Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/3/2022 08:32

#Podgyted, Q1 income is looking very strong indeed, outside of the big hitters Coking coal and Cobalt in our portfolio, V2O5 has been creeping up too, income from Largo should be getting close to double now and well over USD1M, 2021 income was 3.2M, and 2022 should be closer to USD6M.. :o)

Getting closer to finding out what our FY dividend will be on the 30th..

[podgyted] 17/3/2022 22:53

According to my graphs C. coal is $627.5 and cobalt $37.1.

Holding everything else equal vs Q4 and just applying these price rises I get Q1 revenue of $47m.

Esoterically, if current prices hold for the rest of the year, I get revenue of $220m.
Wouldn't that be good. I'm at the "too good to be true" barrier.

[woodhawk] 17/3/2022 08:14

Massive spread this morning 152p - 159p!?!! Quotes seem to be all over the place today, huge spreads, odd lurches... what's going on?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/3/2022 09:01

Given what we know about 2022 income and where it is heading I can see an assault on 200p coming up PDQ, the run up to FY2021 results and dividend is going to get interesting for sure.. :o)

#Dartboard1, on Salamanca sooner or later the push to renewables and energy needs will force the hand on approvals, but it might take a change of Gov to see it through permitting and can take decade, it's not that unusual..

We will see, but the nearest developments on our radar are the Dugbe DFS by end of April and the Incoa tranche2 investment for USD20M, but given the bumper income from Kestrel that will take care of itself along with our fast reducing debt position..

FY2021 results and dividend - 30.03.2022
Q1 update - 27.04.2022
VEIN Dugbe DFS - before end of April

[the deacon] 11/3/2022 08:56

An outside chance. European governments seem a lot more open to the idea of nuclear as a key part of the future energy mix. Maybe that'll eventually sway the Spanish. APF with some good uranium exposure nevertheless

[dartboard1] 11/3/2022 08:30

Any chance Salamanca approval gets pushed through with pressure from the EU now? I've almost forgotten about it now ...

[podgyted] 10/3/2022 17:08

The move in AUS coking coal futures from the $400's to the $600's seems to be holding.

Still a bit wary but Dalian CC futures are rising strongly as well albeit at a lower dollar value.

At this rate Kestrel is not just having a swansong but also throwing in a supernova.

Fingers crossed it lasts.

[cocopah] 10/3/2022 15:38

Cheers #LLB😎

[woodhawk] 10/3/2022 15:19

You're doing sterling work here, LLB, keep it up!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/3/2022 14:55

#Cocopops, on VB sales costs, they are slated at 18% of the Cobalt price * the volume, but I understand there are uptick payments due if the price goes over a trigger number per/lb, I cannot pin point it yet but possibly the default next tier at 22%..

The total cost of sales at Q4 from the summary was 24.5%, but could include some start up stream costs and marketing, shipping etc all rolled in, we will get a better idea from the FY accounts at month end and then the Q1 summary, but regardless of fees we are making stronger returns all the same..

[woodhawk] 10/3/2022 13:28

Despite the fact that I've only been invested here for a mere 16 months - first purchased at 104p in Nov 2020 - APF is (after some judicious trading) already my 6th most profitable investment. I'm more inclined to just let it run at the moment as I switch largely from trading to accumulation of dividends across my portfolio.

[cocopah] 10/3/2022 13:18

#Woodhawk, I absolutely agree and only commented because it was in the zone chart wise and funny to me (hence the tears of laughter). A little bit of levity. Lol. As I’ve said before really pleased with my investment here and the quality of debate from regular contributors. Usually extremely informative with no ramping at all. A refreshing change to what normally happens on social media.👍995;👍ㇿ5;😎😎

[woodhawk] 10/3/2022 13:15

Yes, but the last time it double-topped at 160p the earnings weren't anything like they are now. A divi increase to 10p would be more than welcome. Results in 13 days trading time.

[cocopah] 10/3/2022 13:07

I remember the last time this double-topped at £1.60. If the same happens again I will eat my hat! 😂😂😂

#LLB On a serious note, do you have an inkling as to the impact of cost of sales increases?

[woodhawk] 10/3/2022 10:25

Clearly a lot more interest in APF at the moment - new posters here and I think a lot of larger ordinary trades recently. All looking very good. Less than two weeks trading to the results. It's going to be interesting to see what the share price is by then.

[sporazene2] 10/3/2022 07:23

LLB. At the current nickel price the piaui deal looks stunning. BRN's valuation on a conservative 5x ebitda when in steady state production is eye watering. With the BFS due mid year we will get a clearer picture of the NPV of that project. All depends of course on how the nickel settles over the long term but I suspect the ripple will impact pricing for a reasonable period of time.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/3/2022 07:16

Cobalt up to USD81,500 now, our cost of sales will go up as prices trigger uptick payments, but a good problem to have..

Nickel still suspended on the LME, and not expected to open trading until at least 11.03.2022 as some clearing houses reported to be in distress, and at the price rise rate that’s hardly a surprise either..

Not much material impact on us from the suspension, but as Piaui starts adding income and scaling up that’s another good problem to have..

[the deacon] 09/3/2022 06:25

APY (APF) closed +11.6% on the TSX yesterday, at $2.99 (£1.77)

[the deacon] 08/3/2022 18:44

The fair wind is certainly coming APF's way now, with coking coal, cobalt particularly strong. Altius have enjoyed a recent boost on the back of their potash royalties. But yeah, I see no reason why APF can't trade significantly higher than it is presently.

[woodhawk] 08/3/2022 18:41

... so far?

[the deacon] 08/3/2022 18:32

I've always thought a merger with Altius Minerals made sense. Create the first $bn diversified royalty company. Altius are almost there themselves now though. They've performed so well since the March 2020 lows. I bought them around $7 back then. They sit at $24 today. In comparison APF has frustratingly underperformed.

[woodhawk] 08/3/2022 17:53

Rose from this level to 220p+ within a couple of months, not so long ago, in 2019.

What's our vulnerability to a takeover? Could be a target with income ramping up so rapidly.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/3/2022 17:45

150p and now 160p paid with a strong UT to close, now we are getting some recognition for the strength of our portfolio income upstream.

Q1/H1 earnings could yet exceed some of our best estimates as we are without doubt in the right sector of commodity royalties and streams.

Production costs are going up sharply for producers of everything with energy prices adding to input costs, but a stream or GRR/NSR neatly navigates those.

Broker targets of c250p are a way off yet, but they are coming into view now.. ;o)