Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/4/2021 11:09

A revisit to the 2021 income now we know more about Kestrel/VB expected earnings, GBP60-65M total income best estimate, with upside from Kestrel pending coal pricing but we will get a much clearer picture from the Q1 update at month end, and firm up on what Mantos Blancos is delivering at >USD4 copper... :o) 14.4p EPS | 9-10p DPS | PE12 | SP175p target..? Kestrel | GBP 20M (similar to 2020)..? Maracás Menchen | 4M Narrabri | 4M Mantos Blancos | 10M..? Four Mile | 1M ..? LIORC dividends | 4.8M in Q1 +2M rest of year | 6.8M total Interest McClean Lake & Jogjakarta | 1.8M ..? EVBC | 2.5M McClean Lake principal 1.0M Voiseys Bay | 10-12M

[the deacon] 17/4/2021 08:37

Proactive presentation from Thursday. Anglo Pacific starts at approx 1hr 7mins. https://youtu.be/3WWfDutRsDU

[johnrxx99] 17/4/2021 06:36

illiswilgig (?)I agree. As a CEO Mr T has to tread a careful path. The market seems to have accepted that.

[illiswilgig] 16/4/2021 11:50

I'm not sure that I'd read it as intentionally unclear - so much as being very careful with the wording. To avoid giving a negative impression - as they they can't pay the dividend yet, which seems to be the case, and causing another buying opportunity for me? cheers

[the deacon] 16/4/2021 09:29

Interesting presentation at the Proactive One-To-One last night. Julian identifying manganese (again), rare earths and lithium as particularly attractive at the moment. Also said they're always keen on more copelr exposure. Thanks for the feedback LG. Frustrating, as it feels like they're trying to be intentionally unclear about what's happening with the dividend. Julian reiterated the 7p base last night. Seems to me that things are very tight as far as leverage headroom is concerned, and they need two or three months to work this through.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/4/2021 09:28

#LG much as we surmised, to aid cash flow, but probably more to do with keeping us inside the lending leverage criteria.. The Q1 update will be here soon enough, the T/A pennant is coming to a point just at the right time for further news and to trigger a breakout.. :o)

[woodhawk] 16/4/2021 09:17

Thanks, Lord Gnome, that's what I thought - nothing in May. Shame they couldn't be clearer.

[lord gnome] 16/4/2021 09:11

Ok, I have had half a response, which shed very little light on the situation and just muddied the water a bit more. I have asked for a detailed clarification. Basically, reading between the lines, it is as we suspected. There will be no dividend of any description in May. The first interim and the final for FY21 will be closely bunched together to aid cash flow. I will post again if I hear anything further.

[cocopah] 16/4/2021 08:39

Julian said that he was surprised that the share price hadn’t reacted more positively. Perhaps The recent trading range is a bit of punishment for the ‘jam tomorrow’ news on revenue and the divi delay? LLB, Deacon & Lord Gnome ... I’m quite happy to wait for the jam however I’m not sure that income will be as robust as early as we think and it could take a little while. Thoughts?

[cocopah] 15/4/2021 14:22

Interesting in the podcast that Julian specifically mentions manganese. Thoughts?

[brian3777] 15/4/2021 11:42

Hi Deacon. Thanks for the link, great video. Dig Deep. I thought it was interesting how the company first came into existence through a mistake. Also, when the aerospace industry comes back into production, how much this will effect the company. Brian3777

[the deacon] 15/4/2021 10:06

Here's the recording of the results webcast from yesterdayhttps://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/606497ae560fbf10fcc505ea/6077fc8bef17a87d0488c093

[madengland_] 15/4/2021 09:57

Great interview thanks for sharing

[the deacon] 15/4/2021 08:27

Julian interviewed on the Dig Deep podcasthttps://omny.fm/shows/dig-deep-the-mining-podcast/the-vision-for-the-future-with-julian-treger

[lord gnome] 14/4/2021 17:36

I will let everyone on the board know if/when I get a response.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/4/2021 16:33

#The Deacon, this is exactly what I was referring to, and why I think the 2020 final dividend payment date has been deferred a couple of months.., the final and the 2021-Q1 might come in close to each other, there is nothing to suggest (yet) the Q1 has been cancelled or lost ...?

[the deacon] 14/4/2021 15:48

Could this be an explanation - page 69 in today's annual report"The key features of the facility include: US$150m commitment (day one step down from US$180m upon completion of the equity raise); step down to US$125m after 18 months; operating leverage of up to 3.5x; dividend restrictions if leverage exceeds 2.5x for the Q1 2021 dividend and onwards (not expected to be triggered); security against the Group's assets; and the option to extend the three-year term by one year subject to lender consent. The facility has a cost of LIBOR plus 2.75-4.5% depending on leverage ratios but we expect the cost to normalise at LIBOR plus 2.75-3.50%. The day one borrowings of US$123.5m implied leverage of just over 3x at closing, with leverage declining to below 2.5x by the end of Q2 21 and reducing thereafter."

[sporazene2] 14/4/2021 14:48

yes thats my take LLB - management of cashflow and now waiting for the Q1 update and Q1 dividend payment information before coming to any conclusions.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/4/2021 12:09

#LG, please report back here if you get a reply, but I am hoping the reason is the payment date slippage keeps us inside the recent lending cash:debt covenants, as it effectively gives us 3 months headroom for income to cover the dividend payment off.., our CFO did touch on dividends and lending criteria in a recent VB presentation too which I noted at the time.. From the presentation : No change to dividend policy, quarterly dividend of 1.75p being maintained.. Dividend policy remains unchanged for 2021 with a quarterly dividend of 1.75p.. The Group intends to continue to pay an interim dividend of 1.75p per quarter.. So for 2021 it looks like a 7p base, 4 equal 1.75p dividends with a special on top for the final..?, a couple of weeks and we will find out in the next update when the Q1 dividend will be paid..?

[madengland_] 14/4/2021 11:44

I've not held this share for as long as many of you in here, but dealings with APF to date and I think I'd go for badly written, and am also assuming they are managing cashflow with near term investments possible. Maybe we will get clarification.Still feels a good place to invest at this entry point given the shift towards batteries and likely inflation.

[woodhawk] 14/4/2021 10:54

Yes, it's either very badly written - or deliberately devious. I'm surprised. I've just checked the prev divis - it seems obvious that we've effectively skipped one payment in the 12 month period - so there will be no payment in May - the fourth and final payment 2020 has been put back to August. https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/dividend-history/

[stemis] 14/4/2021 10:29

They've basically pushed back their entire dividend timetable by 3 months without being seen to skip an interim dividend payment. They've pushed back the final dividend from May to August. Normally they'd pay 1st interim in August so that's now November. The 2nd interim in November now becomes February. The 3rd interim in February now becomes May. Bit naughty. Not sure who they think they are kidding with the statement "In addition to the total dividends of 9p per share, we returned the cash generated from the sale of non-core mining and exploration interests directly to shareholders by way of a GBP5.0m share buyback between September and November 2020. The share buyback equates to an additional return to shareholders 2p per share, resulting in total shareholder distributions for 2020 of 11p per share." I wonder if they are planning to describe the 'issue of shares' as a reduction in distributions to shareholders?

[the deacon] 14/4/2021 09:42

JT with Proactive this morning https://youtu.be/WETLPZVW228

[illiswilgig] 14/4/2021 09:37

Re: Quarterly Dividend - from this mornings results outlook statement ' We will continue to pay interim quarterly dividends at the rate of 1.75p per quarter, with the final dividend for 2021 to be determined based on results for the year and growth opportunities executed or being progressed ' Seems clear to me? LLB - you may be right with respect to timing of the final dividend. They may also need cash for an upcoming deal in the near future? I'd prefer 10p on the shareprice to 3.75p in my pocket - but I respect different views, cheers