Coronado last year as part of a bigger trip and really enjoyed it.As u say, back to business. Mr Cautious as his name suggests and he and as he states his interest is a very minimal one as he's sold out. He's made the point re getting shafted and possibility of getting stuffed many times but why stay invested ? As per my previous posts on the subject, I don't see it for the reasons I've posted previously. I'm not saying it's not possible but that would only be as a last resort. If they wanted to really shaft PIs then that's easy, they issue poor news and crash the price, add a load of assets in and dilute us todeath and acquire at fire sale price. They're not doing that and there are several reasons as to why not. Firstly, Kaz is a tribal country and our KO has to walk the tightrope in order not upset the elite. I've had this conversation many times with the company. KO isn't an elite and his assets are locked in Casper with a London listing that gives him considerable protection from any predators. I spoke to Clive recently about 3AB and the likelihood of receiving our investment back. He was hopeful of receiving the monies but also stated that 2 senior Kazakhs are fighting for the acreage and it's not friendly ! If KO really upset PIs, much that we are a minority, we could cause him grief that could lead to a loss of an AIM listing. I believe he'd struggle to list on another Bourse if that happened and his assets would not be protected, that's another conversation I've had with the company. He's putting all his assets into Casper with the objective of binning them for a tidy sum, whether that bean ultimate trade sale or individual asset sale. His whole empire comes tumbling down if he takes it Private as he'll be at mercy of those looking to take advantage including KMG and the State. If you don't comply with all the licence commitments then you're toast and Caspian with its listing can raise money as and when to ensure the funds are always available.As per my last post re asset sales, I believe that Casper will sell any asset at the right price. They've been useless with the drill bit on all deep prospects yet all have flowed and at some juncture they have to involve a skilled partner to share the spoils or they'll sell the whole shooting match with shallows imo. They may become asset flippers as they did with Galaz, that was a great deal, they will do it again. Next 3 months are going to tell us a lot with regards to a successful future. They need to generate cash and we should see that in the next few months, if we don't, time to reassess investment decisions. I'm still bullish on making a few bags here but not got the rose tinted specs on. This investment is high risk and for that there has to be a big return, as of yet we've not seen that but the potential is still there. Next 3 months will tell me what I need to know and if it's not as I want it to be, I will be reducing my exposure .
Posted at 07/5/2024 11:37 by xclusive2
Back from a nice little break in CA. Can't believe how expensive it is now !! Need our Casper to start delivering the 'shareholder value' they've been promising for 18 years! As has been stated MANY times, there's a lot on the go that could finally improve the NAV considerably and create that shareholder value that is long overdue.23 Financials will be out in June and we're going to see profitability BUT liabilities increasing due to increasing loans. Now is the time to turn that tide and reverse the dilutive process by generating cash. The next few months should see inflows from various sources. Firstly the B8 contract. The licence approval could be imminent and if so, we can expect to see loan repaid and the first revenues from existing production, to be followed by the testing on the 2 new deeps and hopefully some success at long last.Next to the CE. A couple of links below show that Abay well is going to happen and hopefully that means the CE is still the preferred drilling solution. If so there's $10m+ coming our way and probably more as the drilling time allocated is probably too optimistic so I'd be expecting more than the 10m profit. https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fqazmonitor.com%2Fnews%2F2916%2Fhow-kazakhstan-revamps-its-subsurface-management-in-2024%3Famp%3D1&data=05%7C02%7C%7C15e84f1eb9ac4fdedf9208dc6d86acfe%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638505672400548442%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=t57PmwrWRXu625JRAQn7%2FV%2FiSnmHt0oFIehSwyeFibg%3D&reserved=0https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/101875/Both recent publications and stating that Abay exploration still planned. Will success at Abay mean more work for CE or will Casper trade cash for a small % of the bigger projects ? Next the shallows sale ? They've announced the possible interest in the shallows yet they're completing 803 before applying for a production licence on an acreage ie the BNG deeps that has produced zero to date. Yes, all wells bar A8 have flowed but could any future sale include the deeps ? Either way, there could be a significant injection of cash, my concern would be whether it's more than the NAV. The big question, are Casper capable of delivering deep success ? I'm not convinced and maybe their success will come from buying and flipping assets for a considerable profit ?Other sources of cash ? increased production of course and who knows, 803, Block 8 or any other deep like A5 would obviously transform the landscape but that's not immediate. Our new Camel acreage at WS. The oil is allegedly seeping to the surface and it will take little time to drill a well and if successful, cash inflows could happen far sooner than at MJF. Infrastructure far better too and less transportation costs improving profitability.If they do generate cash then it gives them the opportunity to grant a special divi or who knows, they may go into share buy back mode. Next few months will be defining for Caspian. We're getting to the conclusion stage on many assets and plenty of news in the coming days, weeks and months. Time to start generating cash to reduce those liabilities and if they do sell BNG shallows or even the deeps, what do they do with the cash ? I suspect that they buy more assets, easier targets (allegedly) like WS where hopefully their skills snd capabilities are a match for the asset to be drilled. SP @ 3.4p ? regardless of success, the share price will run again as peeps talk it up as news nears. Hopefully this time the hype will be met with positive news that finally strengthens the foundations. If they do deliver success, you can expect to see ridiculous hype here, long overdue for those invested for years :)
Posted at 18/4/2024 16:17 by xclusive2
The timing of the WS acquisition was poorly timed from a PI perspective but not for the CP/WCP as they are maxing out their allocation. If they really wanted to milk it, they could've done it earlier when share price was in the 2s. They released the ooss shallows sale news as significantly higher than carry value, they could've held that back and the 142/SY positive (ish) news and ensured that the share price was depressed and strike price lower.I think the share price will wallow down here until the WS deal is voted through but then PIs will get interested again as they look forward to the Q2 news update due ie Shallow sale Shallow drilling 803 A5 B8 Caspian ExplorerAll of the above are likely this quarter and all are material. 803 will only be progress reports and we won't know if it's commercial until early Q3 but the rest could be conclusive this qtr although I suspect we wait a little longer on B8 as historically licence renewal approval has taken some time but who knows. If there is a BNG shallows sale then what is the 'significant' value ? share price could fly if it's a great deal but could retrace if it reduces NAV. A5 is the most material news and side-track could be completed this quarter if they commence drilling and that's the most important result if successful as it would catapult the share price Yes, they have to do 90 day flow test but I suspect that they'll flow it for a period before testing.Theories re timing of the WS news ? Doing it now as there's likely to be good news in the near term which will limit the dilution (trough feed). They're continuing to stack up the share count so what are they doing this ? Surely it's because they know share price is going to rise ? They're Director bonus scheme is linked to m/cap, more shares in issue will increase m/cap if good news lands and the hype kicks in so they could exercise the bonus incentive ? Risks ? there are plenty when investing in Kstan and being majority owned by a Kazakh CP/WCP but those who have been invested here for years know the risks and have weathered many storms and are still here. They are possibly going to generate a large sum of money if the sell shallows and receive the CE cash, that could be hugely positive or negative dependant on values and what they do with the cash. I believe they're rushing WS through before releasing positive news and we're riding on the Oraziman clan's coat tails. Pure speculation but we've not got too long to find out.
Posted at 16/4/2024 11:00 by xclusive2
Thanks for your input Spangle, interesting. I suspect many shareholders are concerned re the latest proposed deal at West Shalva. Is it another 3AB deal wherby we suffered dilution and no ROI ? On the face of it it does look like another sweetheart deal but won't know until it's drilled. I'm not unhappy with their acquisition strategy but am unhappy with the structure of this deal. They could structure it completely differently without any immediate dilution apart from drilling commitments. Our Bolthazan is going to receive 200m shares or should I say the KO clan is and it could be a repeat of 3AB, there are no guarantees. Surely they should be waiting to see the outcomes from BNG shallows sale, CE deal and current drilling ? if positive then the share price will increase and that's the time to do the deal as it would be far less dilutive. The CP/WCP would be winning as the share price could be back to double figures but no, they're doing it now and it's another feed at the trough. They could've waited as the asset is available so why do it now ? I suspect that the BNG shallows deal is closer than we think, maybe B8 news too and the CE cash deal confirmation. I think they're rushing it through to max out their shareholding pre releasing positive news and to have prospective acreage at WS that COULD replace MJF.One thing I do know, they're going all in with building their shareholding so surely there has to be good news and an exit at some juncture. Could be the biggest bargain on AIM or the Casper saga will drag on, which is it ? we'll know very soon imo.
Posted at 10/4/2024 13:03 by maxim1999
I am not sure the company has a mechanism to dictate the share price. How could they keep the share price depressed to stop it running away from the 4 p strike? Moving on is there any point in going to the shareholder meeting? Whatever the strategy they deliver on the day won't be impacted by a few shareholders turning up and asking questions on it. My experience is the meetings are a complete waste of time. I met KO at a meeting where they mapped out an impressive 12 month plan of acquisition, testing , exploration, increased forecast production etc. He even showed a video on his phone of a flared well. That's was 7 years ago and production and share price are little changed.
Posted at 10/4/2024 10:29 by konil
the price action since the rns says it all.
management need to stop with lining their (and their family/mates) pockets with asset transfers and start delivering operational momentum at a reasonable pace.

for far too long operational progress has been snail like, difficult to justify with supposedly 5 rigs at their disposal.
would help if they stopped playing draughts with their rigs around the acreage...or is that just a convenient excuse, albeit with no logic, to explain lack of drilling progress.

with the meeting date set for 25th april, does that now mean no more op news till may? in any case they will be loathe to see the share price increase until they have finalised this latest pocket lining at 4p.

and the lower the share price gets they can later say the deal was done at a wonderful price for the company. or worse still they may reprice the deal at the lower share price and give themselves even more shares.

for me this latest asset transfer is a step too far and i'm looking for the door at opportune moment.

p.s. not that it matters a jot to the bod.
Posted at 19/2/2024 09:39 by xclusive2
Understandably, investors are hacked off, anyone would be with zippo return on their investment, especially those invested for years. The only winners maybe those who have successfully traded this but they are in the minority. Communication is poor and obfuscation is continuing as is the inconsistency from one RNS to the next but we can't change this as we are the minority players in this game but we do have a major role to play as we dictate the share price. Regardless of positive or negative news, the share price is dictated by supply and demand and the share price rarely equal real value, it's a representation of PI sentiment. Current m/cap is c £55m, when only a year ago the share price reached 8.6p and £195m. How do you justify that ? The rise to 8.6p was fuelled by 802 flowing, 142 result increasing shallowing production and the introduction of Divis which were not affordable. What is the correct valuation ? simple answer neither as it's down to good old sentiment and resulting supply and demand. Current sentiment is poor but why are PIs still here ? Many will probably be trapped and can't afford or don't want to realise a loss, many are still invested and they still believe that this is still a huge multi-bagging opportunity and are seeing that the assets are worth investing in. Could Caspian go to market and buy their current asset base for £55m ? The deep assets ie A block, NY & B8 , the shallows at MJF/SY and the Caspian Explorer. I don't believe they could but if the share price continues to stay down at these levels, maybe Penrith's concern of being taken Private will become a reality. Current PIs only represent 15% of this company, probably less now so it would only take £8m to wipe us out at this level. I don't subscribe to this outcome as I believe that KO would lose control of his little empire as there are predators that probably would clean him out and the real money will be made on share price appreciation not a private sake of asset base, I only see that in the disaster situation. KO knows that his best exit is via share price appreciation and he needs PIs to do that work but they need to get their finger out and start delivering !I stay invested to see them succeed with the deep conquest. They may never do it but currently they are funded by current production to continue the journey without dilution especially if CE cash lands and could be a continued source of considerable profit. They have made little progress over the last few months and that's down to current cash restraint, that's obvious. They took the divi cash which put them under cashier pressure, the sanctions have affected income inflow and they've gone through a busy period of drilling to meet licence commitments ie 802 and B8. They've made no progress on 803, 802 and A7 because they're managing cash and speed of progress will be dictated by prod income and CE cash so hopefully we see things progress at a faster pace. As stated, I'm staying invested to see them realise value from the deep assets and I'm hoping that it happens this year. 802 was meant to be highest COS, they got it to flow but the same old blockage ensued and now looking for a partner to assist. 803, will it be the same story ? A5, our best deep to date from prod flow rates but yet again the blockage issues. Will B8 be any different ? I don't know but 2 wells drilled and ready for testing so we'll know soon enough. 7 deeps to see conclusion this year providing they have the cash to facilitate the drilling. I'm sticking around to see if this leopard can change its spots.
Posted at 12/12/2023 10:12 by xclusive2
The share price is almost back to Covid/Riot/War levels where the risk to Caspian was the highest. Initially saved by the Ukraine war as oil prices retraced from the $17 low ! and a time where Caspian we're only receiving $6 for domestic or less. The geopolitical risk has diluted as Russia has enough on its plate but the imperial desires of our Putin will continue but we still have a few years before he starts looking at neighbours who weren't entirely supportive of his conquest (s). So at 2.6p our m/cap has crashed to c $55m and that is discounted from fundamental value based on the shallows only. They are/will generate c $25m pa from the current 2000 bopd dependent on oil pricing obviously. There is recoverable oil for at least 15 years yet the m/cap is $55m ? No value for CE or any of the deeps inc the latest acquisition ie Block 8. Allegedly we have found oil at all of the wells drilled with only one P&A at A8. They have the asset portfolio to send the share price on a multi-bagging journey but do they have the skills to deliver it themselves ? That is a question they need to answer very quickly because as of today, they've sunk well over $100m with zero return from the deep campaign. They have to decide to bring other players in to see if they can turn it around, not to do so is madness. They managed to flow A5 at healthy volumes for c 15 days, that would've galvanised their conviction that the oil is there and the 100s of millions boe are within reach. Sadly after many side-tracks they have come up empty so something has to change. Same at B8, if they fail there then it'll compound the fact that they can't deliver so let's get somebody else in and share the spoils.As of today, we are back in delayed news mode. Last update intimated that test results on B8 wells and 142 were imminent, that was 6 weeks ago. Maybe it's more problems and excuses, maybe they're successful and flowing the wells but history clearly shows that it's probably the latter. Personally, I believe that there will be some positive news in next RNS. Probably a mixed bag and anything positive will stop this downtrend. They have the CE cash for next year which is a considerable sum of money and if they continue to produce the paltry 2000bopd, they will turn over c$40m next year, that's without any drilling success whatsoever yet the m/cap is $55m. Hugely oversold imo but it's the PIs that dictate the price as they are the only ones trading it. 15% of the shareholder base dictate the share price and sentiment/credibility is surely lacking g as of today. Sp should be 5p+ as a minimum today and we all know how things can change with a little success. The long term investors will be jaded and cynical of this investment but the newbies with a non trainers outlook will have a different view.We're long overdue sone success, we still have the assets and the funds to exploit them, helped by the CE cash so we're still in the game. This is still a 20 bagger + from these levels and it will only take our first deep success to send this into silly season.One day Rodders, tick, tock :)
Caspian Sunrise share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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