Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 10/7/2018 12:07

I'm afraid you'll probably have to wait for the EASE trial results before you see an "exciting" "rise" (or fall) in the AMYT sp, Rathean.

Unfortunately there is no current investor interest in AMYT, despite yesterday's positive RNS. It's just NOT exciting enough news to attract the pumpers & dumpers and rampers necessary to "ignite" the AMYT share price The £45m Mkt Cap doesn't help.

[rathean] 10/7/2018 09:43

Even a paragraph in the Telegraph today hasn't stirred this beast, back to slumbering until the next exciting 0.05p rise.

[papillon] 09/7/2018 14:46

AMYT have something N4P didn't have, Rathean. An approved drug (LOJUXTA) that is already generating revenue and has good growth propects. Hence if the EASE phase III EB trial is deemed to be a failure the resultant share price percentage drop should be cushioned by LOJUXTA. It will likely be much lower than that of N4P today.

Some think the £44.80m Mkt Cap of AMYT is justified on LOJUXTA alone. I don't agree with that, but I do think that very little value is currently being ascribed to the EASE phase III trial in the current AMYT Mkt Cap. Hence, IMO, AMYT is a far less dangerous gamble on trial results than were IMM, FARN & N4P because of LOJUXTA.

[papillon] 09/7/2018 12:44

I liked this statement in the RNS:

"Dr Handrean Soran, Consultant Physician & Endocrinologist at Manchester University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, added:

"NHS England's decision is a vital step in ensuring patients with HoFH have access to a new effective treatment option. Lomitapide works differently to other available medicines for this condition. Unlike currently available treatments, lomitapide lowers cholesterol in adults with HoFH by switching off the release of 'bad cholesterol' from the liver and reduces the uptake from the gut. The treatment has been shown it can enable more than half of adults with this life-threatening condition to finally be able to reach target cholesterol levels, previously thought not to be possible with current available therapies, and to substantially reduce their need for lipoprotein apheresis, a lengthy and cumbersome 'dialysis for cholesterol', available only in six specialist centres in the UK. This is very encouraging news for patients, their families and clinicians.""

From the Doctor's comments it appears that Lojuxta is more efficacious at treating adults with HoFH than the "current available therapies". I hope Bronxville on the lse bb takes notice of this because he has cast doubt on whether Juxtapid/Lojuxta was any better for treating HoFH than cheaper alternatives. The Doctor's comments and promise of NHS funding for Lojuxta contained in today's RNS should silence Bronxville's doubts!!

[rathean] 09/7/2018 12:28

Luck* stupid predictive txt

[rathean] 09/7/2018 12:27

No numbers but a clear steer that it will be revenue accretive next year, coupled with the Tories promise to up NHS funding. It's a great addition, not enough to see a re-rate here but raises it's profile a bit higher up the flagpole. I've been day trading N4P for some time, just look I didn't have a position there this morning... as high risk as oil exploration AIM stocks.

[papillon] 09/7/2018 12:17

Good news, but no numbers quoted in the RNS. Still mo Lojuxta revenue forecast for 2018.

Bad news for N4P shareholders today. Currently N4P share price down 57% on a bad news RNS; drug failure. Earlier this year N4P was one of the stars of the AIM biotech sector. It went from 6p in November to peak at 33p in February. First IMM, then FARN, now N4P. AIM biotechs can damage your wealth! Luckily I held none of these shares, but I do hold AMYT. Fingers crossed that the EASE trial is successful.

[rathean] 09/7/2018 09:05

Added 10000 at 16.47p, great news about UK licence and for me it builds confidence in the revenue generation needed to cover clinical trials. Becoming a rather compelling story imo.

[purple11] 09/7/2018 07:33

guess the 44m cap puts a lot of resistance into the mix.gl

[purple11] 09/7/2018 07:29

isn't that a Super Dupa rns complimenting the 4 midlde east dist. agreements recently signed?

[strangeman] 09/7/2018 07:14

Just be happy that something has happened. Maybe the background noise will die down for a day or two after this ?

[richpassi] 09/7/2018 07:10

Good news, but can't help dreaming .....if only this was for all patients being dished out Statins !!! Imagine the sales :)

[papillon] 06/7/2018 11:49

That's because you can buy at the lower end of the quoted spread, ab321; below the mid point of that spread. Not unusual for AMYT. In fact it's been the norm since last Septembers placing. Probably means the share price will drift lower in the absence of good news?

Don't forget the MM's only quote a spread, not a mid point of that spread. Sites like advfn just use the mid point of the quoted spread as an arbitary device to guess whether a trade is a buy, or sell. With your trade advfn, lse, etc have guessed wrong!

[alphabravo321] 06/7/2018 10:45

My 21,800 top up showing as a sell...

[greendragon777] 05/7/2018 12:22

Or as I like to put it DS....'jump off that bridge when we come to it!' :-)

[papillon] 05/7/2018 11:41

Yes you are correct, greendragon. Definitely sunstroke! :-) I've corrected my post.

[diamondstar1] 05/7/2018 11:32

Hi GD, I think this is a case of ‘Crossing the bridge when we arrive’. An increase in sample size will invariably prolong the study (and increase study costs). However, a study delay clearly is a better option (especially if it leads to a positive study results) vs. failure to meet Primary Endpoint.

[greendragon777] 05/7/2018 11:23

@Paps I take it you were referring to AP101 as opposed to AP103 Paps? I'll put it down to sunstroke! haha I believe we have another week of this nice weather, we're being spoiled this year although it was a harsh enough winter that seemed to never end! :-)

In fairness, you have demonstrated a serious amount of patience on this trade Paps. I guess you'll be in it for the guts of 4 years by the time it plays out fully next year. I sincerely hope you get rewarded well for your patience, it'll make it all worthwhile!

[greendragon777] 05/7/2018 11:17

Great insights DS, thanks again for sharing them with us here. It's somewhat comforting to know that there will at least be another crack of the whip so to speak if the placebo throws the trial off course a bit. If they do go down this route and have to increase the sample size, would this mean additional delays in getting the endpoint data due to increasing patient numbers etc?

[diamondstar1] 05/7/2018 10:51

Hi GD, Yes, I have some concerns about a substantial positive effect in the placebo arm in EASE, and also variability in the Primary Endpoint data (i.e. wound healing at 45 days). That's because we don't have much prior data on the 'placebo effect' in Epidermolysis Bullosa (EB) trials, especially at the 45 day timepoint. Zorblisa and Episalvan are pioneer drugs in this field. In certain diseases, it has been widely accepted that you can expect a substantial placebo effect e.g. trials involving antidepressants. Recently, the share price of Immunopharma (IMM) took a big hit after the release of its final results for their Ph III Lupus trial for Lupuzor. Market cap for IMM has dropped from a peak of £270 million to £30 million today. Again, a higher than expected placebo response was seen, therefore the trial did not meet its primary endpoint. Subanalysis of the results after the completion of the trial (i.e. post-hoc analysis) has shown significant efficacy in a subset of patients i.e. those who are anti-ds-DNA antibody positive. However, I believe that Amryt has one major advantage in the EASE trial. If a larger than expected placebo effect is seen in the interim results and there is still divergence i.e. greater effect in the Episalvan arm - there is still a potential option to increase the sample (study) size, in order to try to ensure that Primary Endpoint meets statistical significance. I don't think IMM had that option. In effect, Amryt has already had the chance to modify its study design once - by excluding EB Simplex patients (based on Zorblisa Ph III data). The Interim results for EASE provides Amryt a second chance to tweak the study, if necessary.

[greendragon777] 05/7/2018 00:49

Thanks Diamondstar, always good to hear your thoughts. Glad you're still a bull too, phew! 😁

The placebo aspect that you mentioned is worrying but I guess it makes sense from an efficacy point of view! As you say, hopefully it'll sail through the interims at least and we can take stock at that stage with regards the full trial results. It would certainly be nice to get a decent jump up in the sp, it would help cushion the fall if the trial were to fail at the last hurdle next year.

The waiting game continues! 😀

[papillon] 05/7/2018 00:05

I orginally bought FAST shares in early 2015, diamondstar, at circa 2p per share (16p following on from the 1 for 8 consolidation, which is today's sp, since it's 15.9p to sell and 16.1p to buy) because it trading at a substantial discount to it's cash. Following the divestment of it's O&G interests it became a cash shell. It then RTO'd and became AMYT. I've added since that RTO. All along, from early 2015 onwards to the present day, I've considered the shares to be a punt. Originally a punt on FAST's cash balance and then a punt on the phase III trial of AP101. I'm continuing to gamble on AMYT by holding for the phase III trial results. I'm probably less optimistic of phase III success than I was a year ago, but still sufficiently confident enough to continue with my gamble by continuing to hold.

Lojuxta revenue provides some support for the AMYT Mkt Cap, so I'm not expecting an share price collapse of FARN magnitude if it's consider futile to continue with the EASE trial.

I would have liked to see a Lojuxta revenue forecast for 2018 with the 2017 full year results. We had one last year. That makes me suspicious, but not suspicious enough to sell my shares. Anyway Lojuxta is a sideshow compared with AP101, even after the recent adjustments to the EASE phase III trial, IMO.