Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[cocopah] 12/1/2022 18:23

Finally we breached £1.40 at close of play! 👏🏻👏🏻8079;🏻

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 12/1/2022 17:43

Nice to see a 140p UT and 141p+ paid intraday, the run up to news will make for an an interesting 2/3 weeks for the share price and direction after confirmation of the years income/dividend .. :o)

[woodhawk] 12/1/2022 09:06

I'm primarily here for the divi income, but a nice uplift in the share price won't go amiss - wouldn't like to see APF taken out on the cheap.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 12/1/2022 09:01

#Woodhawk, 1st time over 140p (briefly) for a long time indeed, and with what we know is going to be a really strong years income set to be announced in only 2-3 weeks, a very strong possibility of a 3.75p final dividend, could we see 150p in short order too..?

We can also estimate that 2022 is going to be a repeat years very strong earnings, so a solid case for buying the share for the income and CG, recognised by Berenberg at a 180p TP..

[woodhawk] 12/1/2022 08:42

Be nice to see the share price finally break out above 140p again. It's been a long time coming.

[johnrxx99] 12/1/2022 04:55

7th Jan - BERENBERG RAISES ANGLO PACIFIC GROUP PRICE TARGET TO 180 (170) PENCE - 'BUY'

Just spotted.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/1/2022 15:22

The bigger the better for shareholders with the final dividend anywhere between 1.75p - 3.75p but equally the sooner the debt is smashed down, the sooner the company becomes more valuable and the share price should start to reflect this, so swings and roundabouts so to speak, only 2/3 weeks and we will know.. :o)

[cocopah] 10/1/2022 14:43

#LLB If my memory serves me correctly the new guidance was between 30% and 60% (as I said giving them a wide moat). I guess the final dividend ‘bonus’ will be dependent upon how much they want to reduce the debt. 🤷‍a94;️

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/1/2022 09:27

#Cocopops, the dividend policy is 1.75p per quarter now as we know, with a bonus FY results dependant, I remember Kevin saying in an interview somewhere a FCF dividend payout ratio but can not find it to quote.., was it 30-50% FCF...?

#illswilgig, that reason may become clearer shortly I think, whilst Varda is light on metals/royalty/streaming experience it is notable that for the next year or 2 we need to steer the ship in a straight line smashing debt down, and adding to the Incoa/BRN royalties with what I expect to be limited divergence from current strategy..?

[illiswilgig] 10/1/2022 08:54

After recent changes and additions the BoD now has huge experience. And contacts. It is not clear to me how much is down to the executive team and how much the chair and BoD. In my experience most board members are employed for their industry contacts and eperience. It would certainly be an expensive waste if contacts and experience of the BoD are not being used to the full.

I do think that Varda has been brought on for a reason - but I was tending towards future Chair rather than CEO.

In my view they need a capable CEO but most importantly one that is willing and able to work closely with the Board. I wonder to what extent that might have been a part of the timing of the current CEO deciding to 'step down'? I suspect that he wants more autonomy than his current role allows him?

cheers

[cocopah] 09/1/2022 21:17

#LLB I suspect most of us are here for the dividend and in that respect it was interesting to note the changes to the payout ratio communicated in the last update. Previously there has been scant regard to following the payout ratio communicated (thankfully !) however I believe if changes are communicated it is incumbent on the BOD for them to be relied upon. Of course the change gave them a wide moat, nevertheless it helps LTHs to see the direction of travel. I have no complaints about performance or the transition it’s just a point worth mentioning IMHO. On the CEO front are we be better with somebody with precious metals experience or somebody versed in the metals required for the green economy?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/1/2022 13:44

Our chairman commented 'after an extensive search process' for a new NED we do not really need, I suspect there is a clue there and this is a staging move to integrate Varda into the company as an NED advisor and chair of the remuneration committee then after 3 months evaluation by both parties against what we need from our new CEO in the transition period up to JT leaving end of March, if all parties are happy then I would not be surprised to see Varda as CEO designate in the coming Q4 update..

#FatEddy, using your earnings calculations estimate that puts us at on or around USD76M earnings, and just over the top end of my USD70-75M expectations, I hope you are correct and then the 3.75p final dividend is in the bag..!

It is going to be a long wait to month end now for news, but worth it .. :o)

[podgyted] 09/1/2022 09:45

Taking Q3 and simply uplifting the prices for Kestrel and Voisey's Bay by 38% and 25% (my estimates) I get a Q4 portfolio contribution estimate of @$29m. (Obviously I have no idea about volumes)

Coking coal is creeping up again and at $378 is above my Q4 estimate of $343. Cobalt has simply gone up since October currently standing at $33.9 compared to my Q4 estimate of $29.5.

All looking good to me - I think they should take their time getting the right CEO - currently the business is looking after itself.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/1/2022 17:40

Cocopops, no, not yet, that will have to wait for the Q4 update in 2/3 weeks then to be confirmed in the FY accounts so a 1.75p final plus bonus tbc..

Each penny costs the company around USD3M, so it is a trade off between the final payout and smashing the debt down and we will have to wait and see, but earnings are +50% up on last year so we are very well positioned for the final which ever way it goes, and we got a 3.75p final last year.

The Group will release its Q4 2021 trading update in January 2022, which will include further details on the Chief Executive Officer transition.

NED Mr Stan | Spruce Bluff has been adding and up to 378,000 shares
NED Patrick Meier also picked up 100,000 mid December now up to 437,000 shares
NED Varda Shine tbc but how soon will she buy in..?

23.08.2021 - Patrick Meier, Chairman said we are very pleased to welcome Varda to the Board following an extensive search process
23.08.2021 - Varda Shine commented, I am delighted to join the board of Anglo Pacific at such an exciting time for the Company and I look forward to being part of the journey and supporting the strategy and growth ambitions
25.08.2021 Julian Treger indicated that he wishes to step down from his role as CEO..

Is this more than a coincidence..? she is ex CEO of De Beers Diamond Trading Company (DTC), and we know we have an update coming here this month, possibly already settled in .. ?

[cocopah] 08/1/2022 15:26

#LLB Is the final dividend bonus confirmed? If so, I missed that.🤷‍;♂️8580;

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/1/2022 09:27

#Cocopops, our Q4 update is getting ever closer, and it will be very interesting to see where the share price is on new ISA day, but given the below I would expect to see some upward momentum .. :o)

FY income should be somewhere between USD70-75M
Plus any payments that may have been received from the Narrabri sale in the quarter
A 3.75p FY dividend (1.75p plus bonus)
Incoming CEO update

Progress at Cadence and our Amapa royalty

[cocopah] 05/1/2022 19:24

I think that the January income update and news of the incoming CEO will move the share price meaningfully one way or another. If it stays in this range I’ll be more than happy to fill the ISA in April … the income for the foreseeable means a safe, reliable and good dividend … hard to come by elsewhere IMHO.

[r2oo] 05/1/2022 10:52

Meant 140p

[r2oo] 05/1/2022 10:52

It would be nice if we could break through and hold above 40p this month. Quite a bit of resistance at thee level!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/1/2022 14:22

How many of JTs shares get sold/retained will depend on the extent of the Kings Chapel fund re-balancing JT wants to achieve, and how he pays for the Cotec holdings just bought, before starting as their CEO..

Cotec Holdings Corp. Announces Closing Of Private Placement, Immediately prior to the closing of the Private Placement, Kings Chapel International Limited (“Kings Chapel”), held no securities in the capital of the Company. Upon closing the Private Placement, Kings Chapel holds 2,303,030 Shares and 2,303,030 Warrants, representing approximately 9.99% of the issued and outstanding Shares on a non-diluted basis and 18.2% of the issued and outstanding Shares on a partially diluted basis assuming exercise of the Warrants held by Kings Chapel.

The Shares and Warrants were acquired by Kings Chapel for investment purposes and with a long-term view of the investment. Kings Chapel may acquire additional securities of the Company either on the open market or through private acquisitions or sell securities of the Company either on the open market or through private dispositions in the future, depending on market conditions, reformulation of plans and/or other relevant factors..

Diversification is key for any fund, but I am sure you know that and just choose to focus on the negatives instead of the positives, APF has never been better positioned and the incoming CEO will have an easy ride for a year or 2 with not a whole lot of decision making needed apart from sticking to the current strategy of adding to the existing positions JT has already set us up to run with... :o)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/1/2022 18:25

The Group will release its Q4 2021 trading update in January 2022, which will include further details on the Chief Executive Officer transition - no ambiguity here as I see it...

JT/Kings Chapel Ltd still hold 60% of his shares, and the NED buying / JT pension fund has absorbed some he sold..

Q4 update - 20.01.2020
Q4 update - 08.02.2021

[quepassa] 01/1/2022 16:37

The real question is what caused the change in intention from keeping 75% of pre-existing to significant.

A potential overhang of several million shares will continue to weigh heavily and undermine sentiment. Combined with ongoing uncertainty about future direction of corporate strategy under new management,the prospects for 2022 appear to me to be markedly unpropitious.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 31/12/2021 11:09

#Cocopops, debt at H1 was around -USD125M / with net debt of -109M, and debt interest comes straight off the EBITDA so with:

FY2021 EBITDA of USD75M less 25M to cover the dividends + costs
FY2022 EBITDA OF USD75M less 25M to cover the dividends + costs

The FY financials will give us a much better idea of reductions made this year and costs will control what is left over to smash the debt down, but yes there is room to cut it in half or to somewhere around -USD50M by FY22 with a tailwind from commodity prices.. :o)

[cocopah] 31/12/2021 09:50

#LLB given today’s announcement and the likely income for Q4, how much do you think we will be able to smash the debt down over the next 12 months? Thinking 50%.🤷‍♂️

[bhoddhisattva] 31/12/2021 09:13

In the light of the RNS re: sale of last coal stake, I predict Que Passa will be along shortly to tell us why it’s not really a sale, and if it was/is it’s a bad deal, and how APF is such a bad investment

But hey, we’re expected to believe he/she/it has no interest and is most definitely not short after all these years of posting here.

Happy New Year to all

DYOR OVNO IMHO Triple Salko and Pike Mines a Beer