Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[cjac39] 29/4/2020 22:26

what is interesting is how they go from here. the best capital allocators from today would now use this opportunity to buy as i am. the more defensive cos use it to be passive in line with mkt. if aviva choose the passive road it will be telling

[cjac39] 29/4/2020 22:15

they aren't finished on losses so not definitive. will take a few more weeks to trickle through but i guess close to all

[whatsup32] 29/4/2020 21:25

cjac.

Did they say why they are shy about giving market more information?. Others in same sector have.

[salver2] 29/4/2020 20:48

And thank you also wba!

[salver2] 29/4/2020 20:48

Thanks Cjac most interesting and sort of fits with my feelings without having any of your obvious experience in these matters

[wba1] 29/4/2020 20:29

Thanks cjac. For completeness I would say £4bn for UK general (as I said before £3bn would be a rock bottom conservative figure) and not far short of that for the overseas general business (Canada would be interesting to several players for its market position as well as the pure financials - could give someone a very strong position if added to an existing smaller operation). So I would say a minimum of £7 bn for general in total. Add that to your 15 and the other bits and the sum of parts comes to well in excess of twice the current share price - so I agree £4 seems reasonable even allowing for a pretty steep discount from the sum of parts valuation.

[cjac39] 29/4/2020 19:16

i caught up with them. key takeaways:
- cad$50 confirmed net retention
- uk net retention £150 in commercial
- predominantly reinsured by swiss and munich. top 5 client of both. dont expect any arguments and 2 week reinsurance liquidity
- no direct bi risk in uk policies - “known diseases only”
- some indirect exposure through marsh, ajg etc but limited and covered by above reins limit
- ocg, debt reduction, cost reduction on track with minimal slippage. cashflow forecast maybe delayed if cash trapped in fr, pol cos
- travel now positive as no one going on holiday. other areas positive
- life at worse a wash maybe positive
- stand by guidance on divi returning and note bonuses of exec linked to restarting divi

my own take: ive done some more investigating on sotp of uk life business inc platform and aviva investors. i can get to 6 for annuity book, 2 for ul book, 1 for grp pen / protection, 1.5 for aviva investors and 2 for heritage share of wp. add in its #1 or #2 franchise in all above so goodwill 1.5 say its 15 for uk life and assets. plus general plus overseas life less sub debt and all day long this is worth nearly £4

[imagining] 29/4/2020 19:09

And the resultant lockdown mini baby-boom in approx. 9mnths time will surpass the coronavirus (and indirect) deaths in all probability. These newborns have a life expectancy of something like 85yrs.Generally,most Covid-19 deaths are of persons likely to perish shortly anyway.Let's look at things objectively and in an unblinkered, unmelodramatic way occasionally!

[whatsup32] 29/4/2020 18:59

No mention of Aviva ....phew

[yf23_1] 29/4/2020 18:58

salver2

IMO it looks like a descending triangle from late March which we have just broken out from. Also good volumes from the 210-270 range, which currently at 260p should provide a strong base for a 270p resistance breakout.

[salver2] 29/4/2020 18:10

The point being that one should try to buy a reasonable company at a reasonable price - in aviva case I think it’s a reasonable co at a very cheap price- hedge fund managers and fund managers have access to all these charts and techniques yet ninety percent underperform the index - every day we are hit with headlines such as the man who forecast the 2008 crash says the Dow Jones will go down 40 percent - if he said the Dow Jones would fall or rise 5 percent which Isa far more likely scenario no one would read the article - he’s never right and what’s more virtually no one ever predicts a crash - extreme headlines provide fuel for the gullible - a bit like the coronavirus - did you know there are more suicides in India in a year than people who have died of coronavirus - the lockdown will kill more people with cancers heart disease and suicide!

[paulof2] 29/4/2020 17:41

Spot on salver if you’re trading commodities fair play use the charts but if you’re trying to use charts in the current situation to predict shares think you are ridiculously stupid.

Time and time again I see people claiming the next big resistance level is x and it sails through without batting an eye. How can you use charts now when the market hasn’t experienced anything like this before and is incredibly sensitive to any old news story.

Just for completeness he also suggested WH Smith would certainly be retesting it’s lows (up 22% since)

[uppompeii] 29/4/2020 17:04

Aviva lagging behind as usual.

[barnesian] 29/4/2020 16:36

What a finish!

[whatsup32] 29/4/2020 16:13

One decent announcement from Aviva and this should have a very nice clime above £3

[ftime] 29/4/2020 15:25

Barclays have shot up 13% today off the back of their statement hopefully we get a similar outcome mid-late May

[xamf] 29/4/2020 14:58

Topped up again in advance of next months trading statement. This is a core holding for me.

[pvi1] 29/4/2020 14:25

Out at 256. Had some good trades in this and LGEN over the last couple of weeks

[eurofox] 29/4/2020 14:14

another short squeeze?

[wba1] 29/4/2020 09:13

Worth looking at 2 announcements this morning. Firstly Hiscox. They may claim to be financially robust but they would not be looking at a fund raise if they had not concluded their exposure is much greater than disclosed in earlier announcements. I wonder if they may look to sell off bits of the operation? Secondly, Next. Not relevant to Aviva business except that the announcement is an excellent example of market disclosure, giving not only the headlines but also the detail of how the lockdown is affecting their business, including a sensitivity analysis. It really is time that Aviva did something similar (and that the Stock Exchange set out guidelines requiring all quoted companies to follow the example of Next).

When this is over the Stock Exchange should hold an inquiry into company failures to adequately disclose price sensitive information in line with current rules. But don not hold your breath.

[bothdavis] 29/4/2020 08:37

I should imagine that once things have calmed down and any known losses are calculated, there will be 'special dividends' paid by a lot of companies that were arm twisted into cancelling the original dividend.