Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[whatsup32] 20/7/2020 17:10

Sounds fairly positive , backs what’s been suggested here in that worse us behind us

[pvi1] 20/7/2020 11:50

Covid is the reason we are in the 2 quid range and not 4 quid. Don't bury yer head

[pvi1] 20/7/2020 11:45

It obviously works because if everyone isolates then the virus cannot spread and will die out. Simple really, but there's been no.real lockdown

[cjac39] 20/7/2020 09:45

but i agree with 1 robbob.

returning to fca case i think its quite problematic at a fairly basic level. as i understand UK insurance and when it gets tested its highly specific and based very specifically on precise policy wording. the fca is seeking to group different policies with quite varied wording and define some principles on which they fail.

wba again will know more than me but i don't think this is how insurance works in the UK and therefore the whole premise of it looks troubled to me.

you are talking about multiple different business types with different policy wordings and i don't see how you can group across them. attack one insurer at a time with one set of policyholders, say retail shops, and you can then test their specific wordings but you cant group different policies like this.

it will be interesting for sure to see how it unfolds though.

[cjac39] 20/7/2020 09:29

i thought you said if we and i took that to mean we the UK so yes you did. look at the data. not the headlines. not the garbage epidemic models. data. gradient of UK (and btw every country everywhere) was in decline before lockdown. ergo and with some basic maths lockdown did not affect the decline in deaths. the lack of susceptible people did. its so obvious if you just look at the data.

how can you say it obviously works. you cannot stop the spread of an incredibly virulent virus. it flows through the population in the same way as a common cold. it was here in January flowing through and by march its job was nearly done and post fact we decided that a lockdown would stop the natural course of an infectious disease.

its just such garbage i think we all need our heads examined if we buy 1 iota of it.

US is still in its first wave so lets wait and see what the data there brings. but the quality of data reporting in us is highly variable and the weird biases from over reporting and paying hospitals to report covid cases makes it much harder to compare.

[1robbob] 20/7/2020 09:24

Can we return to AV. rather than a general Covid discussion

[pvi1] 20/7/2020 09:14

The UK lockdown has worked though. It obviously works. If you don't give a virus the opportunity to spread then it will die out. It'sreally that simple

[pvi1] 20/7/2020 09:10

I neer mentioned the UK

[cjac39] 20/7/2020 08:35

nonsense

sweden 549.24 per million. uk 678.59. so uk lockdown really worked?

but this is based on reported deaths and as we now know reported deaths is inconsistent globally

[pvi1] 20/7/2020 08:02

Swedens death rate is 30% higher than America by population size. It's impossible to say what would happen if we or the US took the same approach. The conspiracy loonies are having a field day though

[cjac39] 20/7/2020 07:44

lockdown did nothing. all you need do is compare death data from hard lockdown to light lockdown countries. you cannot ignore swedens death curve vs uk locked down curve.

the rate of change in deaths was falling from pre lockdown. ie not exponential and more gompertz.

its all in the data. not predictive statistical models that fail when tested against data.

but we could have shielded the carehomes rather than posting covid cases into them and reduced nosocomial infections.

[edmundshaw] 19/7/2020 23:20

Sorry for the off-topic, that is my last post on the subject. What is actually being done and will probably happen is relevant here, not what we think should have happened...

[edmundshaw] 19/7/2020 23:19

cjac I am aware of all the points you have listed. Some of them are speculative and unproven, as you will know. I cannot of course answer every point of a Gish Gallup list like that, but it is a disappointingly biased list..

In my view and it is now starting to be heard, the lockdown should have started a week earlier. It could then have stopped two weeks sooner or more (the R number being well above one acclererates the disease far more thean an R rate of around 0.8 retracts it). But the lockdown has been terribly managed. The health service should be running near normal now and it isn't and that will cause more deaths from non-Covid causes than have been caused by the disease itself. Basically if you need a sigmoidoscopy, or other cancer tests, or heart treatment, or proper help for many other diseases, you are far more likely not to get it or not get it it in time.

The authorities have got it horribly wrong and unfortunately have listened to the wrong people. Some epidemiologist from University College is not an expert in the real world. Even the better ones from Oxbridge, or top universities in Europe, cannot synthesise all the factors. They find things out with models. Models are inherently very simplified and in these cases (as in much of economics) only useful in understanding patterns, growth rates etc.. To understand the total effect of a lockdown would take forever, a good model would take a decade or more - like climate modelling... but we did not have that.

As for whether "herd immunity" would or can work, we still do not know that as we do not even know how long any immunity will last.

[cjac39] 19/7/2020 22:59

Gosh it’s complicated. I’ve read first 100 pages of fca claim and I’m not sure. Really seems weak on causation but I’m just not legally informed enough to comment

[cjac39] 19/7/2020 20:44

I wouldn’t like to comment too much yet as I’d like to read fca submission as well to get a more balanced view.

Hiscox one is a great read and demolition but I’d like to check what they are demolishing first.

Anyway don’t listen to me on this stuff - wba for sure is way better qualified.

However suffice to say I was going to have good look at some general insurers next week to see if any residual bargains

Off topic but FYI I loaded up a ton of JRP shares last week as I think there is seller and they are the only life insurer still trading impaired.

[eurofox] 19/7/2020 20:22

Couldn't agree more cjac39. By the way, did you have any further reflections on the high court submissions of the defendants in the FCA case?

[cjac39] 19/7/2020 19:42

Haha I’m sure they know but politically I think having scared everyone so much it doesn’t play out well being seen to be cavalier and pro economy rather apparently than cautious and pro health.

This has been such an epic failure of science as given by stupid epidemiologists and medics that I’m fearful truth will never out.

I can only recommend as many people as possible look at work done by Michael levitt or some of the you tubes by fat emperor or unherd.

Basic data available in feb / mar could have prevented lockdown nonsense like Sweden had the foresight to avoid despite mainstream media attacking the correct path

[spud] 19/7/2020 19:36

All the decisions taken since the u turn on herd immunity have been politically driven - It’s not what’s safest and best for the tax paying populous but rather what will play best politically and thereby earn a second term.

spud

[dbadvn] 19/7/2020 19:04

Cj,

You need to have a word with BJ !!

Thanks

[cjac39] 19/7/2020 18:51

oh and i also forgot to comment on asymptomatic point.

[cjac39] 19/7/2020 18:43

i forgot to add that weak flu seasons in 18 and 19 in all countries that had greater excess mortality from covid correlates very nicely. that is susceptible population was increased as they didnt get taken by flu in last 2 winters.

[cjac39] 19/7/2020 16:33

This is probably not the place to have a detailed discussion but maybe a few comments:
- all acute respiratory diseases be it flu or corona viruses can cause the sort of damage we have seen with covid
- the mortality outcome year to date is only the fourth worse in the last 18 years
- 294 people under the age of 60 have died without comorbidities
- 90% of spreading is by 10% of infected people
- when your immune system is in tact like in children, younger people and healthy older people you fight the virus off more readily and have a lower viral load
- but many people have innate immunity from previous corona viruses that prevent it taking hold
- previous immunity explains why asia hasn’t had it bad and also explains why it was never exponential anywhere in the world
- because of innate immunity and resistance in people the likely saturation point is miles below the theoretical modelled nonsense of 60% and likely 15-20%
- Lon seroprevalence is there already so a second wave is very unlikely.
- but there are still susceptible people out there so maybe a few cases next season but no epidemic

[edmundshaw] 19/7/2020 16:17

"its only bad cases that shed high loads and super spread"

Where did you get that from? Evidence is that asymptomatic COVID-2 shed TWICE as much virus.

I have looked at a LOT of data, and I have no idea what the future holds. But COVID-2 is not "just flu", I thought that trope disappeared when we started seeing nearly a thousand people a day dying from it in the UK, and the various types of organ damage it can cause to people who survive.