Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[piedro] 27/1/2022 10:26

Hello, I posted this on the NEW thread which was a mistake ...

"Sorry, I thought that was a terrible update.
Take out the coal revenue and what is left?
... zilch."

[piedro] 27/1/2022 10:19

RLOL,

Surely this is the new APF thread or only for yourself?

Copying and pasting takes up plenty of space but DYOR
takes time and effort.

Hopefully, johnrxx99 will vouch for my insanity.

[masurenguy] 27/1/2022 09:04

RLOL - your first post here and it is very clear that you have no understanding or knowledge of this company and its evolving business model. Don't invest here if that is your perception but the rest of us will continue to enjoy the shareprice appreciation and the excellent yield, which could probably exceed the 9p paid last year after the final dividend is announced at the end of March.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/1/2022 09:04

Volumes were down at Kestrel, so any unmined coal on our royalty panel is deferred which should prop up Q4-2022 or Q1-2023, further decreasing the reduction rate expected next year, giving more time and income to smash the debt down, pay for Incoa for free and buy up the next tier GRR at Piaui..

New CEO news imminent, possibly as soon as next week..

FY dividend tbc

[piedro] 27/1/2022 08:42

Sorry, I thought that was a terrible update.
Take out the coal revenue and what is left?
... zilch.

[sporazene2] 27/1/2022 07:16

tremendous numbers and excellent free cash generation this year. Gives the new CEO a nice platform.

[masurenguy] 27/1/2022 07:06

Excellent trading update !

Q4 21 Trading Update

$38.1m portfolio contribution in final quarter, a new record

Anglo Pacific Group issues the following trading update for the period 1 October 2021 to 27 January 2022, which includes certain information for the year ended 31 December 2021. The Company expects to release its full year results on 30 March 2022. Unless otherwise stated, all unaudited financial information is for the quarter or year ended 31 December 2021.

Buoyed by continued strength in coking coal and cobalt prices, both trading at recent historical highs, the Company's portfolio generated $38.1m in the fourth quarter alone, bringing the total contribution for the year to $85.6m. This represents both a record individual quarter and a record year for the Group and will result in a significant acceleration of the Group's deleveraging and provides enhanced financing flexibility for further acquisitions. Importantly, both coking coal and cobalt prices have remained at recent record levels thus far in 2022 and so the outlook for short-term earnings looks encouraging. The royalty model provides exposure to this commodity price upside while offering greater protection against operating cost increases and capex over-runs being seen across the mining sector as a result of the current inflationary pressures.

Highlights:

-- $38.1m of portfolio contribution in Q4 21, a second consecutive quarterly record

-- 61% more than the previous record of $23.6m in Q3 21 and more than double the $15.0m in Q4 20

-- Total portfolio contribution for FY 21 increased to around $85.6m, an 80% uplift on FY 20

-- Cobalt prices currently 70% higher than at the time of the Voisey's Bay acquisition

-- Sales volumes at Kestrel were down 6% in Q4 21, which should benefit revenue in H1 22 at higher prices as these deferred volumes are recovered

-- Voisey's Bay generated a net contribution of $12.5m during nine months of post-acquisition ownership, with a further $1.6m generated from two lots shipped in December 2021 and delivered in January 2022

-- Cobalt prices in H2 21 trigger, subject to threshold production volumes being achieved, contingent consideration of up to $1.5m being payable at 31 December 2021, the payment of which is self-funded through the higher stream income

-- Current coking coal and cobalt prices of $400/t and $34/lb respectively, are higher than the prices achieved during the record Q4 21

-- Leverage ratio expected to decrease significantly, comfortably under 1.5x at 31 December 2021

-- The Nomination Committee and Board are in the advanced stages of finalising the CEO succession, with an announcement expected to be made shortly

Julian Treger, Chief Executive Officer of the Company, commented: "I am delighted to report yet another quarterly record, a quarter which truly highlights the potential of our portfolio, our significant exposure to top performing commodities and the successful execution of our strategy. The contribution from the fourth quarter alone was 80% of that generated for the full year 2020. These record results are largely attributable to a prolonged increase in coking coal and cobalt prices. It is worth remembering that at this time last year the coking coal price was just above $100/t and the cobalt price below $20/lb. The coking coal price has now been well in advance of $350/t over the past three months and is just over $400/t today in a market that is noticeably more stable than this time last year when the impact on the seaborne market of the Chinese import ban and the disruption to key import markets in Asia due to Covid was still being worked through.

In addition, infrastructure disruption in Africa has resulted in shortages of cobalt to the market at a time when demand from both traditional end markets and from battery manufacturers has increased. This has seen the cobalt price rally significantly since the beginning of December to $34/lb today, which is 70% higher than at the time of the Voisey's Bay acquisition, and the short-term outlook remains positive. Sales volumes from Kestrel were lower than expected during 2021. This shortfall is expected to be recovered during the first half of 2022 and delays the period in which mining moves away from our private royalty land by a further quarter. With stronger coking coal prices at the beginning of this year compared to last, this bodes well for earnings in 2022. The impact of this record level of quarterly contribution will allow very meaningful deleveraging during the first quarter of 2022 and provide us with greater access to liquidity from which to continue to add growth opportunities to what we believe is the highest quality portfolio of future facing base metal royalty and streaming assets in the market."

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/1/2022 07:03

Crikey, USD38M for Q4 and USD86M for the full year, and a slick new website too… :o)

[masurenguy] 26/1/2022 15:36

Topped up today. There was also a director buy @137p earlier this month.

[giltedge1] 26/1/2022 11:44

Also added today, Coal at record high $ 300 per ton, probably sweeping tailings off the jetty at this price, Cobalt Record High, Nickel High, Iron Ore & Vanadium Recovering up. No cost inflation like mining companies.

[otemple3] 25/1/2022 22:35

Added another 10% to my holding today as agree with everyone here (but seemingly not the wider market) that it should be an extremely strong and bullish update, given recent commodity prices

[otemple3] 25/1/2022 22:33

I saw someone say earlier (elsewhere) that IR came back to them today and confirmed the update will be coming out this week so assume tomorrow or Thursday

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/1/2022 12:15

#Woodhawk, it is irritating for sure after such a long slog uphill to see 150p, I was hoping for a recovery day too, but rarely does anything escape a wider market sell off on down days so we just have to roll with the punches, only a few days here up to news time now.. :o)

Tik Tok, tomorrow/Thursday or Monday morning...?

[woodhawk] 24/1/2022 12:03

Oh, I have been buying the dips all along, LLB. It's just galling when the share price is slaughtered in the blink of an eye.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/1/2022 11:58

Buying the dips has been a good strategy for a long time to get a decent average holding price, we know news is coming this week which should reverse Friday/Monday sell off days, FY dividend tbc.. :o)

[the deacon] 24/1/2022 11:13

Most likely a consequence of a wider market sell off. I've taken advantage this morning, though only a small token. Will add more if it persists.

[woodhawk] 24/1/2022 10:40

What the hell happened here? Share price has fallen off a cliff (again).

[giltedge1] 22/1/2022 19:06

Amapa Iron Ore Royalty, Any idea of how much this Royalty is worth per annum? I cannot find any information, APF used to earn royalties before closed by previous owner.

Cadence said, based on available historic mine plans and an independent consultant review. Amapá was expected to have a full production mine life of 14 years and will target up 5.3Mt per annum of iron ore at full capacity.

The Amapa project consists of an integrated mine, processing plant, railway and privately owned port.

It was previously majority owned by Anglo American, produced 6.1 million tonnes of iron ore per annum and had been valued at US$660 million, Cadence said.

"As I have said previously, in my time working with commodity projects around the world, I have rarely if ever seen a lapsed mining project with this sort of potential," non-executive chairman Andrew Suckling said.

According to my maths 5.3Mt x $ 120/Tonne x 1% = $ 6Million per year, but not much info on quality of iron ore. Am I overestimating?

[gateside] 22/1/2022 09:39

LLB - thanks for the link to Cobalt prices :-)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/1/2022 08:43

#Gateside, the investing.com app is great, just add the Cobalt future CBDc1 to your watchlist, Coking coal is a bit more difficult in AUD as the grade/impurity dictates what it makes on the market but it is going to be good for Q4, and really good for Q1 so far..

2022 is set up to yield some stunning results, just as VB ramps up the tonnages through UG grade improvements, Vale will be reporting their numbers next month so I will keep an eye out for them and add here..

2019 | 1,608 tonnes
2020 | 1,592 tonnes | with 740 at H1
2021 tbc but 939 at H1 could give us nearer 1,850 tonnes for the FY
2022-2024 ramp up to 2,500 tonnes

Full scale and at todays prices will give us over USD40M income..

Good to see 150p paid this week, and it will not be long before that looks value..

[gateside] 22/1/2022 08:34

I use investing.com for many commodity prices, what source is good to use for the price of cobolt and coking coal?

[cocopah] 21/1/2022 06:52

#LLB I think one of the investing issues is having to think about Bed & ISAing when purchasing …. it would be much easier if investors could just shelter their annual ISA limit without that. Heh-ho first world problems I guess. 😎

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/1/2022 17:18

It is always the way Mr Knocker, should have bought more, but often more sensible to dribble shares in over a year for a reasonable average.., I took advantage of the share buyback period at c100p, but should have bought more then for sure.. :o)

150p paid here this afternoon, and nothing needs fixing for a couple of years now, just crank the handle, smash the debt down and buy additional tiers of existing royalties, but very much looking forward to our incoming CEO making himself/herself known..

My expectations for FY 2021 income are USD70-75M, as above Q1 already has the makings of a really strong quarter and 2022 could be well ahead of 2021 with prices as they are, and with that printed 175-200p could easily be in range again..

2018 income | 66M USD | year end share price | 160p
2019 income | 75M USD | year end share price | 192p
2020 income | 50M USD | year end share price | 127p
2021 income | 75M USD | year end share price | 135p (20% share dilution)
2022 income | 85M USD | year end share price | 175p - 200p ..?

[andydaf] 20/1/2022 17:15

Third quarter we had longwall change at kestrel costing two to three weeks of production,Q4 should be more production at a better price.Fag packet calculation average coal price $300,royalty of $22.5 multiplied by 1.25million tons gives me Q4 kestrel contribution at $28million on its own.Q4 is going to be big,just a question of how big.As always good luck all dyor