Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[podgyted] 08/3/2022 17:13

The guys that bought Kestrel from RIO have, in the end, probably done the deal of the century.

[woodhawk] 08/3/2022 16:19

Well, this is a nice surprise! Fear the worst, don't look for a few days and looks like we might breech 160p (finally)!! Onwards and upwards!!

[andydaf] 08/3/2022 16:14

Thats what mine tells me as well,will not even do the sums on kestrel at the minute as it must be chucking off an obscene amount at the moment.Cobalt at 80000 as well.Whats more i can see these prices lasting longer than i thought.Lack of supply from russia/ukraine will certainly lead to shortages GLA

[podgyted] 08/3/2022 15:58

My graph shows AUS coking coal going through $600 !?

[stevie blunder] 08/3/2022 13:40

The LME has suspended trading in Nickel
Prices were going mental this morning first thing. They are cancelling the contracts traded today.



There are no prices on the Intraday Prices page, but earlier I saw $78k prior to suspension

Edit: this smacks of pure speculation by hedge funds. :-(

[the deacon] 08/3/2022 10:17

I agree on the whole. My biggest positions are in the royalty and streamers. I like the precious metals royalty co's - firstly for the reasons you describe re: gold/silver and their outlook, but secondly the bigger companies have an enormous amount of capital to deploy into new royalty and streaming deals. It's a time where producers and developers really have to keep adjusting their capex and opex forecasts upwards, and given the global uncertainty around inflation/interest rates/geopolitics etc etc there isn't a huge appetite for banks and finance houses to lend on an increasing scale. That opens the door even wider to aspects of royalty and streaming finance. Big copper deposits that were not economic at sub $3/lb are suddenly looking a lot more attractive, and as a consequence the byproduct (often gold) can be streamed off at attractive terms. The same opportunities exist for the diversified royalty companies too. Although I think we might see some of the big PM streamers pick around at the attractive copper/gold projects, there's many base/bulk/battery metals projects that are rapidly progressing through the development curve. Obviously it's important to select those that can survive commodity cycles, but the opportunities are there at a time when more vanilla project financing solutions are more hesitant. I want APF (and other R&S co's I'm in) to maintain discipline when sourcing deals. What we don't want to see is write downs in the future on deals that were too 'enthusiastic' during a commodity boom.

[gb904150] 08/3/2022 09:31

It's quite nice to have multi-commodity exposure and an inflation hedge with APF.

Some of the tip sheets I follow are recommending gold miners as a way to protect your portfolio. Although they benefit from the increased gold price, their input costs (diesel) will also be increasing. For that reason I don't see gold miners as being as good a bet as the royalty co's right now. The royalty co's benefit from the higher commodity prices without being hurt by high oil prices as the miners are.

That could change.

Soaring energy prices might lead us to a recession in the next 6 months. In which case we end up in a more of a stagflation environment. Central banks might use that convenient excuse to stay behind the curve on rate rises.

In that environment I see gold taking off and rising more quickly than energy prices. At that point the gold miners would outperform.

Any thoughts?

[sporazene2] 08/3/2022 07:23

Nickel making a very strong move overnight. Cobalt relatively stable, but surely only a matter of time. I would imagine that we we move above 160p today which looks to be a key level. Commodity pricing in USD and a good amount of actual cost realised in GBP here.

[husbod] 07/3/2022 23:15

Not sure even APF will be untouched by what the Dow is doing tonight.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/3/2022 17:53

#The Deacon, a fascinating week last week and day today for Nickel price action, there is no substitute for stainless, high strength steel, same for Cobalt, and that fact seems to have been recognised in the price as supply restrictions/sanctions now enter the equation..

Nickel sulphate / Nickel Hydroxide demand for EV batteries only compound the problem with their needs added on top of steel manufacturing needs..

Cobalt price action this week and looking forward should get very interesting.. :o)

[the deacon] 07/3/2022 17:45

With nickel at $22/lb as I write, tomorrow would be a great time to issue an update on progress at Piaui.... #justsaying..Irrespective, bodes well for Piaui switching on in the next couple of months..

[cocopah] 07/3/2022 15:12

I guess, like quite a few of you, I am waiting until the new tax year to top up my ISA. I have a funny feeling with our results out on the 30th of March that we may see a spike in the price just a week before the new tax year (c’est la vie). Without doubt we are undervalued at the moment even with the geopolitical issues facing us. As far as advice on whether to invest a large amount in this share, whilst I would say it is sensible to have irons in a few fires there is much to be said for the medium-term for APF. Our commodity prices are unlikely to face a significant downturn in the next five years, in fact the opposite is probably true (even from this level). Primarily for me APF is an income play and I have a personal stop-loss at £1.38 which I would only consider triggering if the share was in a charted short-term decline (and even then the aim would be to buy in at a lower level - an unlikely scenario IMHO). All this is just my opinions of course and I am indebted to LLB, The Deacon and others for their insights over the last couple of years.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/3/2022 14:19

Good to see our stake in LIORC has crept up under the radar to CAD50M / USD40M for starters, while Nickel has blown through USD40,000 a tonne this morning, Copper broke out over USD5 per pound briefly, V2O5 is almost USD12/lb, the Cobalt overnight price should be very interesting indeed if it moves up anything like in step with the Nickel trend, and the Piaui royalty is over both Nickel and Cobalt.. :o)

[johnrxx99] 07/3/2022 08:10

IMO if you have that much invested you should be having some form of professional advice rather than asking people you don't know for free advice.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/3/2022 07:55

#AlladinSane, welcome to the thread sharing information on what we know and what we expect, advice on scale is personal and everyone has their own view of exposure risk per holding unit for safety, but diversification is key to any portfolio between property/cash/equities/gold, and then subdivided on the equity side with no more than 5-10% in any 1 share, each to their own risk profile though..

If your funds land before April 6th, loading up any unused ISA allowance 1st, and then any new seasons after would be most sensible, but the amounts need to be your choice..

The Q1 update March 30th is almost certainly going to exceed the Q4 earnings setting our stall out for 2022 and that should support a stronger share price..

Not much is escaping the current wider market sell off, so prices should be suppressed near term winding the share price spring up for us..

[aladdinsane] 07/3/2022 05:30

Hi LLB and all the others on this thread.

I have been following all your comments about APF from afar (just joined this site a few minutes ago), for some weeks now

I am thinking of investing into APF as it seems as if the business is heading in the right direction for the future and the board seem to be on the ball, investment wise.

My wife and I will have about £50,000 heading our way from a legacy in the next 20 -40 days, but we cannot agree on whether to invest all, 50% or what....... can I be cheeky and ask what sort of holdings do you guys have (not looking for exact amounts) and how does this relate to your total investment holdings in percentage terms.

Between us, my wife and I have about £750,000 in share ISAs and hold other investments too.......so if we were to invest the whole £50000 it's not a case of 'eggsall in one basket'.

[podgyted] 07/3/2022 01:12

Yeah OT

APF changing its reporting currency to $ has caused some hiccups.

What is obvious is, unless we have a commodity crash, the forecasts for 2022 are extremely light - but mining is a bit risky even if you just take a percentage of the revenue rather than dig it out yourself.

We'll see.

[otemple3] 06/3/2022 15:22

Thanks Podgyted, looking at those two figures I am going to guess mine was translated into £ as almost exactly ties (although website shows $)$93m could be achieved in H1 if things stay as they are, but life doesn't work like that ??

[andydaf] 06/3/2022 14:23

LLB i think dividend is nailed on and i also think before coking coal price turns kestrel will sort out the debt.Long term i am super bullish over our royalty portfolio as i believe they will all be in short supply.There is not enough copper,nickel and cobalt in the world to come anywhere near the amount needed for the green transition.In the meantime lack of exports from russia/ukraine should mean bumper prices for most hard and soft commodities.I will be looking to add here on any weakness.GLA

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/3/2022 13:52

Not long to go now for our FY results and dividend news, I still see a std 1.75 pence and a 2 pence dividend bonus but we get what we get, any higher would be welcome but smashing debt down is and should be a priority IMO while the bumper Kestrel earnings are on our side..

With the earnings potential for FY2022 as it is, the share is trading on a trailing PE of around 5, a forward PE of around 3-4 with a 6% dividend whereas a similar Canadian royalty company would trade off a multiple of 10-15, we now know we are on the Canadian banks radar now and that exposure should gain traction..

The Incoa tranche2 investment should trigger soon and start adding income, the Piaui royalty price was locked in years ago and is most likely the only other 1 we can expect to see added to in 22/23 with our maiden income in Q2, and with Nickel/Cobalt prices where they are that is going to deliver in spades as the royalty rate rises..

FY2021 results and dividend - 30.03.2022
Q1 update - 27.04.2022
VEIN Dugbe DFS - before end of April

[andydaf] 06/3/2022 10:27

Short term i am still bullish on commodities and the trick here is to use the kestrel windfall to pay down debt and for the new ceo not to rush into new investments at what appears to be near top of the cycle.The world is facing a energy crisis,huge inflation pressures,quite possibly food shortages caused by fertilizer prices and war in the east.What every energy crisis in history has taught us is its always followed by recession.If we can get debt free we should be in a super position to aquire new streams/royalties at the bottom of the cycle.As always gla

[sarkasm] 06/3/2022 10:26

Upcoming events on ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP PLC



March/30/2022 FY 2021 Earnings Release

[podgyted] 06/3/2022 10:11

Analyst ratings:-

2 Buys
2 Strong Buys

[podgyted] 06/3/2022 10:04

Stockopedia has $84m for 2021 and $93m for 2022 - suspect analysts are awaiting accounts for 2021 before updating 2022.

[otemple3] 05/3/2022 16:40

My rough calcs point to $45m so same sort of ball park, with obvious potential for more if coal prices remain high (and I am assuming another big jump occured on Friday in line with other commodities)....Is broker forecast still for $68m for FY? Can't find any evidence of higher figure but seems crazy to still hold it that low. Maybe they won't update until Q1 update