Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[sporazene2] 24/11/2021 12:16

The Deacon, I was thinking about Vermelho too. I guess it depends how quickly HZM want to move on that asset.

[the deacon] 24/11/2021 12:13

Yes I agree that Piaui is the priority, but I don't think you can have too much nickel exposure going forward

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/11/2021 11:55

#The Deacon, a lot depends on how Piaui unfolds and scales up production, we have a tiered buy in option there for a GRR starting at 1.25% all the way up to 4.25%, and I see this getting taken up as the production scaling will start next year covering both the Nickel and Cobalt sales..

[the deacon] 24/11/2021 11:49

I noticed that Orion took an NSR on Vermelho too. I suspect that APF might be interested in either royalty on Araguaia or Vermelho in the not too distant future. Orion will have to move them on at some point.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/11/2021 11:15

Sporazene2, 2BN shares at 7p, I am sure that raised a few eyebrows.., 2 years mine build, 3/4 years for debt repayment, and any over runs, I can see 6/7 years before a dividend there, which when squared up against the more diversified 7.5% paid here every year make the HZM risk look less attractive..

Cobalt up to USD 63,000 per tonne now with Piaui also adding Nickel/Cobalt 1.25% GRR income from 2022.. :o)

LIORC declared CAD 2.10 per share payable on October 26th inside our Q4, and USD1.65M in the pot..

[dogberry202000] 24/11/2021 11:08

Cobalt Futures up another 1600 quid in London All good!

[sporazene2] 24/11/2021 11:04

HZM announced their funding package for their Nickel mine construction. I think it will be quite a while now before their shareholders see a return given the scale of dilution and debt in place now. Certainly highlights the lower risk nature of the APF business model

[the deacon] 23/11/2021 08:55

Would like to see APF talk about its pipeline a little more. Pasafino/Hummingbirds announcement on Dugbe being a prime example of this. Appreciate the company isn't one to RNS every little detail, but I like that other royalty co's keep the market updated on development stage assets. Gives the perception of attentiveness, and informs a generally ignorant market

[quepassa] 23/11/2021 06:59

11213 refers

[cocopah] 23/11/2021 01:09

#LLB not sure why the share price is so weak, income looks good for the next 5 quarters so either it’s the debt, the CEO announcement or the lack of news on investments. Disappointed doesn’t cover it. 🤷‍a94;️

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/11/2021 14:19

#Sprozene2, an interesting development and we have yet to see if there will be any impact on the project from the broader implications of the ministers position..

Canariaco Norte PFS progress report highlights:
260M lbs Cu / 117,000 tonnes per year | resulting in USD5.5M income to APF per year
39,000 oz Au per year | USD 340K
911,000 oz Ag per year | USD 115K

There is nothing priced into the share at this early stage but over time the 0.5% NSR does have some strong income upside for us if/when it gets developed..

So at todays prices Canariaco could be worth another USD6M a year income to us on top of as Kestrel winds off and the more the better..

The share price is softer than I had hoped for heading into Xmas, but we have 2 more dividends to come before the FY in Q1.. :o)

[sporazene2] 22/11/2021 09:39

I see that Hochschild having some trouble in Peru, I hope this doesnt impact Candente which could be a bluebird for us over the next 3-5 years.

[sporazene2] 18/11/2021 23:00

coking coal futures look like the have come off quite a bit in the last couple of weeks Cocopah (I dont have live prices) but on the flip side, Cobalt at 61K per tonne now which is very good news.

[cocopah] 18/11/2021 20:41

The slide from May has been relentless … we must be doing something wrong!🙄€584;

[the deacon] 18/11/2021 13:21

CRU Group have cobalt as one of their top picks over 2-3 year horizon. They see a tripling of consumption in the medium term from strong battery demand. https://youtu.be/w5KU4fXBbA0

[illiswilgig] 14/11/2021 09:54

There is not enough cobalt being produced to satisfy the exponential growth of battery production for EV's.

As the cobalt price rises it will stimulate more production - but that is limited and unlikely to meet demand - the only alternative is to design batteries that use much less or zero cobalt.

But the solid state battery is not a magic bullet. There is no indication that a cobalt-free solid state battery with similar characteristics to the current top of the line cobalt-nickel battery will be commercially available at scale and a similar price in the next decade - though lots of claims are being made.

Solid State batteries have been around for a long time. They power pace-makers and other critical safety but low power applications. As yet there is no commercialised solid state lithium battery - and just because its solid state it does not mean that the solid electrolyte is inflammable or that no Cobalt is used in the cathode.

It's easy to conflate the issues of solid and liquid electrolyte, organic and inorganic chemistry and cobalt and cobalt free cathodes.

In addition there are some very big production challenges to solve.

Here is an extract from a recent article in science daily:


Cathodes typically determine the capacity and voltage of a battery and are subsequently the most expensive part of batteries due to usage of scarce materials like cobalt -- set to reach a 65,000-ton deficit in 2030. Cobalt-based cathodes are almost exclusively used in solid-state batteries due to their excellent performance; only recently have organic compound-based lithium batteries (OBEM-Li) emerged as a more abundant, cleaner alternative that is more easily recycled.

Source - Science Daily

link

hxxps://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210618091657.htm

cheers

[dartboard1] 14/11/2021 07:12

What is the non developed world going to use for energy buywell... happy to hear any other reasonable options that they might be able to afford

[buywell3] 14/11/2021 06:14

Meantime re cobalt

Read what Sir James Dyson has to say about the future of batteries




buywell opines the gentleman is worthy of taking notice of and his actions re Dyson EV's speak volumes

[dogberry202000] 13/11/2021 15:53

Yes, that's the way I see things. Contextually commodities overall are coming off of a bear market low base after the last top in 2009. With rising inflation more readily acknowledged next year and beyond APF are well set, with a likely rising dividend over the coming years.On another note the short term chart arguably shows an inverted head and shoulders and with seasonality for commodities set to kick in over the next few months APF should do well. This is a quality company and if I did not own some shares I would be anxious to get in here.

[husbod] 13/11/2021 10:53

Reason for Friday's fall - we're mentioned in IC. Just a couple of lines in an article entitled Long Term commodity trends offer growth potential.Says we reported a strong Q3 with royalty revenue surging on the back of higher commodity prices.Also is one of his commodity based portfolio.Can't see our remaining coal asset putting off the righteous. given that it's such a small part of the mix.

[quepassa] 13/11/2021 08:56

-Long-tail of thermal coal income will continue to deter ESG-aware investors
-Diminishing future royalties from cash-cow Kestrel
-Management uncertainties - no incoming CEO yet announced
-Potential change of strategy with new management adds to uncertainty.
-Significant floating-rate debt in a rising interest rate environment
-Affordability of generous dividend payments
-Poor track record of delivering growth in share price.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[cocopah] 13/11/2021 08:41

IMHO I generally find the thread on here very good with people prepared to give sensible and different thoughts on the direction, performance and value of APF. Given that the company have now delivered/are delivering on income, does anybody have any ideas why the share price is languishing at this level? I would’ve thought a valuation around £1.40 to £1.50 would be a fair reflection of current and near-term future income. Is it the debt overhang or waiting for a new CEO? Thoughts would be appreciated as usual. You can never say never on whether to hold a stock indefinitely (for the foreseeable future it won’t make a difference to my investment) I’m genuinely just interested.

[the deacon] 13/11/2021 08:13

JM have thrown in the towel simply because they're so far behind their Asian competitions when it comes to battery development. LFP is the biggest threat to the use of cobalt in batteries. The big players like CATL, LG Chem etc all concentrating more attention on alleviating the range constraints associated with LFP, but LFP won't be suitable for use in all modes of transport, so nickel based cathodes will retain a big market share. Tesla, Panasonic and many others favour a nickel rich cathode. Ultimately it won't be a 'one size fits all' solution. Anyone that believes that really hasn't got a grasp on the sheer scale of the differing applications that require battery tech, including solid state.The other key aspect to note re: Voiseys Bay is that it's a nickel mine. If the cobalt price took a tumble for whatever reason then that won't make the operation there uneconomic. For as long as nickel is required then Voiseys Bay will deliver vast quantities of cobalt too as a by-product, and I'm sure you know just as well as anyone else that cobalt isn't reliant on battery technology for continued demand. With Voiseys Bay and soon to be Piaui delivering critical battery material revenue to APF (and I'm sure there'll be further royalties and streams to come), I believe the future is very bright.