Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/3/2022 18:17

Are we all ready for the mornings FY results with eyes focused on the cash/debt/dividend positions..?

Will the results get sold into, or will buyers be rushing in to secure their slice of the next dividend.. :o)

2017 | 7 pence total
2018 | 8 pence total
2019 | 9 pence total (4.125 pence final)
2020 | 9 pence total (3.75 pence final)
2021 | tbc total (1.75 pence + bonus final)

With a range of Q4/FY expectations from 1.75p to 4p we have it covered, a progressive payout with 4p for a 9.25p total would be well received I am sure..

At H1-2021 debt was -USD121M/150M, cash +14M with net debt of -108M

Onward and upward, we are moving forward and positioning for the next additions either way the cake is cut..

[cocopah] 29/3/2022 08:52

Lots of options on the divi … pay 1.75p and smash the debt down, pay 3.75p-4.5p as befits an income stock … or maybe a hybrid (say) pay 2.5p at year-end and declare a special divi for later in the year thus achieving a mix of the two benefits. Having benefited from a progressive dividend policy over the last few years (as #LLB illustrates above) it would be a bit of a reversal to only pay 1.75p.

Either way as long as the new CEO doesn’t feel the need to ‘impose’ himself by rushing into expensive deals (and as an internal appointee who played a significant role in the VB transaction he shouldn’t feel the need to do so) I will be happy whatever the divi decision is.🤷‍♂️ԅ26;

[podgyted] 27/3/2022 22:09

Personally think they should increase the 3.75p. Their underlying investments are on a roll and it would flag definitively that they are confident.

But we'll see.

[woodhawk] 27/3/2022 19:48

Yes, I would be dismayed if the final bonus wasn't at least 3.75p. I think there is headroom to increase that. I was initially attracted to APF because of the potentially growing divi. It would be a shame if it became stagnant.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/3/2022 19:14

#Woodhawk, your timing was pretty good to enter around then too at around the 100p, FY2021 results and dividend on Wednesday, with Q1-2021 results c27.04.2022..

As for the SP, a strong dividend in the results this week could get us to 200p, if not we also now know that Q1 will be stronger than Q4, with every chance that Q2 will be stronger than Q1..

My expectations are a 1.75p standard dividend and a 2p bonus, with everything else used to reduce the VB debt, if it transpires to be just the standard 1.75p and no bonus to smash the debt down even faster to set us up for the Incoa/BRN royalties so be it, every penny dividend costs us GBP2.12M/USD2.8M

2017 | 7 pence total
2018 | 8 pence total
2019 | 9 pence total (4.125 pence final)
2020 | 9 pence total (3.75 pence final)
2021 | tbc total (1.75 pence + bonus final)

Holders here for income would no doubt find a 3.75p final more agreeable, which includes me.. :o)

[woodhawk] 25/3/2022 17:25

I'm a relative newbie here, having only discovered APF in November 2020. Nevertheless, with a bit of judicious trading along the way, I'm almost 100% up after just 16 months. I've got a feeling it hasn't even really started yet...

[the deacon] 25/3/2022 16:59

Absolutely. So many operators reporting significant opex/capex increases, the smart money is moving into royalties and streamers. If we are in for a prolonged period of higher inflation then those poorer operators are going to get found out. With relatively fixed opex costs the royalty co's stand to be the big winners. I am somewhat biased though, given the bulk of my portfolio is in R&S ;)

[woodhawk] 25/3/2022 16:44

I'm starting to believe that RBC's 245p target will soon be exceeded. I like their "cost-inflation impervious" quote. The huge advantage of the streaming and royalties model adopted by APF is becoming ever clearer.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/3/2022 16:37

#Woodhawk, indeed, 15,000 taken at 179.522p and a few at 179.6p too with 56,395 shares matched at 179p in the last auction UT..

200p now looks withing easy reach post results, or post the Q1 results.. :o)

[woodhawk] 25/3/2022 16:32

Wow! Nice close!!

[woodhawk] 25/3/2022 15:05

Interesting quote from RBC in the RNS today:

""We continue to favor equities with exposures to Ukraine supply demand disconnects, namely Glencore (thermal coal), Anglo American, Sibanye-Stillwater (platinum group metals) and the cost-inflation impervious Anglo Pacific with its royalty structure."

I wonder if they'll upgrade their 245p t/p after the results next week?

[the deacon] 25/3/2022 10:15

A couple of mins of discussion around how Mantos is changing and the outlook there (from approx 17 mins in on the video below). Osisko clearly very bullish about the prospects there https://youtu.be/xF9IXinVZxo

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/3/2022 09:28

It is worth looking back at the share price from Xmas 2008 post crash to Xmas 2011/NY 2012 during the last commodity super cycle mostly driven by China and its tremendous appetite for commodities, but consider today 10 years on from that we are looking at a similar event driven by the green energy/EV/wind/solar revolution with a focus on nuclear on top..

Copper is higher now, Nickel higher and Cobalt is almost treble when our share price peaked at the high, during that period the share price went from 100p to 350p...

The results/dividend RNS next week is very much on my mind, the c250p broker targets could be just the beginning.. :o)

[dgellissnr] 25/3/2022 08:43

Has been over £3.07 🤔

[johnrxx99] 25/3/2022 08:00

Seems as though we are going through a re-rating period. 180p is a big hurdle but doable in the next month imo.

[masurenguy] 25/3/2022 07:44

Currently at a 2 year high on the LSE. Agree that we could potentially see 200p again if the results and outlook are as anticipated next week.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/3/2022 07:33

#The Deacon, momentum is certainly on our side now, and we have had a near 50p rerating here in a month as recognition of our 2021 earnings and 2022 potential hit home..Today will be very interesting indeed as you point out, either way a continuation or retrace will not impact our results, and there were plenty of buyers all yesterday afternoon at 170p ..200p coming into view now and not on the distant horizon any more..!

[cocopah] 25/3/2022 07:22

#The Deacon thanks for your insights. The management team there are certainly motoring and inflation worries (plus the war in Ukraine unfortunately) probably favour continued upside for gold .. for now. I have been following the Thacker Pass battles and saw that in February the NDEP issued air, water, and mining permits. As part of the decision, no mining will now be allowed below the water table and this got me thinking the battle may be more protracted than I originally thought. Anyway I really appreciate your thoughts. I will stop hijacking’s the great work going on here at APF now.😂㈇7;🏻

[the deacon] 25/3/2022 07:21

Todays performance on the TSX will be very telling. Will it retace back as per previous times where it's run a bit, or might it continue to gain traction - with the UK listing playing catch up...?Re TRR dividend, I think they'll announce a dividend policy this year, but personally I'd like to see them wait until Thacker Pass is up, running and contributing before they kick off dividend payments. They're very much in growth mode right now and I'd like to see that continue.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/3/2022 07:11

#cocopops, the TSE listing price move was based on some pretty small volumes, 12,000 shares when I looked, but what is significant is that the company is getting more exposure and traction in Canada post VB, RS companies trade on bigger PE multiples over there, so it will be interesting to see if our rerating here continues to follow their trend..Results just a few days out now and we can set our stall out for 2022..TRR is an interesting watch, and a dividend is what I'm waiting for there too..

[the deacon] 25/3/2022 06:32

I think the management team at Trident have done a great job in the short time they've been listed. There's a couple of things that I think could get the share price moving higher in fairly short order. Firstly the market wants to see how well the gold offtake contracts are contributing to the top line. I've seen other precious metals royalty and streaming companies punished for straying outside of their lane when it comes to adding anything other than a vanilla royalty or stream to their portfolio. Not saying that's the case at TRR, but I think the market wants that 'show me the money' moment.Secondly, and undoubtedly the company maker for TRR is Thacker Pass. I think there'll be a significant influx of capital into Trident on the back of the court upholding their decision when the appeal hearing is heard soon. TP would effectively be Tridents 'Kestrel' type asset, underpinning the valuation and providing $20+m per year for many many decades form the lithium operation.

[cocopah] 24/3/2022 23:29

#The Deacon … bit of a side-bar, however do you think Trident is ready to move again yet? They must be getting closer to generating divis.🤔