Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[sporazene2] 09/2/2022 18:03

As long as HUM don't get involved operationally we should be fine.

[woodhawk] 09/2/2022 17:20

"We also update our LIORC dividend estimates to include the new numbers published by our Canadian team," the analysts said, which increased the NAV per share from 186p to 188p and led to the new target price."

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/2/2022 09:39

#The Deacon, good news at Pasofino last night, and by end of April we will have a DFS for Dugbe, following which HUM will reverse into VEIN and own 51% of the company, ESAN have recently bought a stake in VEIN, and I expect them to be a part of the journey into production, but 2 or 3 years out from now our 2-2.5% NSR should start to deliver and we can work out the income numbers from the DFS .. :o)

[cocopah] 07/2/2022 21:23

Does anyone know whether the Canadian truckers protests are impacting VB operations in any way?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/2/2022 09:47

A couple more quarters with coking coal at this level and we can put a very large dent in the VB lending, setting us up very nicely for the next royalties.. :o)

FY results and dividend mid April
Q1-2022 update early May

H1 earnings of USD23M and a FY of 85M (+62M) less the 25M/GBP19M dividend payout
At H1-2021, debt was -USD121M/150M, cash +14M with net debt of -108M, the VB loan terms are net debt to EBITDA multiples, at H1 we were under 2.5 times, and now we are comfortably under 1.5 times..

We should have wiped around -35M off the debt in H2-2021, leaving -86, and if coking coal holds up we could in theory wipe out between half and three quarters of that over 2022, leaving us perfectly positioned to add -20M into Incoa and -70M into Piaui...

[podgyted] 04/2/2022 11:50

Coking coal futures took another step up - now over $430/MT.

Interesting to see what happens when China comes back from holiday next week.

[woodhawk] 04/2/2022 11:00

Looks like a wedge forming in an uptrend here - so there should be a healthy breakout to the upside in the near term, imo. That would be consistent with the excellent news in the recent trading update. I'm assuming this would happen prior to the results due in April.

[woodhawk] 02/2/2022 13:14

FWIW as of yesterday - RBC RAISES ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP PRICE TARGET TO 245 (240) PENCE - 'OUTPERFORM'

So just a 70% increase from here then? Dunno why they bothered uplifting it just another 5p from just over a week ago though!?!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/2/2022 09:52

#tommygriff, I did see Warren Buffet has opened a position.. :o)

[tommygriff] 02/2/2022 08:47

1 share traded at 145p

[cocopah] 01/2/2022 11:47

Decent interview (I thought he grew in confidence throughout- albeit it was only 6 mins). Not sure much more can/will be done atm (good new deals that meet the investment criteria will be few and far between). Provided the person has the requisite skills I am a fan of internal promotion - otherwise quality just leaves. Current commodity prices should see us really whack the debt down this year (from an already diminished position at the last update). Income should be excellent in 2022 and maybe his biggest job will be convincing the investment community that APF can (and will) deliver a smooth transition of income as Kestrel winds down and VB/Incoa/Piaui grow their contribution.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 31/1/2022 17:48

#The Deacon, I see you have come round to the idea.. :o), bearing in mind the strategy is to continue along the current path, Marc is very well placed to execute that for us, and I look forward to his inputs and updates, smashing the debt down, adding tiers to existing royalties and some new ones along the way too..

FY update mid April and we can see the cash/debt/dividend position..

[the deacon] 31/1/2022 15:06

Here's today's interview with Marc. I was probably a bit harsh on him earlier. If even just half of JT's skillset has rubbed off on him over the last 8 years - we're in very good hands..https://youtu.be/8tZhASLgDfc

[gateside] 31/1/2022 09:30

johnrxx99 - I just know that a question that is repeatedly asked on the bb's is, "When are the next results?"

Though sometimes the info is in the header and people even don't notice it when it is there!

No big deal if you add it or not - good luck with your investments

[dogberry202000] 31/1/2022 09:07

I lke the organic nature of the appointment. It seems sensible to me that the Board's appointment was deeply involved with the new direction of APF.Several thoughtsThe lack of planning and naivity of most western governments has ensured that the swan-song of traditional energy will last longer than some imagine.The transition to electric vehicles will likely mean a change in private ownership with vehicles rented or shared over the internet for short periods rather than stand outside peoples' homes or companies' yards. The change in public and private spaces could be immense. I've noticd at least one tabloid drip feeding possible changes in the future of private car ownership.Security of supply is likely to grow in imporrtance when valuing royalty companies APF.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 31/1/2022 09:00

I notice the Incoa royalty tranche2 funding is now slated for early 2022, so should start contributing from Q2/H1, they all add up as they say.. :o)

[johnrxx99] 31/1/2022 08:30

Gateside - I'm happy to do it if others think it is essential to have in the "bumff".

[gateside] 31/1/2022 08:22

johnrx99 - You have a few paragraphs of bumff in the header about the company but won't add 4 lines of key dates of when results are happening in 2022.

Oh well - I was just trying to help potential new investors know when important events were happening.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 31/1/2022 07:16

An interesting and sensible choice IMO, Marc is fully up to speed with what we do, how we do it, with zero integration time needed, and can continue all the current workflows ..., if it ain't broken, don't try to fix it ...!

[the deacon] 31/1/2022 07:11

To be honest I'm a little underwhelmed by this appointment. Appreciate he's got relevant experience, but I think they could have done better. I hope he proves me wrong.

[johnrxx99] 31/1/2022 07:02

Good choice imo.

[johnrxx99] 31/1/2022 06:46

I have updated the details of assets based on the new website.

Of note: the order of producing assets has reduced Kestrel from 2 to 8 (last): Groundhog has been removed, as has Ring of Fire and Amapá & Tucano. Included is Incoa.

[johnrxx99] 31/1/2022 06:31

Piedro - re coal: as a commodity it has many years of use due to the rich economies not funding alternatives. For APF, imo Kestrel will deter II's from investing as public pressure grows. PI's do not a flier make.

Re the future: yes we need some big scores asap. No doubt a new CEO will want to make his name. My only concern is that he/she is not too eager and gets questionable terms so it could take a while.

[johnrxx99] 31/1/2022 06:23

Gateside - sorry to be a bore but I assume everyone here has software/reminders/websites to remind them of key dates.

Don't want to clog up the the lead into the comments, like some threads.