Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 02/11/2021 07:25

Berkeley Energia.

Trading halted on ASX pending RNS announcement.

That looks like trouble - especially considering who the counterparty are.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[sporazene2] 01/11/2021 18:13

Cocopah I agree $70m seems to be the minimum target for 2022. I have read reports that are saying 2022 coal is already forward sold so that should give the bod another year to line up the business to be without kestrel income for a period of 10 years. I hope this revenue replacement can be achieved with too much further dilution.

[cocopah] 01/11/2021 16:48

I hear you #LLB and hope that we can secure income of $70m year-on-year, however this year has been helped by sky-high coal prices. Let's hope this continues and we see more rises in the cobalt price. Fingers crossed heh!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/10/2021 14:00

#Cocopops, the Incoa tranche2 (USD20M) funding will be done in H1-2022 and will start adding income next year, then last a century so this is a good start.

Berkeley Energia outlined the steps it is taking to overturn the unfavourable decision by the Nuclear Safety Council and that in accordance with Spanish administrative law a hearing process in relation to the decision has been opened.

BRN1000 is now fully funded, in September 2021 BRN completed the final part
of a USD52M equity raise to enable it to finalise both the Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) and to bring the PNP 1000 in to production. USS25M of the funding came from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation through BRN’s funding partner TechMet Limited - APF bought USD2M of the equity too on top of its current 1.25% GRR. The target date for first nickel is in the second quarter of 2022.

Incoa can be bought from income, BRN from debt but both adding income from 2022 at USD3 or 4M a year between them for starters, then (+USD70M) into BRN will take us up to 4.25% NSR on 25,000 tonnes from the full scale project a couple of years later adding around USD20M+ a year or about the same income as VB..

5 years Narrabri earnings will smooth the portfolio income curve, Kestrel is a full year for 2022, a half year in 2023 and not a lot in 2024, but there is also another full years income to come from the 500 series panels too as the long wall moves here from 2024 best estimate.

[cocopah] 28/10/2021 23:05

What worries me more is that investors see through three/four good income quarters (assuming the coal price stays high) before the Kestrel income starts ebbing away and also see that (despite the increase in VB contribution) we will need support from another sizeable revenue stream to support a £300-400m market cap!

[quepassa] 28/10/2021 16:30

The market assesses ESG not just on ownership of coal but also on income derived from coal.

As there will still be a multi-year income trail from coal, that doesn't necessarily give a green light to ESG-aware institutional investors.

That is why the Narrabri sale is seriously flawed and hasn't fooled anybody. The management need to renegotiate the deal as a clean-break.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[cocopah] 28/10/2021 15:42

This ESG re-rating is going well! 😂😂😂 oh well as long as we manage to eek-out 7p or 8p divis a year.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/10/2021 18:30

#Cocopops, very close to it yes, net debt at Q3 of -GBP60M/USD82.5M but with the November/December dividend payments of 1.75p or USD5M each outstanding..

Deleveraging per quarter at close to +USD20M after dividends for Q4/Q1 is possible smashing down the -USD114M/150M debt ahead of the FY dividend payable, building up plenty of headroom for the Incoa/BRN royalties that need funding next and we should be able to keep hold of LIORC which is adding dividend income so if we can keep it, we should IMO..

3 dividends coming shareholders way in a little over 3 months.. :o)

[cocopah] 25/10/2021 17:29

#LLB, am I right in thinking that net debt will now be down to about £60 million?

[officehead] 25/10/2021 15:30

Thanks LLB - medium term looking very good with high co/co prices- perhaps the opportunity to increase the FY dividend to 4p !

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/10/2021 14:49

FY2020 income of GBP37M/USD46M, 2021 YTD portfolio income of USD46.85M, and a similar Q4 puts us on target for ~USD70M with potential for headroom on Cobalt/Coking coal prices, and gains of +52% so the FY dividend (3.75p..?) will be very well covered.. :o)

#officehead, the longwall changeout was Q3 last year too so we are into panel 410 now with each panel taking about a year to mine out, so we will have a full 2022 year, about 50% in 2023 and tailing off in 2024 with some residual royalty areas left in the 500 series panels on top when they get into them..

[officehead] 25/10/2021 14:30

I note in the proactive investors interview that it was confirmed that the Long Wall change out at Kestrel took place in quarter 3. Not an expert, but according to site below takes 4 to 6 weeks.
www.miningst.com/category/longwall-mining/change-out/

So Q3 royalty was based on production for probably a max of two months. Q4 royalty will combine higher coal prices, with very much higher production ... all things being equal.

Would $15million royalty for Q4 Kestrel be achievable?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/10/2021 10:02

Q3 Proactive interview just out... :o)



Anglo Pacific’s pro forma leverage will be 3x at close of the VB deal with rapid deleveraging to 2x expected to occur by mid-2022.

Our debt deleveraging profile is ahead (-USD114M/150M) of where we expected to be and less than 2x at end of September heading into a very strong 4th quarter..

[beltd] 25/10/2021 09:52

Llb impressed with that!

[masurenguy] 25/10/2021 09:07

Positive update with Voisey Bay now contributing 31.5% to the overall income stream. Current broker shareprice targets are Berenberg 170p and RBC 220p. Despite this the shareprice still remains in the doldrums @ circa 134p but the yield at that level is still 5.5% and higher if you bought in earlier. I consider this a solid income share with subsequent increases in the shareprice as an added bonus!

[tommygriff] 25/10/2021 09:01

Maybe should have spun this out into a seperate entity

[bountyhunter] 25/10/2021 07:54

Yes a very upbeat trading update with a strong Q3 and looking excellent for Q4 as well. Good to see the Cobalt investment doing so well.

[sporazene2] 25/10/2021 07:42

I had $40m pencilled in for H2 - looks like we will be well ahead of this. Very upbeat comments from JT and year end cash balance going to be healthy. I am not too fussed about the 9p dividend this year; I would be happy with 1.75p in Q4 and put the surplus cash to good use. Would be great to see us head back towards 155p resistance.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/10/2021 07:40

That will do nicely…, and bang on expectations .. USD 23M income.. :o)

A few selling the news which was predictable, but with Q4 looking as strong or better to close the year out, I would expect buyers to return soon..

[takemetooz] 25/10/2021 07:12

That seems to be an excellent trading update, great growth possibilities and a good divi as well :-)

[andydaf] 24/10/2021 20:20

QP thanks for your time and thoughts,must be a busy time organizing air travel and restaurants if your attending cop26,its apt that cop26 is taking place in scotland where they have cleared 17283acres of forest and downed 14 million trees to site onshore windfarms.You are correct though APF has done a bit of greenwashing at a price and i fear they will still not attract the esg investment community.As you know there,s a wall of money waiting to back suitable esg projects.Unfortunately these investors as boris and sunak have found out are requiring guaranteed returns through subsidies.Why risk your money on risky mining operations where anything could go wrong when you can get a good return by forcing the poorest to part with their money to the wealthy elite.The coal royalty has now gone for better or worse so requires no further discussion.Shame about those trees QP might have absorbed some of the excess co2 thats going to be expelled in glassgow.APF is now a play on green metals,the share price will be determined by earnings and market sentiment.Interesting times are about to be upon us with the energy transition and i am sure its not going to be plain sailing.Will the rest of the world let the consumer economies of the west plunder the earths commodities using printed money or will they demand something more tangible?But have no fear Boris with his coherent policies and grasp of the detail ably supported by Biden if he can remenber what day of the week it is and why he,s there i,m sure cop26 will be a great success.As alwys good luck with everyones investments and dyor

[quepassa] 24/10/2021 11:20

The deal is seriously flawed in my view.

There will still be thermal coal income for several years to come which will continue to act as a drag on share price and continue to be a major deterrent for many ESG-aware institutional investors.

Management should in my opinion go back and try to renegotiate the sale as a clean-break, for the benefit of the share price. Even if the deal costs them more money than it already has done.

The market would get behind APF if they cleared out fully thermal coal - even if it means the yield suffers in the short term. Investors will pay up for Green Energy Metals and accept lower yields for higher growth.

Narrabri has been a disastrous investment for shareholders.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[beltd] 24/10/2021 10:29

I fully understand the feeling on coal at driving the mining off it underground, no pun intended. However it is worth remembering that maybe it is ESG at fault more than APF. They after all have articulated a strategic intent to take this approach. Those like myself who remained holders should therefore not complain, we held knowing the strategy. I don't think APF is ultimately big enough to shake a fist at ESG but I do question Tragers choice of language in the rns. Delighted to have done a deal that has cost us many millions. To cheer myself up I look at the price of the materials we have in our portfolio. Ultimately the world needs to transition in all but very fews opinion.

[husbod] 22/10/2021 14:29

Sorry to bang on about this but we get a mention in this weeks MoneyWeek under an article entitled Coal makes a comeback. Depressing statistics like India gets about 70% and China about 60% of their electricity from coal fired power stations, thermal coal prices are up from $57 a tonne a year ago to about €240 a tonne and Chinese officials say an extra 100 million tonnes of coal is needed to plug power stations shortages. Coal generated more than 14 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2019( compared to 12b for oil and 8b for gas) so the environmental argument against coal is clear. There is growing pressure on City firms to divest: Anglo Pacific has become the latest miner to announce the sale of its thermal coal assets.However the article concludes that whilst the environmental case against the fuel is clear the drive for prohibition often sees blue chip firms offload their coal assets to less reputable operators: good for their environmental reputation, but bad for the planet.Also bad, it would seem, for the off-loaders share price in our case.