Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[yorgi] 26/2/2011 18:35

Snickerdog

The first post(to the best of my knowledge) by SC declaring he was short here was Wednesday the 23rd post 3343. His argument to support this was very quickly repudiated by TW pointing out all the inaccuracies in his case. However SC is sticking with his argument and one must say then not accepting TW's analysis.

I'm happy to answer where I can and be of any help

[snickerdog] 26/2/2011 18:18

Hello yorgi et al. I have had half an eye on the AVN share price since the Wednesday before last when I went to one of TW's t1ps events and heard they were bullish upon a few tech stocks like AVN. Not reason enough for me to go into a stock but at least it made me aware of a possibility.

So, I've been reading up a bit recently and hope you don't mind a few questions to catch up.

First question - when did SC declare that he may be short here?

[yorgi] 26/2/2011 17:35

Better result than Man Utd beating Wigan :-)

[yorgi] 26/2/2011 17:34

You beat me to it Joninib :-)

[yorgi] 26/2/2011 17:33

I hope nobody was foolish enough to follow SC tip and put a £20,000 bet on Newcastle to beat Bolton today.....as they would have lot their money. Just like they will following his flawed argument to sell AVN.

Gentleman

I'm still a buy on AVN and don't follow SC and lose more money :-)))

[chrissey] 26/2/2011 16:14

well, I got into trouble with the ADVFN bb stazi last week for posting EK's comments.

Anyway, seems that David Williams is really pleased that he was handed the pooportunity to buy a lot of stock at a damn good price as a result of the dramatic fall.

[blue forever] 26/2/2011 15:40

Ok,thanks.

[marksnsparkle] 26/2/2011 15:29

Blue forever ... when your talking about revenue, size is not the only consideration its far more complicated than that

But just keep in mind this real world example ...

Hughes Communications ( generates £183 million of consumer broadband from a satellite that is only twice the capacity of Avanti HYLAS 1 ... both satellites use the same technology as each other, i.e. they are both flexible in allocating power

[sg31] 26/2/2011 15:16

It won't make much difference to me what he says.I've been invested in AVN for a long time and have a great respect for the company.

Underpinning the value of the company is the spectrum they control.

[blue forever] 26/2/2011 14:16

So does that mean the Eutelsat sat is only about twice the size of Hylas1 or do contracts and price differentials mean it doesn`t matter?

[sg31] 26/2/2011 13:29

The other part of his arguement is that with Eutelsat competing for customers AVN will not be able to reach capacity at the prices they have assumed in their business plan.They could be forced to reduce prices meaning a shortfall in revenues.

This might have more substance as an arguement if you think there is more capacity than demand.That doesn't seem likely at this stage.AVN also seem to be more involved in the government and business market than Eutelsat.

It will be interesting over the next few weeks.

[marksnsparkle] 26/2/2011 13:05

MALCOLMMM ... Simon Cawkwell's whole bear argument hinges around the fact that in his view Eutelsat have launched a satellite that is 20 times larger than the satellite Avanti have launched

He makes the point that the Eutelsat satellite will generate £100 Million in revenue and therefore the Avanti satellite, that is in his view 20 times smaller, could not possibly generate the £45 Million in revenue that Avanti have forecasted

Presumably the figure that Simon has in his head for Avanti is £5 million, i.e. 20 times less than Eutelsat

So Simon thinks Avanti will miss there revenue forecast for Hylas 1 by £40 million and so he has gone short because on his numbers Avanti would be overvalued

It's a compelling argument until you realise that the Eutelsat satellite is not 20 times larger than the Avanti satellite ... basically Simon has got his figures totally wrong by using the wrong numbers in his calculation

So in summary Simon is totally wrong when he says the Eutelsat satellite is 20 times larger than Avanti's satellite ... and Avanti are totally right when they say Hylas 1 will earn £45 Million in revenue

[yorgi] 26/2/2011 11:52

Gekks I increased my holding this week as well but I'm afraid I was not lucky enough, or astute enough :-) to have got any below 500p.

I will have a look at SRT Malcolmmm.

[gekks] 26/2/2011 11:46

Yorgi, I've tripled my holding here in the last 2 weeks with the lowest buy at £4.94 , and now feel far more confident even at these low levels than previously.

[malcolmmm] 26/2/2011 11:43

That's what I am thinking goinglong, Calendonia is a successful investment trust
They sure as nuts arn't going to risk 5.8% of investors assets 14m their fourth biggest company investment into something they haven't carefully analysed from all angles. Big article in the Mail on SRT which just happens to be my biggest investment, another great growth company.

[yorgi] 26/2/2011 11:32

Yes, Goinglong the board has been very busy this week. Welcome aboard and I'm confident that AVN is going to reward us well in time. So far I have not seen any argument that holds water that does not make a compelling case that AVN's potential market is huge and once in Hylas1 is in service and starts to prove itself then we will see a big turnaround here.

[goinglong] 26/2/2011 11:08

A very interesting debate on here, Caledonia's investment management team seem to think Avanti will be a big winner. That is good enough for me. Goinglong Monday in a big way.

[restassured] 26/2/2011 09:16

"Meanwhile, Liberum Capital analysts said short sellers' claims that competitor Eutelsat was sharply undercutting Avanti were based on a misunderstanding of the technology."



!!!

[blue forever] 26/2/2011 08:34

Ok,thanks yorgi.