Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[1knocker] 20/1/2022 17:10

I am very pleased with my top up at 126 not many weeks ago. Only wish I had bought more ... I hope the new boss is wise enough not to mend something which is not broken.

[podgyted] 20/1/2022 16:49

Amazing when you consider coking coal (my rough estimate) averaged $135 in the first half of 2021.

[podgyted] 20/1/2022 15:51

Coking coal has breached $400 - if Kestral volumes are at least maintained from Q3 they are in for a lot of fun in Q4 and Q1/2022.

[woodhawk] 20/1/2022 15:45

Cobalt has shot up hugely over the past few months, coal too.

[andydaf] 20/1/2022 15:20

I imagine investors are starting to understand the kestrel royalty is behaving like a slot machine paying jackpot after jackpot.Many thought coking coal price would decline with the winter olympics but it does not seem to be the case.With cobalt at 70k as well APF are in the sweet spot.Huge Q4 followed by a storming first quarter,debt will be smashed down double quick time.As always GLA

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/1/2022 15:09

150p about to go on the run up to results next week possibly in todays closing auction.., the FY dividend is worth that on its own… :o)

[woodhawk] 20/1/2022 14:40

Even nicer to see a decent rise today.

[woodhawk] 19/1/2022 16:54

Nice to see an intra-day reversal in the share price today & back over 140p.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/1/2022 14:09

It is early days for Piaui, but our modest start up maiden income from this royalty is due in H1 this year, and looking forward to the full scale project production in 2024/2025 of 25,000 tonnes of Nickel / 900 tonnes of Cobalt is going to get very interesting even at todays prices, Nickel just blew through USD23,000 a tonne as warehouse inventory levels are dropping faster than it can be produced and stockpiled, our 1/2/3/4% stepped royalty is going to generate some serious income for us.. :o)

Our Q4/FY update in a week or 2 will set us up nicely for the next share price leg up after a little pullback today following a couple of weeks stronger buying..

[metalsinvestor] 18/1/2022 20:49

Interesting point you make.
However in my experience bankers transact deals - corporates and executives are the real dealmakers. The latter must also be the folks to sell this to the market, not the bankers.
I suppose this is my point. Dont we want to see a strong executive who understands the mining space who will create and lead deals not just a finance specialist as AP has a good CFO already.

[sammu] 18/1/2022 16:07

You say "We need a salesman and a dealmaker wrapped into one!"
Surely this is almost the definition of an investment banker?

[metalsinvestor] 17/1/2022 19:47

I agree with you we need someone with experience in metals and with friends at the correct corporates. My concern is they have an M&A Investment Banker as a Chairman and he hires another IB guy to run the company. The Board has noone with any corporate experience when Stan leaves.
What AngloPacific needs to do is grow, grow and grow again. The market for royalties is now sooper competitive and with inflation coming will become even more so. Little old AP is too small to be competitive.
Doing a deal with an Orion or Glencore (as you say) is a natural next step. However they need an experienced hand who is someone who can sell such a deal to the market. Lets hope the Board agrees and hurries up to get someone on Board to do it. If they hire an investment banker I am a seller!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/1/2022 13:03

#Woodhawk, I would expect a back to normal year for dividends, we know 2021 was compressed/delayed to satisfy the VB debt covenant leverage multiples, and we know that 4 * 1.75p plus a FY final will be the norm going forward..

2021 FY accounts in May, XD June, payment July is more likely for 2022 then Sept, Xmas, March for the rest..

[the deacon] 17/1/2022 12:02

*Randy Smallwood rather than Randy Johnson. You can tell I'm looking forward to the baseball season starting again!

[the deacon] 17/1/2022 11:55

*extensive technical teams - not expensive (though that's usually the case anyway!)

[the deacon] 17/1/2022 11:53

I agree with you to a point, but the vast majority of the very successful royalty and streaming companies are led by a finance guy (or girl). Franco Nevada, Osisko, Sandstorm and others are all led by folks with significant finance backgrounds. They are, of course, supported by very expensive and knowledgeable technical teams. One that bucks that trend is Wheaton - where Randy Johnson comes from a geo background. What is critical in my opinion is someone who has knowledge and experience of leading a royalty and streaming company. Someone who has the network and relationships already forged with the likes of Orion, Glencore and many of the other finance houses or key large scale mining companies which'll open doors to new deals in the future. Trident, for example, are benefitting from such ties - where the likes of their Chairman and ex-Glencore head of strategy adds a lot of weight in potential deal making.

[woodhawk] 17/1/2022 11:41

LLB,

Do you think that we will be reverting to a more normally scheduled quarterly divi in the coming year? 2021 was rejigged somewhat. When might the next 2022 ex-divi date be expected?

[metalsinvestor] 17/1/2022 11:41

Lets hope so.
We need a real dealmaker in the hotseat but also someone who has experience of speaking/liaising with investors to ensure the price moves to support more deals. We need a salesman and a dealmaker wrapped into one! I fear this is not an investment banker as we already have one in the current Chairman.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/1/2022 11:25

#MetalsInvestor, on the contrary, we had a recent RNS and were advised that in the Q4 update coming in January we will have news/developments on our new CEO then..

[metalsinvestor] 17/1/2022 11:11

Directors are buying shares but not making a decision on replacing the CEO. Julian will go in a short while and we have not heard anything re a new CEO. I have heard they are going to hire an Investment Banker which means that the Board will not have a single person with any experience of actually running a company.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/1/2022 11:06

Holders should consider the basket of commodity prices for royalties we now hold, but compared to 2010 when the post crash share price rose from 2008 / 75p to 2010 / 360p, and ask are we better positioned now or worse..?

RBC and Berenberg are light IMO.., but after we report earnings in a week or 2 with a strong FY dividend we will see those forecasts reviewed I am sure.. :o)

[woodhawk] 17/1/2022 10:48

Yes, I wouldn't turn my nose up at a 65% share price rise from here, with some nice fat divis along the way. Bring it on!

[haywards26] 17/1/2022 10:41

That's a nice price target! :)

[woodhawk] 17/1/2022 10:18

Today:

RBC RAISES ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP PRICE TARGET TO 240 (220) PENCE - 'OUTPERFORM'

[johnrxx99] 17/1/2022 07:43

LLB - I wish I could see 3 years ahead, I'd be very rich indeed. However, I guess we are glass half full and half empnty. I'm the latter :-)

Berenburg's 180p, with which I agree, is short term, not 2023. Anyway.