Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[eurofox] 28/7/2020 09:15

thanks for that wba1

[1robbob] 28/7/2020 09:14

Further re Sabre
To be totally clear Special Dividend announced is stated as 'the deferred 2019 Special Dividend'

[wba1] 28/7/2020 09:04

Very interesting half year figures from Sabre this morning. Not had time to look too closely but the key points seem to be;

* dividend + special dividend (to reduce solvency ratio!) declared
* 9% reduction in accident year loss ratio from 64 to 55% at half year.
* Effect of accident year reduction reduced in financial figures by lower prior year releases. Not sure how much both accident year reserving and prior year releases have been 'CEO massaged' to avoid excess profit and seeming exploitative.
* Just renewed reinsurance for year (unusual renewal date in June)with flat rate. Good news for reinsurance pricing on motor but irrelevant for other classes.
* increase in expense ratio. Cause given as increase in fees and effect of lower premiums earned in H1. I would expect the current claims environment to temper further fee increases for a while.

Generally a pretty decent half year. Sabre have probably been more affected than others on the expense line. The accident year loss ratio is in line with expectations and the dividend approach is a useful message for the wider market.

[1robbob] 28/7/2020 08:52

A few weeks ago there were several brilliant posts on Aviva's exposure to Corvid.
To avoid any over reaction or concern. It would be very helpful if those who know
about these matters would post their, after re-insurance, 'Worst Case Senarios' should the FCA court case go against the Insurers

[spud] 28/7/2020 08:48

Banks only.spud

[1robbob] 28/7/2020 08:46

The ECB dividend ban recommendation applies to Banks only

[mountpleasant] 28/7/2020 08:18

ECB extends dividend ban into 2021

[p0pper] 28/7/2020 06:12

I didn't think Aviva had enough Covid related claims to worry about though?

[carpingtris] 27/7/2020 21:33

And if they don't judge pro insurance?

I hold but am not adding any further until more clarity.

As mentioned fingers crossed!

[whatsup32] 27/7/2020 21:19

It should prove to be more active next week with results and court decision .

Should courts judgment be pro insurance , I can’t see huge justification to not pay full dividends held back.

[1robbob] 27/7/2020 19:48

RSA on 30th July
Legal & General on 5th August
Hopefully they will both set a positive precident....fingers crossed

[whatsup32] 27/7/2020 19:06

Results August 6th . Fingers crossed

[1robbob] 27/7/2020 16:15

A light hearted comment...or perhaps not!!
I have never understood how a Chart ever changes direction. If everyone believed - shares would either go to zero on the downside or infinity on the upside

[pvi1] 27/7/2020 15:59

Have you rolled some chicken bones. It's far more accurate

[hhhold2] 27/7/2020 15:41

Chart is looking ugly, hopefully this will soon be below £2.

[whatsup32] 27/7/2020 13:00

Dr Biotech , thank you . I guess in two weeks we should have judgment

[cjac39] 27/7/2020 08:53

Agreed. Whether it’s aviva or general index level future path of this is intrinsic but past actions not.

I think medically you are correct but I think we are destined to disagree On the epidemiology until the data is in mid next year. My view of the data says no second wave in countries like U.K. and Spain but certainly a few local flare ups where prevalence below 15-20%.

[dr biotech] 27/7/2020 08:46

The business interruption case was scheduled to last 8 days, starting last Monday. My understanding is that it will conclude on Thursday (court doesn’t sit on Fridays) so hopefully by the end of this week.

[edmundshaw] 27/7/2020 08:20

I think future expectations for COVID are very much affecting most parts of the stock market. Discussions on past lockdown strategy is not, I will grant.

Deaths are not up (much) for two reasons, one is they trail infections by two weeks, the other is that doctors are getting better at treating the damn thing.

Have a look at the cases graph for Australia. Two large humps looks a lot like two waves to me...

[1robbob] 27/7/2020 07:45

I have very much enjoyed reading the expertise of others on this BB.
But has the BB been hijacked by those wishing to display, at some length, their personal Covid expertise!!
Especially as none of the authors make any attempt to link their theories
to likely implications for Aviva
Surely there are plenty of BBs specifically for this subject?

[cjac39] 27/7/2020 06:38

you are conflating two different things. in spain and france and the uk it hasnt gone for sure but is in basal phase as we head through the summer. and yes more testing is finding more cases but show me the increase in hospital / death outcomes?

in southern hemispheres and those countries that deferred it by mental lockdown its part of the first curve. you cant avoid this as you cant avoid any seasonal flu. its going to come back in aus or nz despite everyone congratulating them on their apparent success because they just pushed out their first wave till later.

[whatsup32] 26/7/2020 19:15

Are we expecting any news on the court case?. It was supposed to finish Friday,