Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[johnrxx99] 21/10/2021 04:39

Sogoesit - couldn't agree more.

[cocopah] 20/10/2021 13:48

Judging by the market reaction so far, the potential ESG uplift is muted! The market will mainly judge APF on its royalty deals, its income streams and how well debt is being serviced. I'm not sure the deal was helpful on any of these issues. Perhaps we need to accept the reality that a long-term market cap in excess of £300m will require little debt and revenues of c$60m a year. Not sure we are heading in that direction ... yet. I think the dividend (for which I am invested) may well not be much higher than 7p next year, a 5% return on an share price of £1.40. Not bad, but not screaming out either. I await Q3 income with baited breath:) GLA.

[sogoesit] 20/10/2021 10:36

Always interesting to read the discourse on this thread as, in the main, it certainly educates me.

But there is an issue which seems to ignore that someone has to pay for the global poorer to become richer or, potentially, for the richer to become poorer.

Nigerian Professor Okereke calls this "Just Transition".

Morality:

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/10/2021 19:31

#Phillis, the company does not need to raise in any way, but we did do a 5M share buyback in late 2020 when the share price was around 100p and these shares are held in treasury now, ideally placed for us IF a II wants to invest directly into a greener income fund for a c7.5% return, they would not be able to hoover this many shares up on the open market without sending our share price into orbit, or it would take them some months to do by stealth and still set the share price off while they did it, so my bet is these will get sold for a premium at some point.. :o)

We had a 20% MCAP placing earlier this year to fund the VB acquisition..

[phillis] 19/10/2021 19:03

LLB
Why does the Company need to raise money through either a share issue or sale of share held in Treasury


“With upside from what I think will be an unequal/over size quarter from VB, and Narrabri which I have left at the same as Q1, and any treasury share sales.. :o)

[the deacon] 19/10/2021 09:06

Compare that projection LLB to the numbers released by Altius Minerals for Q3. Approx US$16m of royalty revenue, yet Altius sits at an approx £400m mcap. The only significant difference between the two is that Altius has more of a pipeline than APF. Nevertheless, I think it highlights the headroom here.

[andydaf] 18/10/2021 20:00

lets hope so LLB,i am expecting a strong Q4 followed by a reasonable Q1.It would pay a bit of debt off and help fund incoa.JT has done a fair job here but in a way i hope APF crack on and find a new ceo now.Let the new man bed in with a couple of fine quarters.as always good luck all

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/10/2021 18:56

2 weeks out from our Q3 update but with potential for:

Kestrel| USD10M
Voiseys Bay| USD5.5M
Narrabri| USD0.8M
Mantos Blancos| USD1.5M
Maracás Menchen| USD0.8M
Four Mile| USD0.1M
Dividends - LIORC & Flowstream| USD1.4M
Interest - McClean Lake| USD0.6M
Principal repayment - McClean Lake (nil tbc)
EVBC| USD1M
Cost of Cobalt stream sales at 18%| -USD1M
Total portfolio contribution| USD20.7M

With upside from what I think will be an unequal/over size quarter from VB, and Narrabri which I have left at the same as Q1, and any treasury share sales.. :o)

[andydaf] 18/10/2021 18:00

husbod bang on the nail.Unfortunately the green brigade attract the biggest hypocrites.Greta,boris and carrie have more air miles than most.30000un delegates to fly to glassgow in a climate emergancy,whats wrong with zoom.The west has exported its emmisions and waste to china and asia for years.We are now expecting them to make the steel,electric infrastructure and batteries to enable us to carry on as normal whilst trying to deny them electricity and a tuk tuk to ride on.Whitehaven are still going to mine that coal,asia is still going to burn it.APF have done a greenwashing deal and its a bad one.When people preach the green agenda on here i suggest they look at themselves first,do they need to travel by jet,can,t they make do with locally grown food,do they need a tesla knowing the payback time is 120000miles and they live in chelsea.For the west to try and deny the developing worlds people a better life is the biggest hypocrisy of all.My morals are clear,capitalism is a force for good,it will be a long journey to a greener world.Theres only so much copper,lithium,cobalt etc to go round.My guess is the west will consume most of it,therefore the rest of the world will need fossil fuels for the forseeable future.My morals are clear i want every person to have a better life whether they live in delhi or derby.For the green brigade i suggest you take a long hard look at how much of the worlds resources you consume before preaching to a person who lives in the thirld world who walks everywhere,grows his own food and only wants a lightbulb for the night.All of us with shares are lucky in life and i wish everyone good luck with their investments wwhatever they are

[husbod] 18/10/2021 16:18

Absolutely, but there is no point in ditching a good investment simply because some Swedish school girl has tugged on your moral heartstrings.We have to be realistic about what people will accept and living in an unheated, unlit house is just not going to be accepted by the average westerner. The Chinese and people of India are even less likely to accept it when their standard of living is so far behind us. We polluted our way to comfort so it's a bit difficult to preach to them however urgent the situation is.

[johnrxx99] 18/10/2021 09:13

Yes, as we burn the future, someone else will realise the profits, but not your grand children.

Assuming all your sperm count is not zero, try and get some morals in your investment life - it is not solely about money - unless your are over the pond that is.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/10/2021 09:06

The proof is in the pudding for the share price .. :o) and we will shortly see the impact of not holding Narrabri, I do not like the idea of giving away an income stream unless we can substitute it with a better 1, and with the USD20M Incoa coming funding in H1-2022 needed to maintain banking covenants and leverage multiples to enable dividends, it does make sense to make the switch from coal to calcium carbonate..

Pandering to the ESG movement without good reason would not be justifiable for an investment income based business as the coal royalty will live on, someone else realises the profits, and with zero net impact on the carbon emissions, with evidence emerging now that the planet is just not positioned ready to go green yet, 1st sign of power supply weakness and we (UK) have just brought back online a coal fired power station from standby to plug the gaps, it is a work in progress but reality is we are decades away from giving up reliance on coal/oil/gas, if ever, but we are making inroads towards a better greener balance and helping, while China/India are not even paying lip service to climate change, and just building more coal fired power stations to grow their energy supply and fuel growth..

[cocopah] 18/10/2021 08:45

#Andydaf I share your concerns on the loss of revenue (it’s a bit early to judge the impact on the share price but early indications is that there has been no effect). IMHO the sooner a new CEO is appointed the better (JT has been a good steward but the uncertainty will start to weigh on the share price the longer the search goes on). FWIW my view is that the needle will only move positively with any momentum on the share price if we smash the income predictions talked about on here. 🤞🏻🤞🏻

[andydaf] 17/10/2021 17:22

FWIW i think the sale of the narrabri royalty was a shocking deal.JT struggled to justify it on proactive and i,m not sure it was his decision.The coal will still be mined so i fail to see the esg gain.20 years of future income has been sold for a pittance.Whitehaven get all the upside and APF stand to lose if coal prices weaken.SP has risen so others think differently.On a plus side cobalt is up and i still feel h2 will be very strong.GLA as always

[beltd] 17/10/2021 16:09

Thanks Llb great post

[husbod] 17/10/2021 16:06

I was a bit queasy when GLEN acquired the coal assets of one of the majors earlier this year but it's proved to be a sound investment. Sadly, for the planet, coal demand is going to be high for the foreseeable as both China and India, amongst others will be dependent upon coal fired power stations for years. All those clever and vastly overpaid fund managers who glowed with self righteousness when they ditched BP, Shell and other polluters are now looking foolish. That'll teach them to be trendy rather than looking at physical reality.

[beltd] 17/10/2021 12:34

Indeed! It's going to be fascinating to see how much of a deadweight on the share price our thermal coal was. From a PR perspective its a well timed disposal I suppose, and at least some strong metal prices and dropping inventories should also be a warmwind on our necks.

[bountyhunter] 17/10/2021 12:12

Lol! What is the carbon cost of politicians and journalists from around the world jetting to COP26 and back I wonder? Perhaps it should have been organised as a virtual summit with that in mind.

[beltd] 17/10/2021 11:52

Shame we can't capture all the hot air that the politicians will create at Flop26 and give it to the Chinese with a request to not build the several hundred coal fired stations they are planning.