Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[imagining] 28/4/2020 20:45

And what divi's might they be exactly and when??

[uppompeii] 28/4/2020 15:23

But think of the divi's....actually that's all you can do...

[whatsup32] 28/4/2020 14:10

250p another 215 and I’m even.

[xamf] 28/4/2020 14:03

Thanks Lintons.

[xamf] 28/4/2020 12:42

Does anyone know when in May Aviva are due to release interim figures/Covid update?

[smurfy2001] 28/4/2020 11:20

The fact that some countries are now relaxing the lockdown is already is having a really bullish effect on my new portfolio.

A successful vaccine from Oxford would be very welcome.

[sam9092] 28/4/2020 10:08

Thankyou. Wise comments

[xamf] 28/4/2020 09:51

I look for 3 traits in a stock.. value (tick), good divi (tick.. ok when they resume) and finally momentum. I still think it’s too early to call the latter and I admire the bravery and foresight of those who bought pre 230.

However if sentiment has changed then I doubt we’ll see sub 240 levels again and a steal over the next 12 months ... setting aside a second covid wave etc. As ever DYOR.

[sam9092] 28/4/2020 09:46

Question is, should you buy now?

[xamf] 28/4/2020 09:13

Hopefully we’ve seen momentum turn here after the no divi announcement.

[eurofox] 28/4/2020 08:51

my holding has just gone blue - at last

[pvi1] 28/4/2020 08:08

Nice start to the day.

[linton5] 28/4/2020 08:07

Wow bp still paying divi after today's readings steel balls rings to mind.

[eurofox] 27/4/2020 16:56

....HUGE LATE trade just showed up, I wonder is that a sell order finally being filled? Or is it a late buy explaining the move higher towards the close??

... that was just an uncrossing trade

[panshanger1] 27/4/2020 16:48

Most of the day it was behind LGEN and PHNX- but finished the day much stronger Maybe forming a bottom now GLA

[laptop15] 27/4/2020 16:47

HUGE LATE trade just showed up, I wonder is that a sell order finally being filled? Or is it a late buy explaining the move higher towards the close??

[eurofox] 27/4/2020 16:42

which move?

[panshanger1] 27/4/2020 16:35

Interesting late move on this share

[wba1] 27/4/2020 15:30

Thanks cjac39. I would value the UK general business alone at a (conservative) minimum of £3 billion based on recent transactions (and the market cap of the likes of Direct Line). Then there is whatever value is ascribed to Canadian and European general business (which when combined is bigger than UK general). However you look at it that is a much greater sum of parts than the current share price when added to your valuation for the life side.

[cjac39] 27/4/2020 12:52

ive also been trying to find out what % of the AUM of Aviva investors is external and what is life co money. its certainly however not unreasonable to ascribe a 1-2% of AUM valuation to Aviva and for products where their bps charge is higher or where they have performance fees it could be double this. however i would imagine they have at least £50bln of external money and probably higher than this. so again big picture this must be £0.5-£1bln plus they have the platform and the other savings and unit linked and with profit fund etc etc so i think the UK life and assets business is approaching £7-8bln for me of value. the European stuff is slated to generate £0.75-£1boln of cashflow between now and 2022. i think that looks harder now but if that's 3 yrs cashflow surely its worth more than that. therefore even with the mkt shock i could persuade myself that the life business alone in Aviva is worth the mcap today and therefore the general business is thrown in for free.

[whatsup32] 27/4/2020 12:51

Aviva doesn’t fail to disappoint. Not much of a rise given positive market and good - pre market USA.

Aviva needs to give some guidance now given their competition has. Admiral been one today, L&G a few weeks back

[cjac39] 27/4/2020 12:48

ok to cheer you up WBA on life co valuation. its hard to disentangle some bits of it but heuristically i would say an annuity book of £65bln should be worth £5-6bln in normal mkt conditions. a recent transaction i know about was valued at about 10% of reserves but of course it matters on type of annuity, credit quality etc all of which should be positive for Aviva relatively. another way to get to this valuation is to think that insurers capital for annuities is approximately 12% which releases slowly over time plus the profits on annuities release as well. the PV of the capital is approx 50% and the release of credit defaults and longevity add about 0.5%-0.6% per annum if you assume no defaults (most insurers have not suffered a default in their annuity books since 2001/2002) and they've got their underwriting correct on longevity. so roughly speaking this adds up to about the same 10%. ie undisturbed their annuity business alone is worth £5-6+bln. maybe you could argue stressed market conditions this isn't reasonable but don't forget this over the cycle. even if property prices fall today its what they are in 10-15 years that matters. this is reinforced by having the equity release capability, the bulks capability and a market leading presence in annuities and eq release.

[wba1] 27/4/2020 10:39

I agree that water damage claims are the worst, but many (and the most expensive) relate to flood claims. We are now beyond the flood season (absent odd events) and the effect of lockdown on water damage will be restricted to damage from domestic events, which are less expensive on average. Still helps the loss ratio.

I was feeling optimistic until I saw the news this morning. But looking for the silver lining; whilst we may have seen the return of the most incompetent PM in living memory (a high hurdle to cross), we will all be entertained once more by the finest Benny Hill tribute act since.........Benny Hill.

[whatsup32] 27/4/2020 10:38

Admiral paying regular dividend, withholding special and paying chief executive £5m

Says company can afford it and thanks his customers , shareholders and staff