Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[spud] 02/8/2020 18:56

Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year. Are we getting super fixated by Covid-19...?spud

[whatsup32] 02/8/2020 16:24

Agree not expecting anything positive. Covid seems to be coming back and nothing but bad news in the media.

Hope I’m wrong

[wba1] 02/8/2020 16:03

I am a bit less positive about the upcoming announcements than some. It is traditional for new CEOs to kitchen sink any issues and blame their predecessors. Whilst I am not aware of any big unknown nasties, it is possible to build a very big pot to cover future plans (and problems) from flagging a few smaller matters (and, in current circumstances, being ultra cautious about virus effects and on regular matters such as booked loss ratios).

I may be doing Blanc an injustice, but if so she will be a very rare new CEO to miss such an opportunity (especially when the new Chair will also be looking to send a similar message about the past). It is all part of the game.

[pol123] 02/8/2020 13:07

Looking forward to hearing what our new CEO has to say. I'm interested in the strategy and hopefully the unlocking how AB plans to unlock value. Strategic direction is the most important aspect looking beyond the COVID bump in the road

IMHO one of the best FTSE opportunities for divi and growth

Can AB pull it off.....in my view, yes

[cjac39] 02/8/2020 11:55

It’s margins on margins with an extra margin. Scr is supposed to cover 1 in 200 yr disaster but then they insist on layers of safety above that. It is as you say a nonsense

[1robbob] 02/8/2020 11:11

Obviously the PRA does trust it's own Solvency requirements. If they do
it makes their dividend restraint 'request' earlier in the year, total nonesence.

What is the point of imposing a margin and then over-ruling it?

[eurofox] 02/8/2020 10:38

is it that high to facilitate a margin on sloppy underwriting?

[cjac39] 02/8/2020 10:12

There isn’t any particular science to the s2 margin. It’s a balance of keeping the PRA happy whilst (historically) being free as a board to pay dividends and manage the business without regulatory intervention.

It does jump around a bit as interest rates move as s2 has some stupid effects particularly the risk margin and the tmtp which are generally unhedged interest rate exposures that are entirely reg cap rather than economic capital.

But to answer your qn more directly there isn’t really a good reason why they have it so high. Honestly I think sometimes it’s a Look how big my margin is thing

[spud] 01/8/2020 12:01

Hold :)spud

[1robbob] 01/8/2020 11:56

Could somebody please explain why the AV target Solvency 11 rage is 160% - 180% whilst
most of the other quoted oompanies have targets of 130% to 160%?

[scobak] 01/8/2020 11:10

This is what I like to see. Reasoned arguments, no back biting or nastiness. This is really quite a civilised site. Thanks to all.

[cjac39] 31/7/2020 21:22

second wave is a total nonsense. if you try and dodge this and dont let it run through the population of course your susceptible numbers are high and you get more cases in future. but its not second wave; its the same area under the curve and all part of the natural flu type cycle. 60-80% pre existing immunity kills the epidemic.

second wave with spanish flu was a mutated disease that coronaviruses have no historic evidence of doing. plus they didnt have any therapeutics.

im sure edmundshaw will disagree with me.

ergo and back on aviva any negative sentiment in the price from second wave is a buying opportunity.

[hhhold2] 31/7/2020 20:01

On Thursday, Aviva PLC (LON:AV.) will deliver its interims following the promotion of industry veteran Amanda Blanc to CEO last month.

The company has seen its new sales and solvency ratio hit by the pandemic, however, it still managed a solid first quarter of trading with new life business increased 28% and general insurance sales up 3%, the second quarter has understandably seen more of a decline.

With the second quarter understandably being more difficult, investors are likely to eye more clarity on the extent of the impact as well as the company’s outlook for the rest of the year as second waves of the virus emerge around the world.

[hhhold2] 31/7/2020 18:49

Fiar value. That's for Spud

Honestly I believe Aviva is the best share in the Ft100.

PE is so low also

New lady in to sweep clean so expecting more good news going forward after a while but with covid you know everything is uncertain at the moment

It went to little over £2 a while back and if it could go that low again I would be filling my boots as I missed my chance last time. My fault!

I wish all shareholders all the best and I'm sure they will be rewarded long term although short term I hope from a selfish point of view it returns to new lows soon.

No offence meant but if you don't capitalise on your opportunities then you haven't done your best.

I can imagine shareholders are annoyed at the share price but that's there choice to hold and sell as they choose. All the best

[dbadvn] 31/7/2020 18:00

Grahamburn,

Whenever I have been involved in court cases I have found that the issues, precedents etc may have been pedantic , worded in a complex way or just plain badly written . I have never encountered anything that the average person with effort could not comprehend.

What I have encountered is a condescending legal profession structured in such a way that they make as much money as possible whilst frequently handing ofF the work to “paralegalR21; assistants, delaying work for no comprehensible reason other than their own convenience or preference and a complete lack of urgency in every aspect.

The judges are at the peak of this system and allow it to continue unchecked to the point where it is really impossible for the ordinary person to seek justice in the courts due to exorbitant and unjustified cost involved.

So we will have to agree to disagree. In my view M’lud is guilty as charged.

[cyberian] 31/7/2020 17:46

Agree...she has a lot to play with imho, and better get a grip pdq. Get the various departments better run, provide value/service and the bottom line will grow fast....no excuses. She may need a little more time to put everything in place but the new direction must be clear and given next week..no half baked promises or the Institutions will show their hand more aggressively.

[1robbob] 31/7/2020 17:37

cyberian
Before someone else says it!!
Those NTA and NAV comparisons make it quite clear that AB has to earn a much
better return on assets - or sell them to someone else who can; clear and simple

[cyberian] 31/7/2020 16:47

Unless I am wrong Av. is selling on a NTA of 80% and NAV of 56%, whereas LGEN is on 1.39 premium, and 1.36 premium, and RSA 1.34 premium, and 1.03 premium...so take your pick on fair value.

[spud] 31/7/2020 16:34

This should be good rob! He struggled to spell it, let alone explain it...spud

[1robbob] 31/7/2020 16:27

hhhold2
I would be interested in your calculation of Fair Value?

[hhhold2] 31/7/2020 16:10

Hopefully no divi, profits lower than expected & uncertainty for the near future should help drop this nicely and then this might be fair value for new investors,

[cyberian] 31/7/2020 15:30

Crazy share price action when compared to LGEN, RSA, and others in the sector...the new CEO needs to rally the troups...action not idle words...confidence in the future strategy/plans...no woolly stuff. Thanks

[grahamburn] 31/7/2020 15:30

I am not a lawyer, but some of the simplistic comments above about a highly contentious matter such as business interruption insurance during a pandemic resemble a decision about choosing which main dish to have from a menu in a (now open) restaurant.

The issues surrounding wording and interpretation are far too complex for the average - or even above average - person to comprehend.

The judgement will have huge ramifications for insurers and the insured alike which is why the FCA has effectively intervened to bring a number of typical and atypical situations (eg cases) to the courts for a decision, rather than having myriad of cases.

In short, the judges, having heard the arguments in court, will now need to refer to tomes of legal documents and case law. It's not like speed reading even War & Peace - it's many times more pages, together with cross references.

At the end of the marathon, they will wish to make their judgement as watertight as possible in an attempt to forestall further delays through ongoing appeals.

So, please just accept that the legal process works slowly for a reason and not for the benenfit of the system.

[1robbob] 31/7/2020 09:03

A message to Amanda Blanc

Commencing with next weeks' Interim Announcement will you please start a new
era at Aviva by communicating in plain english, stating a clear and concise view of the companys current trading, future prospects and strategies. Obviously, at this particular time, this should include an unequivical statement on dividend policy

Despite being one of the largest Insurance Companies in the world, Aviva has for far too long been 'behind the eight ball'. This is not acceptable, it should be seen to be leading the Industry rather than just reacting.

Thank you Amanda

[cjac39] 31/7/2020 08:29

that seems a bit harsh. its very complicated and very impactful and there are probably thousands of precedent cases. either way it will be a fascinating read when it comes out.

im still amazed how insurers trade in lock step with banks on red days. im convinced its programmed quant funds that think that they are similarly levered plays on risk assets despite them not being subject to any of the same mtm accounting rules. as a result i added materially to all my ins positions yday esp jrp and l&g