Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[jimbobtechstock] 05/5/2018 06:03

If anyone missed my LSE post regarding AP102 and the questions raised over there regarding the draw-down criteria for the next tranche of the EIB loan I'll repost it here:

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I've been reading the annual report and it seems to answer one key question raised on this board a while back.

The issue raised here related to AP102 and how starting AP102 clinical studies was coupled to unlocking the next tranche of the EIB loan, according to the original terms of the loan.

As some on here suspected, it does appear reading between the lines of the annual report that AP102 has been de-prioritised. That could be because, as noted in the report, there's no patent protection, so would be reliant on Orphan status for extended exclusivity periods in EU and US. No concrete answers as to what and why but it looks like the newly-acquired AP-103 gene therapy will be prioritised.

Good news though re the EIB loan it looks like they have renegotiated the terms to decouple draw down from AP102 progress:

"In October 2017, the terms of the second tranche of €5m were amended by the EIB so the Group has the option to draw this amount down any time it wishes. "

And...

"The third tranche is conditional on the primary clinical endpoints for the EASE Phase III clinical trials in the US or EU being achieved..."

So really it's looking relatively solid on the finance for completing EASE.

Also I noted this (given my previous posts on this forum about the possibility):

"In the meantime, Amryt will continue to seek to in-licence further commercial stage assets to continue to grow our revenues and provide cash resources that will help support these development assets. Amryt has made excellent operational and strategic progress to date and we look forward to reporting on further progress as we continue to develop the business. "

As I've posted before, it would make a lot of sense to counter the expansion of the development arm from this new gene therapy with some way to expand revenue in the near term and keep the company balanced in that regards.

FWIW the new in-licensed gene therapy looks incredibly interesting with the non-viral vector technique.

[jimbobtechstock] 05/5/2018 06:00

Yes I think the clue is the 2x 8.38m share trades are a rollover, roll-up or Bed & X regarding the transfer of ownership of (presumably) Alan Harris' holding to whoever had worked them to the market.

So the real volume is far less.

Something been hanging on the share price like a lead weight, I had assumed 8 months ago it was the placing rumours after that came to light but even after the placing had settled (and II took a large portion anyway) the share price was still hanging heavy.

So hopefully this will let us move forwards now.

[papillon] 04/5/2018 23:17

“Som Sellers” Alan Harris, Adrian Daly and Stephen Lambert.

"Som Sellers" got 12,277,102 shares when Som was bought by AMYT. "Lock in" period for Som sellers" was 18 months from admission. Orderly market period was a further 6 months.

Alan Harris currently has 8,869,090 shares (3.23% of shares currently in issue). So if Alan Harris has sold shares it will have to be reported by the company via an RNS.

So "Som sellers" (including Alan Harris) got 12,277,102 shares. Yet today, between 2.30pm and 3.15pm there were 4 massive trades (all @ 17p) reported that totalled 23.950m shares (2 x 8.380m + 1 x 2.484m + 1 x 4.706m. Were they all sells? If so and JimbobTechstock is correct and the "Som sellers" sold all their shares over a period of months under the "orderly market period" arrangement who sold the other shares today? The 4 massive sells today (if they were all sells) totalled 23.950m shares. If the "Som sellers" sold all of their 12.28m shares that still leaves another 11.67m shares sold today. Who sold them? Did some of the AMYT "concert party" sell some of their shares?

It'll be interesting to see what is reported in an RNS next week.

PS. It seems rather strange that there were 2 identical trades of 8.38m shares @ 17p and the reporting time of these 2 trades was separated by just 23 seconds. If the trades weren't so large one would be tempted to say the trades were a rollover done by someone who originally bought on a T-20. We know that it's not a rollover, but could it be that it's someone selling 8.38m shares to a willing buyer of those shares? That seems the most sensible explanation, to me, of these 2 x 8.38m trades separated by just 23 seconds.

04-May-18 15:12:04 17.00p 4,705,882m



04-May-18 15:11:37 17.00p 2,483,837m



04-May-18 14:34:13 17.00p 8,380,000m



04-May-18 14:34:36 17.00p 8,380,000m

[papillon] 04/5/2018 18:03

Yes, you are probably right, JimbobTechstock. Excellent, informed, post! The "Market" (those in the know) has undoubtedly known about this "overhang" for months. Now that this "sword of Damocles" hanging over the AMYT share price has, in all likelyhood, gone we can now expect the AMYT share price to recover. Be nice to get in the 20's again. I'm pleased I've continued to hold all my AMYT shares and pleased I recently topped up.

PS Good timing by Rathean this morning with his 25k buy.

[jimbobtechstock] 04/5/2018 17:38

Looks like the seller clearing. Currently reporting volume of over 24 million! Som Sellers were locked in for 18 months from RTO then bound by orderly selling agreement until April.

Probably no coincidence with hindsight it's been traded back so harshly over the year despite the progress, esp on Lojuxta sales and this exciting new gene therapy platform.


Check under "Som Sellers" pg 39 of the admission doc.

Sets this up nicely for next week now assuming this is the back of the seller. Probably been worked for months through the company broker under orderly selling agreement maybe, or at least the market has been aware of this coming for months.

[bazworth] 04/5/2018 17:27

Some pretty large trades at the end of the day, let’s hope that they have cleared the way for a little upward movement!

[rathean] 04/5/2018 09:46

Looking at the chart there's a possibility of a lower share price but imo the risk is to the upside... but the real value here will be in the next 12-18 months as the phase 3 progresses and other licencing deals are struck, acquisitions etc. Quite exciting really, will be day trading elsewhere in the meantime.

[papillon] 04/5/2018 09:09

Your buy, first thing this morning, Rathean, seems to have triggered a flurry of buying!

[papillon] 04/5/2018 09:02

It's not unusual for buyers to be able to buy AMYT at the lower end of the quoted spread, Rathean and hence below mid price. In fact it's usually the norm!

I noticed your trade was 25k @ 17.02p. Presumably you raised the buying price with your trade because the next trade, 5 minutes later, was 10k @ 17.11p. Presumably that was also a buy.

I first bought shares in FAST in 2015 when it was effectively a cash shell and the shars were trading at a big discount to it's cash. I have hung around and bought more since the AMYT RTO because, like you, of the presence of the top quality BoD & management. I know Harry Stratford is only the non exec Chairman, but I doubt if he would tarnish his good name by associating himself with a bunch of charlatans. Also their lead treatment for EB, AP101, currently in phase III trials, has already been approved for PTW's (Partial Thickness Wounds) by the EMA back in early 2016.

[greendragon777] 03/5/2018 20:01

Yes Paps, big charge on IOTA as there are a number of new developments imminent. Could be another few months though before they are announced so wouldn't surprise me if it falls back before advancing again, we'll see.

@Rathean I think we're all a little baffled by the share price given the potential upside, That said, something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it so we can't argue with it. We just got to be patient and wait for the interims or hopefully some more licensing deals similar to Lojuxta.

[rathean] 03/5/2018 19:36

Why is the share price falling here, they have increased sales significantly, appear well funded to the end of phase 3 for the lead compound and appear to have a great team in place... what am I missing?

[papillon] 03/5/2018 15:04

O/T. Your IOTA is storming ahead today, greendragon. Up over 20% and hitting new highs.

[papillon] 03/5/2018 13:34

Did the AMYT share price bottom late last week/earlier this week? It looks possible.

[bermudashorts] 01/5/2018 19:14

This article is a few weeks old now but hadn't seen it before.

[papillon] 01/5/2018 18:46

We know that. justiceforthemany and I too think AMYT is a potential takeover target, but I can't see it happening anytime soon. Definitely not before the EB phase III trial results, IMO. We shall see.

[justiceforthemany] 01/5/2018 17:23

Amryt is chaired by Harry Stratford, who set up Shire in 1986.

Stratford also set up ProStrakan, a pharmaceutical firm also sold to the Japanese for nearly £300m back in 2011.

A hat-trick for the Japanese?

[greendragon777] 01/5/2018 15:43

Interesting Paps, thanks for posting. Joe Wiley certainly doesn't rule out a takeover bid. I think it's safe to say there will be no takeover bids this side of the interims and most likely AP101 approval (if it of course!).

If they bag another couple of juicy deals between now and then we can expect a pretty hefty price tag compared to where it's at today!

[papillon] 01/5/2018 15:13

I have finally got the link to work! If at first you don't succeed! :-)



PS. Latest trade is a small buy (5k) @ 16.88p. Will we now a recovery in the share price following on from those 2 large sells this morning?

[papillon] 01/5/2018 15:12

Link doesn't work on advfn, so I'll post the article in full:

Tuesday 1 May 2018 5:00am

Niche pharma firms are driving innovation and deals in the sector

Amryt is listed on London's junior market (Source: Getty)
Small, nimble pharmaceutical companies laser-focused on developing niche therapies are driving innovation, and deals, in the industry, the boss of a London-listed rare disease specialist has said.

Joe Wiley, the chief executive of rare and orphan disease firm Amryt Pharma told City A.M. a recent flurry of mergers and acquisitions in the pharma sector is propelled by larger companies' needs to fill up their pipelines with the groundbreaking medicines created by smaller firms.

"The industry generally is looking at more niche therapies, targeting more personalised diseases," Wiley said.

Read more: Biotech M&A heats up as Sanofi buys Ablynx for €3.9bn

"We certainly focus our efforts on areas of really high unmet medical need and that’s in our view how to be successful in drug development."
However, when it comes to his own company, Wiley said it is "hard to say" whether Amryt will be one of those companies gobbled up by a global drugmaker.

"We are building a sustainable growth business focused on rare and orphan diseases, and we see ourselves building that and growing that business through acquisitions and organically ourselves. We’re focused on delivering on that for our shareholders," Wiley said.
Amryt recently passed its two-year anniversary of a complicated reverse takeover through which its shares were listed on London's Alternative Investment Market (Aim).

The company, which has built out a commercial infrastructure across Europe and the Middle East, is focused on continuing to boost its business throughout 2018, including through the acquisition of commercial-stage assets.

Wiley said the firm will target US companies looking to establish a European presence. "We're actively pursuing that," he said.

Read more: Rare disease firm Amryt reveals a "major" gene therapy tie-up

[papillon] 01/5/2018 15:05

Very true, digadee. However M&A gets a mention in the following City am link on "Niche pharma firms" which concentrates on AMYT and Joe Wiley.

bidnolid
Posts: 258
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 16.75
City a.m Today 14:31 I'm not invested
here but was just reading this in the City AM

www.cityam.com/284954/niche-pharma-firms-driving-innovation-and-deals-sector

[digadee] 01/5/2018 14:58

what would a £46billion takeover of shire have anything to do with AMYT. Bit of a over optimistic ramp i think from justice :-)

[papillon] 01/5/2018 13:52

Some brave "bottom fishers" buying. Last trade was a buy @ 16.77p. 3 previous trades to that @ 16.73p, 16.66p & 16.66p were also buys.

PS. Presumably justiceforthemany is predicting a possible takeover of AMYT (Mulder on the lse bb seems to be suggesting that as well), but I see no evidence of that happening.