Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/3/2022 12:42

#podgyted, that would be tremendous, prices are probably not sustainable but who knows with the state of events unfolding as they are, I will happily settle for USD10M a month to smash the debt down and cover the dividend 5 times over, there are not many companies that can do that.. :o)

Our Q1 update will be very revealing..

[podgyted] 05/3/2022 11:40

I estimate currently an average price for Q1 of $35.1 for cobalt and $428 for cooking coal - assuming averages of $36.6 cobalt and $470 c coal for March - latter does not include the current spike). These compare with my estimates of $29.5 and $343 for Q4 and suggest an increase in Q1 revenues to $44m from $38m - increase would have been larger but Narrabi falls out.

As an esoteric exercise applying the $36.6 and $470 assumed march averages to the rest of the year and holding everything else equal, I get revenues for the year of $185m.

That would be nice - but who knows what will happen.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/3/2022 10:51

With our commodity basket prices as they are, it is conceivable APF could be cash positive with zero debt by year end 2022 and what a position of strength that would be, just as interest rates begin to climb to combat inflation, and they are prevented from eroding our profits.. :o)

[podgyted] 05/3/2022 09:17

Noticed that - seemed a bit too good to be true. However it has stayed up there having drifted back slightly to $578.

Don't know - Dalian futures are rising sharply, but no where near as fast as this.

(Edit: Should mention, in the few months I've been involved ( including past research) the AUS futures tie-in with the figures APF disclose)

[otemple3] 03/3/2022 16:34

My feed is saying AUS coking coal just hit $596 - is that right......??

[the deacon] 03/3/2022 16:25

Enjoyed that interview with Marc. Hopefully we'll hear more from him. Heck, I might even start to warm to him...

[cocopah] 03/3/2022 14:54

#LLB Chuffed to bits that Rob interviewed our new CEO (he asked for suggestions a little while ago and I suggested Marc). Really happy that the message is continuity, smashing the debt down and looking for value propositions in line with current investment criteria. I would imagine the latter will still prove hard to secure in the immediate time horizon, whereas the former will be easy to achieve given current commodity prices. I thought Marc came across well, of course it will take a little time to settle into JT‘s shoes!😎€077;🏻

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/3/2022 14:06

Nice to hear Marc on his opening interview on a different platform, but importantly the commitment to smashing the debt down is first and foremost on the agenda, and at the 2022 run rate that should amount to around USD10M a month impact, and in doing so freeing up capacity/capability to add future royalty/streams..

At H1-2021 debt was -USD121M/150M, cash +14M with net debt of -108M.
FY2021 should be around -USD86M, and then -10M a month from 2022 so we are making real headway now while Kestrel delivers in spades.. :o)

End of April for the FY2021 results/dividend
End of May for the Q1-2022 update

[stevie blunder] 03/3/2022 12:58

Mark Lafleche interview

[podgyted] 02/3/2022 08:55

Coking coal through $460/MT. Kestrel having quite a swansong at the moment!

?? China may well benefit from being the swing producer covering the Russia/Ukraine deficit - so looking for more coking coal ??

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/2/2022 15:12

#Andydaf, I like to moderate my expectations, but somewhere close to your figure is entirely possible, but wholly dependant on Coking coal prices holding up where they are now, and what a result that would be wiping out the VB debt in 2022 just as Kestrel starts to wind off, almost perfect timing leaving us in a very strong position to add new royalties and/or higher tiers to existing ones..

USD25M covers the dividend at 9 pence per share, and from 2021 earnings of USD85M, I think we can reasonably expect the 1.75p std dividend and a 2p FY bonus for 9 pence total..

[andydaf] 26/2/2022 16:47

Yes LLB,i have penciled in around 150 million dollars hopefully for this year.Cobalt has suprised me to the upside and with a fair wind debt will be payed down.The new ceo should really have little to do here except follow through with previous investments.Always nice to get a dividend and i am sure 9p is on the cards for this year.GLA

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/2/2022 14:51

#Andydaf, a conservative estimate for FY2022, we know Q4-2021 income was USD38M, Q1-2022 should be stronger, and will set our stall out for the year, the pathway to multiples of Q1 is there for the taking if Coking coal prices stay where they are giving a FY well ahead of USD100M, prices can be volatile, but given the strength even before recent events they have every chance or remaining elevated for us to sell into...April for the FY and dividend May for the Q1 update

[andydaf] 26/2/2022 14:26

Always hard to predict but with geopolitical events its hard to see commodity prices not rising strongly.People should check how much of the worlds hard and soft commodities russia and ukraine export.Therefore i feel LLBs 100million revenue may well be short of the mark.As always good luck all

[husbod] 26/2/2022 13:13

I wonder if he meant Anglo American?

[woodhawk] 26/2/2022 12:35

Brief mention of APF at Motley Fool today, in big company!

"With spare cash flows getting bigger, sustaining high dividend yields becomes far easier. That’s why firms like Rio Tinto, Anglo Pacific, and BP all offer attractive dividend yields today of 8.7%, 6.3%, and 4.1% respectively"

[husbod] 26/2/2022 12:04

Promising mini consensus LLB.Personally I would prefer it to stay at current levels till 6 April so I can transfer some from trading to ISA account but I think there's a dividend due early April so will have to leave it where it is till then anyway.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/2/2022 10:18

#Husbod, interesting, AFAIR RBC/Berenberg were also on 250p, and we were hoping that the VB acquisition would in turn give us greater exposure in Canada where royalty companies trade on much stronger PE ratios, so it looks like that could indeed be highlighted by being on the RBC radar..

April for the FY2021 results
May for the Q1 update

Much depends on Kestrel for 2022, but a portfolio USD100M income looks very likely based on todays prices..

[husbod] 26/2/2022 09:03

Small mention in yesterday's IC. Apparently The Royal Bank of Canada (no less) has increased its target price to 245p. That would do nicely.Also mentioned the timely acquisition of Voiseys Bay cobalt stream last May.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/2/2022 08:43

#The Deacon, absolutely, and the GRR at Piaui is structured in tiers for this reason starting at 1.25% then 2/3/4.25% so we can buy in stages as cash becomes available and they ramp up, the income from Kestrel over 2022 will smash the debt down and that in turn unlocks the door to new acquisitions using the same facility, the USD20M for Incoa tranche2 will be 1st and sometime in H1 best estimate..

Trident an Wheaton have shown there are plenty of deals to be had, we just need to reduce debt a little 1st, which is gathering momentum now.. :o)

[the deacon] 25/2/2022 08:31

There's no obligation for APF to fully repay their credit facility. Indeed, it's commonplace for the bigger precious metal royalty players to continually refinance as they grow through acquisition and income growth. There's every opportunity for APF to plug any earnings gap with further royalties or streams. I'd like to see APF increase the GRR on Piaui, but that may not be the best course of action immediately. I've seen many examples of where an 'aggressive' royalty/stream hinders the operator in the early days of production. It's crucial that BRN are able to effectively ramp up and reinvest into the operation in the early days. I'm sure Marc and team will play this sensibly. In the meantime, there's absolutely no reason why APF can't continue to grow as Kestrel comes off. Mantos is growing, Voiseys Bay too. Piaui will hit small scale production soon. One or two smart acquisitions will help here.

[cocopah] 24/2/2022 15:21

#LLB, I hear you, however I still think there may be a small dip in income in 2024, nothing that will impact the divi or our prospects moving forwards. LTH so short/medium term movements in the share price are somewhat secondary for me. I think that the geopolitical mess will mean the share price (as for other shares) will remain subdued for a while. Aside from the appalling consequences for Ukrainians, it guess it is likely that natural resource prices will move upwards even more.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/2/2022 21:32

#Cocopops, Cobalt just went through USD 73,000 a tonne, and as the UG production grades filter through into VB income the lower the Kestrel runout impact gets.. Their will be some Kestrel income during 2024/2025 as they get into the 500 series panels, but hard to quantify it this far outWe also have 5 years runout income from Narrabri on top..I doubt Kestrel income is sustainable at such elevated prices longer term, but we are certainly smashing it right now in 2022 at the current rate when it matters most wiping out the VB debt ...

[cocopah] 23/2/2022 18:30

#The Deacon I guess the geopolitical conflict isn’t helping either. It is possible/probable that there will be a dip in income between the 2023 decline in Kestrel income and the contribution from our other royalties in 2024. IMHO we also need to continue delivering the current level of income to justify the current market cap and share price until the debt has been repaid.🤷R05;♂️

[the deacon] 23/2/2022 10:04

Yes sorry, PR. The newsletter is nice, but in this day and age folks like to consume podcasts, video interviews etc etc. As I said a while back I'd like to see them do the rounds on the North American PR circuit. I hope Marc is up for that.