Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[eurofox] 30/7/2020 09:37

topped up at 267.6

[cjac39] 30/7/2020 09:32

yes quite punchy from RSA who must be more exposed than av by some distance. also interesting to see hastings getting taken out. hardening rates must surely bring opportunistic capital out. unfort Aviva is too much of a slumbering giant to succumb to this but a rising tide should help.

[hhhold2] 30/7/2020 09:31

2nd wave here, this will hopefully soon see £2.

[cyberian] 30/7/2020 09:13

Need to stay calm in these markets and be more rationale in ones approach...RSA results were pretty good, and like AV. they had signaled that dividends would be held up understandably imo. They likewise suspended their latest dividend intention in April for 2019. We now need to look at capital appreciation and other company initiatives in the near term with much stronger balance sheets, excellent cash-flow the envy of many other sectors. Dividend available will accumulate but in the meantime with such low P/E ratios one should look for safety and asset appreciation...sad news for those like me who depend on the dividend, but a fall of the share price can be far greater than any dividend. One really needs to see what our new CEO plans for AV. future strategy, and like Hester at RSA I am sure that one will be rewarded.

[1robbob] 30/7/2020 08:53

So RSA expect to have resumed Dividends by the end of February, which is when their Full Year Results are announced

Also, in calculating their Solvency 11 Ratio they allow financially for the deferred(not cancelled) 2019 Final and 2020 interim dividends.

[edmundshaw] 30/7/2020 08:48

From the Daily Telegraph today:

Rapid test would be 'life-changer', says top WHO doctor

A rapid test that can detect coronavirus within minutes will be a "life-changer", and may be available before the end of the year, an expert has said.

The current tests being used in the UK are PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests, and while most people get their results within 24 hours, it can take up to 72 hours.

But David Nabarro, who is one of the World Health Organisation's (WHO) special envoys on Covid-19, says a test that delivers results in minutes is essential in order to live with the virus.

He said lockdown is a "crude" way of dealing with the spread and more sophisticated measures are needed.

--------------------

This is the sort of thing I was talking about earlier. Cheap quick tests that spot if you are currently infectious rather than if you have ever had the virus is exactly what we need to get moving again while getting the R rate right down.

There are businesses that can already do this test, they just haven't mass produced it because governments wanted the super accurate tests that are really pretty useless as too expensive for everyone to take on a daily basis.

[dr biotech] 30/7/2020 07:10

Snippet from RSA today

“Consistent with the 2019 final dividend suspension in April, an interim dividend for 2020 is not presently being announced. RSA expects to resume dividends as soon as judged prudent, which absent unforeseen events should be by the time of full year results 2020. We also aim to catch up on missed dividend payments over time consistent with prudent capital management.”

[hhhold2] 29/7/2020 11:27

fool punting this & no end of other 100 shares probably to allow their pals to exit before another markets crash,

fool some of the people some of the time I suppose,

glug glug.

[1robbob] 29/7/2020 08:52

An article in todays Daily Telegraph suggests that the PRA is considering allowing Banks to pay Dividends from 2021...but not in respect of 2020!

Hopefully as the stoppage of Insurance Divdends was a 'recommendation' only, Insurance Companies will be allowed to pay dividends in respect of 2020 AND those deferred from 2019.

A positive move nonetheless

[wba1] 28/7/2020 22:09

When looking at legal cases involving insurance I always think back to my involvement with the case in the late 90s which changed the discount rate from assuming a reasonable spread of investment risk to an assumption of taking no risk. I was motor director for L&E at the time and we won unanimously in the Court of Appeal (which held that claimants lump sum awards should be based on investing with a reasonable spread of risk). Unfortunately we then lost unanimously in the House of Lords (this being pre Supreme Court).

If top judges can produce such diverging views on a relatively simple matter what chance is there that the current cases will be resolved swiftly and conclusively?

[whatsup32] 28/7/2020 18:45

Sees Aviva as a buy. Unfortunately from fools.com

[leedslad001] 28/7/2020 17:07

Not interested at all

[mo123] 28/7/2020 15:49

If you are interested in charts. Too many ifs for me.

hxxps://capital.com/aviva-share-price-prediction

[whatsup32] 28/7/2020 14:04

Every dog has its day , surely this dogs time has arrived.

[cjac39] 28/7/2020 12:09

i also find it unlikely that a judgement could come anytime soon unless its a failed process. there are some v technical, complicated and material concepts at play together with tens of different contracts. it seems to me quite difficult to imagine a judge will cut across all of this and rule. even if they did it would be challenged. maybe there are a few points that could be scored but i really struggle with it overall and dont expect anything meaningful too quickly.

but its also not that relevant to aviva directly except if the losses in this were high then more repricing would go on so prob beneficial over next few years

[1robbob] 28/7/2020 11:37

Agree that a clear cut decision is unlikely...another FCA success!!!
>> Legal fees could be higher than Aviva's exposure..
???
Aviva are not directly involved in the FCA case
Legal Fees will fall to the Re-insurer?

[dbadvn] 28/7/2020 11:30

Cannot believe there will be a quick or clear cut judgement. A single statement cannot cover all of the multitude wordings etc in insurance contracts. So I expect a fudge followed by multiple cases and appeals from both sides . In good old British legal tradition it could go on for years and the only ones to gain will be the lawyers . Legal fees could be higher than Aviva's exposure..

[spud] 28/7/2020 11:08

A positive dividend announcement could very easily have us in the mid £3s in fairly short order imo. spud

[eurofox] 28/7/2020 10:58

In fact an adverse judgement across the board could benefit Aviva, because it has competitors in far worse positions and such a judgement for them could seriously damage any competitive threat they might pose to Aviva. The most likely outcome will then tend to be a push for hardening of premiums across the board - how can that not be good for Aviva, especially given its current balance sheet strength.

[1robbob] 28/7/2020 10:50

cjac39
Are you saying that the maximum liability 'worst case' is circa £200m? excluding any offsets

If so: This only represents circa 6% of 2019 Pre Tax Profits and circa 4p per share
Puts the loss of the 21.4p 2019 final dividend in perspective.

An adverse FSA Judgement would undoubtedly effect sector sentiment...but, it is not that big a deal for Aviva

[cjac39] 28/7/2020 10:15

the main points on covid are net retention max in UK of £150mln and cad $50mln. offsets in UK from other lines though so not massive

[wba1] 28/7/2020 09:48

1robbob;
thanks, I should have included that. The significance is the obvious relaxation about the solvency ratio, with concerns having seemingly vanished over the last few months. Having said that, the Sabre numbers are only a read across guide to motor accounts elsewhere and they are also unusual in only holding UK gilts, cash and a small level of investment grade corporate bonds - so less affected by capital impacts.

One other small clarification. When I said fee increases should be tempered I was referring to the MIB levy ( a fee based on premium income which is paid annually by all motor insurers to fund the Motor Insurers Bureau, which picks up the tab for uninsured claims and some claims involving foreign drivers). The claims environment should have depressed their liabilities as with other motor insurers so I would expect them not to need more increases in the next period.

[gary1966] 28/7/2020 09:32

Ban has been extended by 2 months only until 1st Jan, hence the 2021 headline. Will be reviewed in the 4th Qtr. Not a biggie. Our banks are better capitalised than EU ones?