Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[johnrxx99] 23/2/2022 09:56

TD - do you mean PR? If so I totally agree but it is still a bit Gentleman's Club!

[the deacon] 23/2/2022 09:22

Earnings visibility. Folks see Kestrel coming off and either don't realise or are unaware of the likes of Piaui, Incoa, Canariaco, Mantos expansion, etc rapidly progressing towards being able to fill that gap. I think the company could do more to talk about its pipeline. I hate using Wheaton as an example, but they're providing the market with a 10 year outlook. What's producing, what's being developed, where the growth is coming from etc. Compared to the many other royalty companies that I'm in, APF need to do a lot more IR.

[woodhawk] 23/2/2022 08:46

What the hell has to happen for this share to reach a decent valuation? Continually sold down, even after those great results and very positive outlook.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/2/2022 17:40

#Cocopops, I would like to see us do both, add new and build existing royalty/streams and build the companies portfolio, it was interesting to note WPM and Trident have both been adding recently, and we have been committed to smash the VB acquisition debt down 1st before being able to add anywhere else, debt repayment has to be well ahead of expectations thanks to the bonus income from Kestrel though, so let us see where Marc takes us next..

We still have our 5M shares in treasury from the buyback period late 2020, sooner or later an II will want to pick those up, and the dividend here is far better than most of our sector peers.. :o)

A strong bump on Cobalt too over the weekend, now over USD72,500 a tonne and 3 months at this elevated level with no reason why it should weaken as we head further into the EV revolution..

Incoa - The Tranche 2 Commitment is subject to a number of conditions, including Incoa’s successful construction and operation of the project, which is expected to be achieved in early 2022

Candente - PEA for Canariaco Norte now done

BRN Piaui - 1st Metal / income due Q2-2022

[cocopah] 20/2/2022 16:48

#LLB It will be interesting to see how things play out, especially if we are chasing other streams/royalties or just adding to our existing options. Setting aside our aspirations to potentially become a £1bn company for the moment, our first foothold is to become a stable £300m to £350m enterprise. For this I’ve always thought that we need to have a flow of annual income of around £60m+ (i.e. $80m+)… so kind of where we are now. I acknowledge that dividend policy, level of debt, market dynamics and streaming/royalty run-offs (et al) all need to be taken into the mix. On a personal note I would like to average down a bit but that might be out of the question now … lessons learned that I should’ve gone harder earlier rather than being cautious. Anyhow I will be funding the ISA in April and hard pressed to find a better income + small capital appreciation alternative in 2022 atm.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/2/2022 14:48

#Cocopops, 4 quarters like Q4-2021, if prices hold up as they are, coking coal particularly could see our VB debt wiped out by the end of this year, it is a tall order, but possible, let us see where we we are at FY2021 in the coming results, and the Q1 update will give us a strong indication of what can be achieved over the FY..

FY results 14.04.2021
Q1 results 06.05.2021

2023 income could pay for the Incoa and the higher BRN royalty %.. :o)

[cocopah] 20/2/2022 14:01

#LLB and #The Deacon … short-term, by which I mean this year, I believe our income should be around four quarters of that just gone (assuming no particular material change in prices). Therefore in the short-term I can see our share price rise accordingly. I’m finding it more difficult to estimate the following year and whether we are likely to see a dip in income and therefore a share price correction. Bearing both of these things in mind perhaps we will only see a slight growth in the share price until the market believes that we can deliver a continuous performance like that delivered during the last two quarters.🤔🤔

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/2/2022 09:21

#The Deacon, good find, we know VB produced 1,608 tonnes of Cobalt in 2019, 1,592 tonnes in 2020, for 2021 Vale seem to have changed their format and grouped all their Cobalt production together, and not report it mine by mine, WPM have also totalled up from other sources so we cannot calculate from their figures either..

BUT, we do know that the UG VB mines are expected to deliver 2,600 tonnes when completed and our 22.82% equates to c600 tonnes from 2023, which in turn will yield us USD42M income at todays prices, 2022 production/income will ramp up as the 2 mines progress..

Kestrel should drop off 50% for 2023 so the timing works very nicely for us..

Piaui 1st Nickel in Q2, and the Pasofino DFS for Dugbe has come forward to end of April so very soon we will have a better idea of who is going to take that forward to a mine build, but it is looking like a JV with ESAN so far and could be up and running in 2 years for our next producing royalty..

[cocopah] 20/2/2022 00:35

#the deacon, thanks, very interesting listen. Seems like VB underground will add more significantly in 2023, just as Kestrel eases-off. I wasn’t aware of the proposed change to the taxation regime. I wonder what the impact to our income will be?

[the deacon] 19/2/2022 17:02

The Wheaton CEO briefly touches on Voiseys Bay in this interview. What he's expecting from 2022 and the switch undergroundhttp://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/commodities/video/streaming-has-killed-the-royalty-market-wheaton-precious-metals-ceo~2382409

[woodhawk] 18/2/2022 09:09

A more positive & better informed read, dated yesterday.

hxxps://www.moneyshow.com/articles/dailyguru-58249/anglo-pacific-a-strong-buy-in-base-metals/

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/2/2022 09:08

We know that Q1 earnings are going to outstrip Q4-2021 now, H1 should be better, and FY 2022 also, the debt is reducing fast, and we have a FY dividend tbc..

IF a CEO was bailing out that would usually be a big red flag, but the portfolio is very well positioned, new leadership in place and APF are not distressed, JT simply needs to cover his forward commitment to Cotec, nothing more than that..

[gb904150] 18/2/2022 09:01

Simply wall street is mostly auto-generated contents by bots and based on financial data.

There is rarely genuine analysis or insight beyond that. It's worthless content they use to get web hits. People search for a company name, simplywallstreet ranks high in SEO rankings, people click on it. Not much beyond that.

[masurenguy] 18/2/2022 08:51

Usually because these sites base their assessment purely on data without any of the insight or subjective analysis to put them into context or perspective.

[woodhawk] 18/2/2022 08:50

Simply Wall Street is a useless rag, imo. DYOR.

[cocopah] 18/2/2022 08:40

Divis received and looking forward to year-end update. Uninformed article by Simply Wall Street today … suggesting 3 warning signs for APF … divi not well covered, shareholder dilution in last year and insider selling … 🙈🙈🙈 … the dilution was to pivot into battery metals via VB, the divi is now well covered by the dramatic and ongoing increase in income and JT is leaving and needs to fund his new venture. Why do these ‘experts’; get it so wrong?! 😂😂

[woodhawk] 17/2/2022 12:38

Just received my iWEB APF divis - so all now received.

[woodhawk] 16/2/2022 16:01

Interesting - I didn't know that. Thanks, Phillis.

[phillis] 16/2/2022 15:46

Most - not all - brokers pre fund dividends ( AJ Bell does not ) so would have programmed credits to holders accounts based on expected due dates
They could not process all credits within two hours on pay day

[woodhawk] 16/2/2022 15:25

Weird announcement that divi delayed until tomorrow (17-2-2022) as several us have already had ours credited?

I also note that Treger got 144p for 1M shares.

[the deacon] 16/2/2022 14:47

BRN stated today on their Twitter feed that PNP1000 construction was 84% complete. Also stated that they received the mining license for Piaui in Q4 2021.

[wirralowl] 16/2/2022 14:05

Nothing from AJB...

[woodhawk] 16/2/2022 11:26

Have my divi from IG, but not from iWEB yet. I must say that IG have much improved the punctuality of their divi payments over the last year or so. Unfortunately iWEB seem to be getting marginally worse.

[flagon] 16/2/2022 09:05

Both IG & Interactive Investor have credited divi this morning to my ISA accounts ... maybe get another tomorrow !

[gateside] 16/2/2022 08:56

Well my broker has credited the dividend to my account this morning!