Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[david56920] 15/7/2024 17:22

Zak mir on shatetalk in last hour going for 8p

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 16:14

Hi BM yes my mistake, fat fingers lol

You have reminded me I wanted to make an observation from the jpr 40 page report

They have forecast growing oil production in FY24 from 186k bopd pa to 586k bopd in FY28

It's very much a mini Roxi oil company playing a one string tune

Brokers are applying a 15x - 25x multiple on FY28 earnings to arrive at their $60 - 120m FY28 valuation

Makes a 4x multiple on our FY24 earnings look daft

Ok take a bit off because the market still has issues with Clive and delivery of promises but I think it's looking pretty extreme!

On the subject of delivery I think the market is being quite harsh on Clive

He has delivered back to back years of profit after tax $9m and $11m

He has recently delivered 700 bopd from well 155

He has delivered an oil trading company making $10m of sales with significant growth potential

He has delivered CE hire generating min $10m pa with further contracts under discussion

I think the market is crucifying Clive for some of his past poor results, but in the last 18 months he really seems to have upped his game

Tock tick tick ping #casp ;-)

[xclusive2] 15/7/2024 15:57

Or hopefully I'm wrong and it doesn't retrace before going again,BM, now Zeus Capital after acquisition and maybe Brendan's hot the boot. The other employees are still onboard.

[bluemango] 15/7/2024 15:05

No broker note from WH Ireland/Zeus Capital, yet.

Would be interesting to see one with a new target price.

[xclusive2] 15/7/2024 14:36

This is trading as expected. Next move ? I believe more of a retrace back to early 4ps as any day trader money exits but it will go again on expectation of near term news from a very busy operational schedule.As stated, if 803 was successful pre resumption of trading, you'd have seen a much higher rise but it would've been sold into as there has to be a 30 day flow test. Then it would go again when the test is well underway and other news like B8/815/W Shalva all moving forward.Todays trading has allowed some to take profits, exit entirely and for some he opportunity to average down again ! Difference this time, traders could be caught out by that 803 positive update but obviously there's a chance of a failure so investors have the decision to make, wait or commit. If 803 is a success it gains up significantly but if it fails, we could see mid 3ps again which is silly but possible and then peeps will load up as 803 drills on to TD and the hype builds again. Only way to break the rinse and repeat cycle is to release the company making news and there's plenty of assets that can oblige in Q3 starting with 803.Current market well bid at 700k max sell, 350k on the ask. Stupid spread at 4.57-4.88p, 4.72p mid but bid reduces to 4.315p at 300k. Will be interesting to see how this trades next few days but I'm hoping to see a few positive surprises .Got to be in it to win it :)

[bluemango] 15/7/2024 13:58

The New Norm posted this (by mistake?) on an old thread, worth copying here for those that didn't see it as it discusses the eps in relation to current share price:

The New Norm 15 Jul '24 - 11:21 - 3 of 3

Current share price is 10x FY23 EPS

Totally discounting barge income and well 155 700 bopd income

Factoring in above you get 1p EPS FY24

4x multiple FFS should be double digits if there wasn't a toxic cloud of disbelief hanging over Carver

With all the other things going on in H2 this has to re-rate signficantly soon...maybe 803, B8, WS and sale of shallows will be the catalyst once delivered

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 13:27

803 news on the interval test could come out later this afternoon, tomorrow, Wednesday

Is it flowing?

Is it flowing at commercial rates?

Positive news will be game changing and will be one or two bags on current SP

Question is are you in or out?

Let the FOMO begin ;-)

[bluemango] 15/7/2024 12:48

No, company announcements have pretty consistently referred to 155 as shallow. Quite apart from this from Friday which gives the target depth of 2,400 meters which is clearly 'shallow':

"Well 155 on the shallow MJF structure at the BNG Contract Area was spudded in Q1 2024 with a planned total depth of 2,400 meters. Drilling has been completed and oil detected over a 22 meter interval"

The wording you've found above is typical CASP, just sloppy wording.

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 11:21

Current share price is 10x FY23 EPS

Totally discounting barge income and well 155 700 bopd income

Factoring in above you get 1p EPS FY24

4x multiple FFS should be double digits if there wasn't a toxic cloud of disbelief hanging over Carver

With all the other things going on in H2 this has to re-rate signficantly soon...maybe 803, B8, WS and sale of shallows will be the catalyst once delivered

[xclusive2] 15/7/2024 10:46

5p triggered the sells and that's to be expected. Sellers? Profit takers, average downers in play but this will settle and go again.

[bluemango] 15/7/2024 10:04

Some will be buying purely for the prospect of a special dividend in H2 but there's also now a credible possibility of the share price moving into double figures and beyond over the same period; driven by developments including further drilling successes, CE and oil trading revenues etc.

Add in the increased probability now of a Trump Presidency in November with moves towards a peace deal in Ukraine and lifting of sanctions, and the future starts looking quite bright.

[spangle111] 15/7/2024 09:59

True, but only now really showing potential with all the developments proceeding and who knows what else on top. Very exciting times and this will build and build...

[bluemango] 15/7/2024 09:55

Now Advfn's highest riser in Toplists.

Should attract some new investors; been under the radar for far too long.

[jostrummer] 15/7/2024 09:52

Spread... 803 coming home?

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 09:49

Still looks a bargain at 4.5p when we look back from end H2!

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 09:40

BM

I think it will be same team covering CASP but hopefully they can 'zeus' up the share price where WHI didn't!!!

[bluemango] 15/7/2024 09:38

Thanks, missed that in all the excitement 🙂

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 09:35

BM it's one of the RNSs published today at 7am

WHI sales team acquired by Zeus today 15 July

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 09:34

Wonder how long Zeus Capital will take to produce comprehensive report with re-rate?

Suspect the need to know what's happening with 803, B8 and shallows sale before committing anything to print?

;-)

[bluemango] 15/7/2024 09:33

TNN

Can you give any more info re Zeus Capital please? Where did you find that they were going to initiate coverage? Presumably sticking with WH Ireland as nomad?

[jayrh] 15/7/2024 09:26

Casp playing into mms hands

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 09:25

Looks like market wants a 803 positive result before the big gap up or another big tree shake of the bored and fatigued old timers!

[togglebrush] 15/7/2024 09:19

BY my count for what it is worth
Daily trading Stats
since the Merger 01/06/2017 ...1,533 trading days

_________________Volume_______ Prices OHLC

Max_____________55,050,444 _____17.125 p
Top 1 percent___12,335,685 _____12.25
Q3 top quarter___1,730,452 ______9.125
Median_____________791,621 ______5.5
Q1 Low quarter_____343,709 ______3.15
'
R&OE

[the new norm] 15/7/2024 09:15

I can only buy up to 111 shares @ 4.5p at moment ;-)

Last of the big spenders lol

Spread closing though not so daft now!

Down it goes big sell at 4p