Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[diamondstar1] 04/7/2018 14:34

Hi Greendragon,

Yes, I am still fairly bullish on Amryt. Personally, I think that Amryt is a very good buy at these low price levels, especially if it 'double dips' to 14p - the previous low. My main reason for being bullish - is I'm a firm believer that the key active ingredient for Episalvan - betulinic acid - has genuine effects in improving wound healing (not only that, but wide list of other pharmacodynamics effects, including anti-inflammatory, anti-cancer and anti-viral effects).

I believe that the results from previous Episalvan trials are also genuine results i.e. these are 'true positive' results and not a 'false positive'. The treatment effect has been consistent across several Ph II and III clinical trials (including partial thickness wounds), with circa 20-30% improvement in wound healing.

I believe that the share price can recover very quickly if there is positive news flow e.g. recruitment of patients for AP102 or good sales figures for Lojuxta. My anticipation is that the interim results for EASE will be positive - they will let the study complete. My rationale - is due to the consistent clinical results of betulinic acid in wound healing - hence, I believe there will be some evidence of efficacy in the interims (that will prevent early termination of the study). My hope is that positive interims later this year will drive the share price back up to 20p+ or even 30p+ levels. Am I expecting the full EASE results to be positive? I'm slightly more cautious on this one, and place the probability of success at around 60%. Firstly, because Zorblisa failed in Ph III due to a positive effect in the placebo arm. If EASE has a similar positive effect in the placebo arm - there is also a possibility that it may fail, DESPITE a positive effect in the active (Episalvan) arm. Anyway, I'm hopeful that some good news will come soon... and that Amryt shareholders will be rewarded for their patience - with positive interims towards the end of this year!

[greendragon777] 02/7/2018 15:57

Haha....I'm like a beetroot too Paps but we have to soak it up while it lasts especially after the long winter we had! Steaks on the BBQ, beer and sunshine.....if Carlsberg did summers..... :-)

Cryptomania seems to be on hold for now Paps. IOTA still adding great talent to their team but no major announcements of late. I would expect some interesting developments with regards to Qubic over the next 6 to 12 months, we'll see.

Everything seems to have gone very quiet with AMYT, I wonder is there something brewing. October seems like a long way off (assuming the interims will be announced around then) in the absense of any significant news. I wonder is Diamondstar still bullish on AMYT albeit 50% of the bull he was intially?

[papillon] 01/7/2018 17:57

O/T. Cryptocurrencies

[papillon] 29/6/2018 18:59

I sat out in the midday sun far too long, greendragon, in between the WC football matches and am now as red as a beetroot! I think I must have got sunstroke! I think Noel Coward was thinking of idiots like me when he penned the song "Mad Dogs and Englishmen" :-)

[greendragon777] 28/6/2018 14:55

If this weather keeps up Paps I'll be 'gone til November'......January, February, March, April, May......I'll be gone til November! 😁

I'm out in the middle of Lough Ree in the Irish lakelands at the moment and it's absolutely bliss! 😎

Hope you're catching a few rays too Paps! 😃


"Gone Til November"......

[papillon] 26/6/2018 15:56

Yawn. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

2 trades yesterday. 3877 shares in total.

2 trades so far today. 9614 shares in total.

Someone needs to put AMYT in touch with DIGNITAS, because it's close to death going by the abysmal volume. :-)

[bermudashorts] 25/6/2018 08:01

Yes, definitely a mistake - haven't seen that before. Guess someone just clicked on wrong ticker code!

[solomon] 25/6/2018 08:01

No mention of AMYT in the body of the RNS text - just an A in the epic that looks like it got mis-assigned

[waterloo01] 25/6/2018 08:00

Nothing to do with AMYT?

[solomon] 25/6/2018 07:58

no mention of AMYT in the body of the RNS text

[dogwalker] 25/6/2018 07:40

Surely some mistake.

[waterloo01] 25/6/2018 07:36

Wasn't aware of this trial till now. Looks encouraging.

[greendragon777] 23/6/2018 08:42

LMAO @ ball and chain comment! It'll certainly seem like that if the AP101 doesn't come good! 😁

Yes Cryptos are taking a bath Paps and I'm down considerably on my remaining capital. That said it's tiny a fraction of my investments and doesn't cost me a thought. IOTA is getting dragged down with Bitcoin as usual but that's Cryptoland. IOTA are making great progress though, they'll have the first real life use case witH Volkswagen in mid 2019! 👍

[papillon] 23/6/2018 01:01

Yes, greendragon, we could have to wait until the interims are released in September before we see any share price action. Fingers crossed we get good news released before then

O/T. I see sll the cryptocurrencies are taking a right old hammering, including IOTA.

[papillon] 22/6/2018 17:42

Or a ball with a chain attached, Rathean!

[rathean] 22/6/2018 09:30

On the plus side it would appear that Amryt is immune to Trump unlike the rest of my portfolio. I wish someone would buy that bloke a ball on a string.

[greendragon777] 21/6/2018 18:16

You took the words outta my mouth Paps. I think we might have another few months snoozy time before we see any action but who knows!

[papillon] 21/6/2018 17:56

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....................zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[rathean] 21/6/2018 09:05

The World could be partying or burning but AMYT remains as unmoved as ever. Stoic or died months ago and no-one noticed ^_^

[greendragon777] 18/6/2018 00:12

PS- Great post by Diamondstar Paps, thanks for the heads up. He's very knowledgeable in this space and being a physician certainly gives him much greater insight. If he shared his investment portfolio in Pharma here I'd be tempted to copy it! :-)

[greendragon777] 18/6/2018 00:08

I guess we'll have to wait until September as you say Paps. Hopefully we'll have a positive guidance on Lojuxta sales for 2018 at that point. No point in having licenses in all these territories unless they are being converted in sales and hard cash but hopefully that's happening as we speak.

It would be nice to get confirmation of strong Lojuxta sales ahead of the interim trial results and then get a positive result for those too, that would give the share price a major shot in the arm. Badly needed too to stop the continuous slide downwards.

It could be snoozy time again until Sept/Oct but I have a funny feeling there will be something happening between now and then, who knows! In fairness they haven't been sitting on their laurels but there's a lag time on all the deals so far I guess!

[papillon] 17/6/2018 20:02

Excellent, knowledgeable, post by diamondstar on the lse bb in response to a couple of ignorant posts.

Diamondstar
Posts: 24
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 16.125
RE: AMYT Today 17:57 Hi Eshaitan & Bronxville,
I acknowledge that Lojuxta is an expensive treatment
- but this is a treatment targeted towards a very very rare disease ie HoFH, which affects 1 in a million population. In contrast, PCSK9 inhibitors are indicated for both HeFH (which affects 1:500 population) and HoFH. Efficacy of treating HoFH with PCSK9 inhibitors is limited by the fact that patients can be genetically LDL receptor negative or LDL receptor impaired. PCSK9 inhibitors (and statins) act mainly by upregulating LDL receptor, therefore this restricts the efficacy of this drug in the HoFH population. Meanwhile, Lojuxta is a Microsomal Tiglyceride Transfer Protein Inhibitor (MTTPi) which acts on a LDL-independent mechanism - hence is ideal for patients with HoFH. In order to reduce levels of LDL-cholesterol to target levels in HoFH patients, PCSK9i and statins maybe insufficient, and a MTTPi is required. The price of PCSK9i is dropping due to several PCSK9i on the market, and the fact there these drugs are targeted to a large population (HeFH and HoFH) - therefore there is economies of scale. Meanwhile, Lojuxta is the only MTTP inhibitor on the market, and is approved for HoFH (and not HeFH). In summary, it is not a simple case of cutting the price of Lojuxta down, such that every patient with HoFH will get treated. I’m UK, there are only about 60 patients with HoFH. It is wrong to assume that the pricing reduction seen with PCSK9 inhibitors is an indication that the price of Lojuxta needs to be reduced substantially. Lojuxta is targeting an orphan or very rare disease, therefore commands a premium pricing. These are my opinions as a physician in the Pharma industry.

[papillon] 17/6/2018 12:50

"If the business's valuation is justified by Lojuxta alone then if AP101 fails the share price shouldn't fall in theory......but I suspect the share price will fall by between 30% and 50% at least initially."

Analysts reckon the current AMYT Mkt Cap is "justified by Lojuxta alone", greendragon. They might be right, but then again they might be wrong. Don't forget some of those analysts receive money from AMYT, so they are not unbiased. There must be a signiicant portion of the current Mkt Cap attached to the EASE phase III trial so if analysts feel that the current Mkt Cap is "justified by Lojuxta alone" then either AMYT is seriously undervalued at the current Mkt Cap, or investors don't believe the analysts!

I think you are correct in that if it's cosidered futile to continue with the EASE phase III trial then the AMYT share price will plummet.

We wont know current Lojuxta revenue figures until the interim results are issued in September and the latest on the EASE phase III trial until October (probably). There's always the possibilty of a "wild card" RNS being issued between now and September concerning another Lojuxta type licensing deal. I have no idea of the likelihood that happening. It could be very low for all I know.

As far as I'm concerned my circa £5k investment in AMYT is a punt. A gamble, but one I'm prepared to make. If the gamble comes off I'll be delighted; if it doesn't, that's life!

[greendragon777] 16/6/2018 13:13

Thanks for posting Waterloo. If the business's valuation is justified by Lojuxta alone then if AP101 fails the share price shouldn't fall in theory......but I suspect the share price will fall by between 30% and 50% at least initially. Let's hope we never have to test this theory and we get a successful result.

We need to get a solid guidance on Lojuxta sailes for 2018 which I suspect they will give prior to the AP101 interim results so that in a doomsday scenario Lojuxta can hold everything together.

Like Ratheen, I've been doing a few top ups recently, just couldn't resist! :-) I might even have one or two more top ups left in me prior to October, we'll see!

If all goes according to plan, I think AMYT could be trading between £1 and £1.50 in 12 or 18 months time, maybe even higher if they can do a few more good deals, fingers crossed! :-)