Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[cjac39] 08/5/2020 17:52

I still come back to av being caught up in the crosshairs of being decent enough size that hedge funds can use it as quick short proxy for European financials plus divi cut meaning it’s beaten up more than most. It’s so obviously undervalued but I’m sceptical that someone will take them out with their slightly odd mix of businesses. Unfort I think we need to wait for stronger board driving more value but a divi restart would act as a decent short term catalyst and confirmation like rsa that their reinsurance is effective and limiting the losses. Along with m and g this is still my favourite pick for most beaten up with most upside to come

[whatsup32] 08/5/2020 17:35

RSA results


March to April covid related claims is expected to be £25m net of reinsurance that includes travel ins. Claims gross£16m . Business interruption £17m

These covid claims seems negligible to me compared to savings in expected Auto and home insurance claim reduction.

I get the feeling Aviva has been unfairly beaten down and will only blame management for lack of communication

[whatsup32] 08/5/2020 17:18

Thanks Spud.

26th May annual general meeting. Are we expecting guidance on covid then or before that date.

hxxps://www.rsagroup.com/news/press-releases/2020/rsa-q1-2020-trading-update/
RSA results from yesterday

[salver2] 08/5/2020 15:42

Perfectly put wba a nobrainer at this price a bargain on all levels especially as a break up candidate - as you say the only elephant in the room is something nasty to affect the balance sheet that is not obvious at the present time

[salver2] 08/5/2020 15:42

Perfectly put wba a nobrainer at this price a bargain on all levels especially as a break up candidate - as you say the only elephant in the room is something nasty to affect the balance sheet that is not obvious at the present time

[salver2] 08/5/2020 15:41

Perfectly put wba a nobrainer at this price a bargain on all levels especially as a break up candidate - as you say the only elephant in the room is something nasty to affect the balance sheet that is not obvious at the present time

[wba1] 08/5/2020 15:10

gekko

nothing wrong investing elsewhere ( I still have options and rsu's in Allianz and rate them a good investment) but you seem to have a narrow approach. Most insurers have recovered circa 30% from the bottom whilst Aviva have come back about 20%. With the much lower valuation based on price to book, and the lesser recovery, either Aviva has more to come than your choices or they risk being taken out. And, as I have pointed out before, Axa is an odd choice as the weakest of the big global insurers. Any of Allianz, Zurich or even Generali have more potential. The only other possibility is that I have overlooked a big black hole somewhere in Aviva that does not exist in other major insurers. Please enlighten me if this is the case.

If you are holding to trade short term good luck - you may be right. If you have a longer horizon you seem to be emotionally driven.

[gekko27] 08/5/2020 13:17

I’m not a fellow investor, I dumped these and split it between AXA and Allianz, now up nicely and still paying dividends. Enjoy this rubbish, idiot.

[dr biotech] 08/5/2020 12:51

Hmm was it worth creating a new avatar to post that gecko?

[neophytos] 08/5/2020 12:32

gekko

How nice of you to call fellow investors "idiots". Get many people turn up at your birthday parties? Don't blame all the past absences on COVID.

neo.

[gekko27] 08/5/2020 11:38

What a dreadful company. In terminal decline (like the rest of the U.K. in general) a dividend trap and nothing else, zero growth and poorly managed, and for you poor idiots dreaming of the dividend you’d be better moving to l and g, when this restarts it will be rebased, shares lucky if they stay above 250, a dog.

[dbadvn] 08/5/2020 11:27

Seems that wb and cj between them using their skill and experience have identified pretty much the issues with Aviva, high cor, and A cultural focus on share .

Maybe someone should tell the board ?

[cjac39] 08/5/2020 11:10

i presume av will provide mkt update ahead of the agm 26/5 which should be interesting and maybe a near term catalyst

[cantrememberthis2] 08/5/2020 11:00

Does a £58m impairment for COVID19 (approx) justify £208m drop in share price?

[eurofox] 08/5/2020 10:59

I must say, I'm really enjoying the high quality discussion on this thread by those far more knowledgeable about the industry than myself. Thank you all.

[cjac39] 08/5/2020 09:14

looks solid and shows clearly how ins works as a capital allocation, mean reverting business. these companies can withstand large events and ins just reprices to restore the return on capital. indeed, the best years to invest in ins are right after a massive events as rates harden above the economic ret on capital required. even though av has poor track record on share price delivery the divi will be restored (exec bonuses are linked to it) and even if thats 25p say the market cannot ignore a 10% div yield from a ftse100 company thats sustainable. phnx is trading nearer 8% albeit with a cleaner simpler business and a decent ceo. closing that yield gap alone is meaningful uptick in av share price

[chambersiain] 08/5/2020 08:46

Any views on Munich Re recent Q1 update?

hxxps://www.reinsurancene.ws/munich-res-q1-profit-falls-as-covid-19-losses-reach-e800mn/

[whatsup32] 07/5/2020 21:40

cjac39
Thank you. A little more clearer now. I wonder why Aviva is not achieving 92/93 cor . I understood they were cutting costs drastically to improve returns . Is it possible they are not pricing risk better .

I was disappointed with Maurice’s appointment when it was announced. Given board knew of his capabilities they extended their search further leaving me with the impression we got second or third choice of candidate. Would like to see someone with entrepreneurial skills specially now given opportunities.

[wba1] 07/5/2020 21:02

Thanks cjac, you have put it very clearly. I think the need to reduce COR is made more urgent by the reduced investment returns. And, for a short while, the average length of holding claims reserves will shorten with fewer injury claims in motor and liability, reducing returns even further. Of course, any action taken now (other than immediate action on admin expenses or sales costs) will only be felt in 2022 given the earnings pattern on GI.

[cjac39] 07/5/2020 20:30

WBA’s point is the operating in return here is lower than others with which I agree. If you’re going to be in this business you should be 92/93 cor rather than almost 97/98 aviva

[cjac39] 07/5/2020 20:28

Based on what you’ve said I think you get more of this whatsup.

Combined operating ratio or COR is the metric by which general insurers measure success. Eg get 100 of premium in and pay out 60 of claims = 60% operating claims. Costs between 30-40% then on sales commissions and admin and you have cor of 90-100. Add in float return ie cash you hold that gets invested albeit at close to zero now and you net out to COR.