Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 06/10/2020 10:00

Lefrene, no, the Azeris have been bombing N-K proper, including its capital and civilian houses/infrastructure.

The lands between the Armenian Republic border and N-K are needed to provide a safe corridor.

It makes no sense for Armenia to concede those lands without a peace agreement as it would put N-K in harms way.

[gold finger 1] 06/10/2020 09:57

Katsy6 Oct '20 - 09:42

Covid isn't paralyzing anybody's economy, it's governments total overreaction that's the problem.
-------------------------------

so true.

[lefrene] 06/10/2020 09:55

casual47, as I understand it the lands between Nagorno Karbak and the eastern Armenian border were occupied by Armenians after 1994 driving out approx 800,000 Azeri's. This is what the fighting is about, the Azeri's want their homes, and lands back, the Armenians 30 years ago didn't care what happened to the Azeri's from whom they stole their land and homes. I don't believe the Azeri's are intent on driving Armenians out of Nagorno Karabak, but they do want the military to leave, and thus restore civil administration to Azerbaijan. The grand words of the UN at the time were not followed up actions on the ground, no doubt because at the time they were bogged down in the Balkans making another hash of things. The Armenians are defacto invaders and occupiers of land that historically was Azerbaijan, and which has been internationally recognised as being illegally occupied by Armenia. It's not as if Azerbaijan is invading Armenia, but the danger is that if Armenia doesn't desist, they will provide the excuse for Turkey to invade Armenia, and then we will have a major war. All the players must know this, one hopes the Russians will persuade the Armenians that there's no future in trying to maintain an illegal position. I doubt the Russians would assist the Armenians unless Armenia itself was invaded, and even then they might take the attitude that they brought it upon themselves? Like everyone else I hope it's resolved asap with minimum misery, and that all the hard work done by AAZ can continue to support the local community, rather than be lost to missiles.

[donald pond] 06/10/2020 09:50

Except Afghanistan is a huge country at a strategic crossroads. NK is an enclave the size of Somerset. But Az and Arm need to find a way of living next to each other. They'll never like each other but Greece and Turkey manage it.

[fuji99] 06/10/2020 09:46

A long conflict will degenerate into a non-ending terror war like in Afghanistan - knowing Iran and Turkey are nearby and watching. Peace and negotiations are the only solutions.

[katsy] 06/10/2020 09:42

Covid isn't paralysing anybody's economy, it's governments total overreaction that's the problem.

[zangdook] 06/10/2020 09:41

The Armenian exclave of Artsvashen, which has been occupied by Azerbaijan since around the time N-K first blew up, is very close to some of our licences.

[fuji99] 06/10/2020 09:35

Why I am really optimistic the conflict will end through negotiations ? 1/ Russia and Iran do not want a war near their doorstep. 2/ Winter coming. 3/ Covid is paralysing their economies. So with what money and human resources will they continue fighting ? No neighboring country will benefit from a long conflict at their borders. So only negotiations for peace will stop suffering in that region.

[casual47] 06/10/2020 09:33

How would Armenia "retreat from lands" and by doing so leave over 100k Armenians stranded and open to whatever the Azeris want to do with them?

It's not going to happen.

Putin has been in direct contact with Armenia. There is no such direct contact from him with either Turkey or Azerbaijan, it's only on lower diplomatic levels.

Russia will wait until the last minute to intervene as they are supposed to be one of the guarantors of the peace process. As soon as they step in it may make going back to peace talks impossible.

What is likely to happen is that Russia will send sophisticated weapons and mercenaries to help Armenians if it starts to look like N-K is losing its grip (which is far from the case now).

Iran has also been rumoured to be on stand by to send weapons across its shared border.

If there is no major progress soon by Azerbaijan then Turkey might be tempted to take a more active role which would be a whole other wasps nest.

Anyone wishing for anything but return to peace talks thinking it would be better for the shareprice here is nuts.

[lefrene] 06/10/2020 09:28

Perhaps there's not much point in announcing jorc figures just now, any benefit would be lost to the current situation. I guess Armenia hoped to swiftly draw others into their quagmire, with any luck once they realise they are on their own, they will retreat from the occupied lands.

[theprovosts] 06/10/2020 09:14

Thanks, looks like the disputed territories are mainly to the south then? Can anyone point me to a good post or document regarding the fundamentals of the mine / leases? Future EPS estimates etc. Would love to troll through the thread but Advfn doesnt have the best way of filtering through the chaff, i did used to like the old InteractiveInvestor forum for seeing only highly ranked posts, not to be anymore. Very much appreciate it. GLA.

[gold finger 1] 06/10/2020 09:14

Well i just bought another 1437 shares, at 1.1079p
I am happy to take a nice divi here.
Risk,yes but is there not risk in any share.

[terropol] 06/10/2020 09:07

theprovosts, Most of the personell are from the nearby town. Gedabey. About 1000 people in total.

[mad foetus] 06/10/2020 09:06

Ever watch the league of gentlemen? It's a local mine for local people

[theprovosts] 06/10/2020 09:02

Can anyone enlighten me as to the workforce of the mine? Im assuming its mainly Azerzis? Sorry im no too familiar with this geographically. Thanks

[2sporrans] 06/10/2020 08:54

Looks like the Azerzis are continuing to advance, their main drive being to the south
of the NK zone.
Reclaimed a small town and a dozen or so villages, by their accounts.
This is not NK province territory as such, it is part of the swathe of surrounding land
the Armenians conquered in the 90s, that had been essentially occupied by Azerzis rather than Armenians.

Question is, how far will the Azerzis push this and possibly another advance before they consider they are ready for ceasefire and negotiations?
I don't pretend to know the answer.
Perhaps the arrival of winter will impose a limit on the advance[s], if other factors don't beforehand? Hopefully well before.

Meanwhile the conflict may broaden further, civilians taking the brunt of it as shells and rockets land near or upon key infrastructure etc.

That's how it's looking to me, from reading several diverse sources.

fwliw Remain firmly of view that AAZ assets and personnel are highly unlikely to be directly impacted.
However, the fear-uncertainty-risk discounting may cause selling to exceed buying for days, weeks even.
Bargain fundamentals from buyers perspective.

[silverspoon2009] 06/10/2020 08:53

Seriously oversold and due a strong bounce, the RSI is the lowest since 2015 to put it into perspective.

[pogue] 06/10/2020 08:50

Regards AAZ I have had look where this war is going and I am not optimistic of it being over by Xmas I dont see a massive missmatch, Turkey's input will be the deciding factor I feel however how much they will put in the field I dont know currently it does not appear to be much. Happy to hear from more military minded individuals though on what I post below.

A browse of Wikipedia and forces.net gives an idea of at the relative strengths of the forces in the field in NK.

Karabakh
The Karabakh army has around 20,000 active soldiers who are well trained and well equipped with the latest in military software and hardware. Their heavy military hardware includes: 316 tanks, 324 armored vehicles, 322 artillery pieces of calibers over 122 mm, 44 multiple rocket launchers, and a new anti-aircraft defense system. In addition, the NKR Defence Force has a an air-force of 2 Su-25s, 5 Mi-24s and 5 other helicopters. They did run out of ammo last time there was a spat but this has been remedied I believe.

Armenia
The Armenian army has a policy of developing its armed forces into a professional, well trained, and mobile military. In 2000, the Centre for International Studies and Research reported that the Armenian Army had the strongest combat capability of the three South Caucasus countries' armies (the other two being Georgia and Azerbaijan). CSTO Secretary, Nikolay Bordyuzha, came to a similar conclusion after collective military drills in 2007 when he stated that, "the Armenian Army is the most efficient one in the post-Soviet space". This was echoed more recently by Igor Korotchenko, a member of the Public Council, Russian Ministry of Defense, in a March 2011 interview. The Armenian army in 2017 was roughly 19,000 conscripts and 23,000 professionals with in 2010, 20 T-80 tanks, 137 T-72 tanks, 8 T-54/55 tanks and 80 BMP-1's, 7 BMP-1K, 55 BMP-2 and 12 BRM-1K. Wheeled APCs reported included 11 BTR-60s, 21 BTR-70s, 4 BTR-80s, 145 MT-LBs, 5 BMD-1S, and 120 BRDM-2 scout vehicles.
The Armenian Air Force consists of 15 Su-25 ground attack planes, 18 Su-30 jet fighters, 1 Mig 25, 16 Mil Mi-24 helicopter gunships, 6 L-39 trainer and attack aircraft, 16 Yak-52 trainer aircraft, 3 Il-76 cargo planes, 18 Mil Mi-8 transport helicopters, and 10 Mil Mi-2 light utility helicopters. There are an additional 18 MiG-29 fighter jets of the Russian 102nd Military Base stationed in Gyumri. It should be noted Armenian equipment is not that modern though.

Azerbajan
The Azeri army numbers 56,840 and has 220 main battle tanks, an additional 162 T-80's were acquired between 2005 and 2010,595 armored combat vehicles and 270 artillery systems. The air force has about 106 aircraft and 35 helicopters. The Azerbaijani Air Force has around 106 aircraft and 59 helicopters. The Azeri Air Force uses MiG-21, MiG-23, Su-24 and Su-25 aircraft, MiG-29 and Il-76 transport aircraft. The MiG-29 have been designated as the standard aircraft for the AzAF.
Azerbaijan's helicopter force consists of a single regiment with around 14–15 Mi-24, 12–13 Mi-8 and 7 Mi-2 and 24 Mi-35M (Hind-E) gunships.
They have increased the military budget from around $300 million in 2005 to $2.46 billion in 2009 so may have improved a lot but I dont feel this is a one sided war.

Turkey
It dwarfs the other 3 armies that are involved. There are 355,000 active military personnel, I cant find anything on actual army only combined strength. It has the 15th-highest number of active soldiers in the world though. Turkish Land Forces have 2,622 tanks, 8,777 armoured fighting vehicles, 1,278 self-propelled guns, 1,260 pieces of towed-artillery and 438 multiple-launch rocket systems. The airforce has 206 fighter aircraft, 80 transport aircraft, 276 training aircraft and 497 helicopters.

Turkey in December 2009 signed an agreement on military assistance with Azerbaijan. The agreement envisions Ankara's supplying Azerbaijan with weapons, military equipment and, if necessary, soldiers in case war with Armenia over Karabakh resumes, so this was a war waiting to happen all sides have been getting ready for this for a long time.

[tradeforce] 06/10/2020 08:43

I have been selling down around 40% of my holding here over the last 10 days as this uncertainty has been dragging on the progress of the share price. It has been hard as AAZ has been good to me, but it is still currently my largest holding.

I have been lucky enough to divest all of my sales into OMI and SOLG and I expect both to continue on to reach new recent highs, and although I stayed with AAZ for the divi capital growth can be very satisfying and profitable.

[riggerbeautz] 06/10/2020 08:26

Don’t you get talking sense on these boards fuji.

[2sporrans] 06/10/2020 08:26

Baz

JORC this week or next, going by what Bill Morgan said ~fortnight ago.
The JORC as such complete now i believe; the LOM [extension?] the wip.

Last year the Q3s released on 15th October.